May is going to be an exciting month for political junkies. We’ve got a cornucopia of races to watch this month: two special elections, and a number of competitive House, Senate and Gubernatorial primaries.
Let’s take a look at the month ahead:
May 3: This Saturday, Louisiana voters will head to the polls in two congressional special elections:
- LA-06: Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux will square off with “newspaper editor” Woody Jenkins to fill the open seat of ex-Rep. Richard Baker. In this hotly contested race, Democrats have been blessed with the better candidate, stellar fundraising, and favorable polls. However, the NRCC and their allies have dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads painting Cazayoux as a serial tax raiser and a Barack Obama disciple.
We’ll find out on Saturday night if any of these attacks have made an impact. The most recent poll, though, shows Cazayoux with a nine point lead. SSP will be liveblogging the results, so be sure to check with us then. There will also be a special election to replace Bobby Jindal in LA-01, but this one should be a solid lock for the GOP.
May 6: While the eyes of the nation will be fixed on the Indiana and North Carolina presidential primaries, voters in these states will also be deciding a number of other hotly-contested primaries:
- IN-Gov (D): Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger will square off with former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson for the Democratic nod against Mitch Daniels. Schellinger’s had a big fundraising edge, but the polls here have generally been tight, with an edge for Thompson. This one could be close.
- IN-07 (D): Despite winning a March special election to fill the vacant seat created by his grandmother’s passing, Rep. Andre Carson faces a competitive primary for the Democratic slot on the November ballot. His strongest rival is former state Health Commissioner Woody Myers, who has lent his campaign a substantial amount of money. State Reps. David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays will also be on the ballot.
- NC-Gov: Democrats will decide a contentious primary between Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and State Treasurer Richard Moore for the gubernatorial nomination. Perdue has had the advantage in nearly all of SurveyUSA’s tracking polls here.
Republicans will also decide a primary for this office between Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and state Sen. Fred Smith (plus two also-rans). In the most recent SUSA poll, Smith was only four points behind the front-runner McCrory.
- NC-Sen (D): State Senator Kay Hagan and businessman Jim Neal will face off for the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole. While this contest was effectively tied for a while, Hagan’s large fundraising edge on Neal has been enough to buy her a 20-point lead in the latest poll.
- NC-03 (R): For a while, it looked like this primary might have been as heated as Andy Harris’ successful overthrow of anti-war moderate GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in Maryland. But Onslow County Commissioner Joe McLaughlin’s campaign against Rep. Walter Jones hasn’t gotten a lot of fundraising traction. It will still be worth watching to see just how tolerant GOP primary voters will be of Jones’ anti-war stance.
- NC-10 (R): While I don’t expect Air Force vet Lance Sigmon to topple the odious Patrick McHenry in the GOP primary, his campaign drew a fair bit of attention for his aggressive attacks on McHenry’s antics in Iraq (calling a security worker a “two-bit security guard”, and compromising troop safety by posting a video of an attack in the Green Zone). Democrats have a strong candidate against McHenry for the November election — veteran and hero Daniel Johnson — so Sigmon’s showing might give us a good reading on how damaging McHenry’s behavior has been to his re-election chances in this R+15 district.
May 13: Another huge day for political watchers, with hot races in Mississippi and Nebraska.
- MS-01: The big event. Democratic Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers has waged a startlingly strong campaign for the open seat left behind earlier this year when Roger Wicker was appointed to the Senate. Despite running in an R+10 district and being at a financial disadvantage, Childers edged GOP candidate and Southaven Mayor Greg Davis by a 49%-46% margin in the April 22 special primary election. Davis and the NRCC have fought back hard, trying to tie Childers to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama. But the DCCC is playing to win, and they’ve invested a whopping $1.1 million in this race. This one should be close.
- NE-Sen (D): Here’s something rare — a Democratic primary for a statewide office in Nebraska. Businessman and former Republican Tony Raimondo will compete with former congressional candidate Scott Kleeb for the Democratic nod against the Republican front-runner, Mike Johanns.
- NE-02 (D): GOP Rep. Lee Terry had a surprisingly close re-election campaign in 2006, winning his district by less than 10 points against political neophyte Jim Esch. Now, Esch is back for a rematch, but will first meet with Iraq War vet Richard Carter for the Democratic nomination. Between Esch’s name recognition and Carter’s weak fundraising, Esch is in a good position to win here.
May 20: There are four primaries in Kentucky and Oregon worth keeping an eye on.
- KY-Sen (D): Former gubernatorial candidate and businessman Bruce Lunsford and businessman Greg Fischer will face off against a slew of also-rans for the Democratic nomination against GOP obstructionist-in-chief Mitch McConnell. Lunsford has never been able to win a Democratic primary, but this might be his chance. Polls have shown him with a large lead against Fischer, whose campaign has yet to catch fire.
