NY-13: SSP Moves Race to “Tossup”

In the wake of what appears to be a career-ending scandal for Staten Island GOP Rep. Vito Fossella, the Swing State Project is updating its NY-13 race rating from “Likely Republican” to “Tossup“.

If Fossella resigns (as is rumored), the special election is sure to be a top-tier affair in this D+1 district for both Republicans and Democrats.  Arcane rules will allow party leaders to choose their most favored candidates — which would allow Democrats to make an upgrade from their current field (Brooklynites Stephen Harrison and Domenic Recchia).  Should Fossella decide to serve the remainder of his term and then retire from the House, new candidates are sure to get in on both sides.

If Fossella does the unthinkable and continues his re-election campaign, he’ll stagger onward with deep if not mortal wounds. Again, we would expect new challengers to emerge, both Republican and Democrat.

Culturally more conservative than the rest of New York City, NY-13 still favored Al Gore in 2000 by eight points.  The GOP has a deep bench on Staten Island, but if Democrats can recruit a Richmond resident for this race, the outcome will be anyone’s guess.

7 thoughts on “NY-13: SSP Moves Race to “Tossup””

  1. and who the candidates are, I’d only put it as lean R.  But that’s my take.  

    Example: Patterson doesn’t call for a special election.  We nominate Recchia or Harrison, Republicans nominate one of their strong candidates.  

    We’ll see.  It’ll probably turn out in some way that is a toss up.  

  2. Staten Island Advance

    Rep. Vito Fossella quietly returned to Staten Island today to a bleak political and personal landscape.

    A Fossella fund-raiser planned for today at the Staten Island home of John Alexander, chairman and CEO of Northfield Bank, was canceled. Fossella, meanwhile, was secluded with family members pondering his next step.

    The 43-year-old Republican congressman is not expected to make any announcements or statements over the weekend — putting an end, at least temporarily, to speculation that Fossella’s resignation was imminent.

    But GOP leaders have reportedly given him