- KY-02 (D): Democrats will go to the polls to decide between state Sen. David Boswell and Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire for the Democratic nomination to contest this open seat left behind by the retiring Rep. Ron Lewis. Boswell was seen as the early front-runner, but his fundraising has been extremely sluggish ($30K to Haire’s $200K in the first quarter). Still, Boswell might have a chance based on name recognition alone.
- OR-Sen (D): Another big event, with state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and activist Steve Novick competing for the Democratic nomination against Gordon Smith. Novick has kept this a competitive race, airing quirky ads and winning several key newspaper endorsements.
- OR-05: With the retirement of Rep. Darlene Hooley (D), there are tight primary contests on both sides to succeed her. Democrats will pick between former Gov. Kitzhaber aide Steve Marks and state Sen. Kurt Schrader. Marks has picked up the larger share of endorsements so far, while Schrader appears to be the DCCC’s preferred candidate. (Update: As Kari notes in the comments, my statement about endorsements here is a bit off the mark. Schrader’s been no slouch in this department at all. My mistake!)
On the GOP side, voters will choose between ’06 nominee and businessman Mike Erickson and former Gov. candidate Kevin Mannix.
There you have it. May will be a month chock full of races worth watching. SSP will aim to liveblog as many of these races as we can when the results come in.
is also this saturday(may 3)
May will be a exiting month!
I think Cazayoux and Childers will both win which will be a HUGE blow to the NRCC. On May 6th I think the Indiana Governors race is too close to call and the rest will go to the frontrunner’s. Carson, Perdue, Hagan, Jones and McHenry.
In Nebraska Kleeb and Esch are running far better campaigns and will win fairly easily. Also Johans or whatever his name is has a primary challenger and it will be interesting to see how strong he is.
In Kentucky I think Lunsford has managed to steal this one which really pisses me off. Fisher has ran a terrible campaign and this was such a good opportunity. If only Horne had dropped out earlier we could have found a better anti-Lunsford canidate or even if Horne had stayed in. We would have had his back. He would have won. In the House race I think Boswell will win but it’s kind of hard to tell beacuse there hasn’t been any real polling or anything in the race.
Oregon is similar. The Senate and House canidates both don’t have huge sums of money and so they will likely be decided by voters who have not really formed a opinion. I’m rooting hard for Marks in the House race and the Senate race has just been hugely annoying. I like Novick but he has been running a nasty campaign and has said some stupid things. Merkly has run a bad campaign and has also been too negative but I think he probably has a slightly better chance against Smith. So I’m not quite sure who I think will win or who I want to win there. I just hope the party unites around whoever does win quickly. Right now if I had a guess I would say Novick would win but it depends on how effective Merkly’s ads are.
It will be a interesting month.
Is a douche. So, I was happy to learn we have someone to run against his ass. Now, if we could do something about Virginia Foxx…
What are the pros and cons of the candidates in both races. I do my best to keep up, but even polisci majors like me need to waste sometime writing papers and watching tv 🙂
I wrote a pretty extensive blog post today about why thats true in relation to our:
But in a nutshell Jeff Merkley is a progressive through and through who has delivered real meaningful progress for Oregonians. Jeff Merkley can and has run on that positive vision for Oregon and our nation where as his opponent in the primary doesnt have that kind of record. Remember that the only person that has ever beaten Smith is Ron Wyden who ran a positive only campaign. Jeff Merkley has the vision and the record to do the same.
“Marks has picked up the larger share of endorsements so far…”
That’s just not correct. Schrader has received just every single organizational endorsement so far. The big ones…
Schrader’s also received both major media endorsements so far: the Oregonian and the Willamette Week.
Schrader has the support of the State Treasurer, Randall Edwards, and the State Superintendent of Schools, Susan Castillo. Senate President Peter Courtney and House Majority Leader Dave Hunt (who are both in the district) have endorsed him – along with a huge raft of in-district legislators and local officials.
To be fair, Marks has two former Governors (John Kitzhaber and Barbara Roberts) and a half-dozen local mayors, but he’s got nowhere near the number of endorsers that Schrader has – and not a single organizational endorsement.
See for yourself:
Kurt Schrader’s endorsements
Steve Marks’ endorsements
Full disclosure: My firm built Kurt Schrader’s website but I speak only for myself.
i missed where you included it(my bad);la-01
James …
DKF will be liveblogging the results as well. The Sec State here has not done a very good job of making sure that the servers won’t crash. They crashed during the elections last fall, and again during the presidential primaries this winter. I’ll be front and center at the Victory Party liveblogging the results and the Party. You should be able to view it all on the front page of Daily Kingfish.
He faces a primary with Pat Flynn. Yeah he is going to win it but it will be interesting to see how many Republicans are not happy with him.
The field is large enough that I suspect Carson will win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s only a plurality victory. If that’s the case, and if his performance in November is as anaemic as his performance in the special, then I could see him being taken to the cleaners in a 2010 primary, when support would probably cluster around one anti-Carson candidate.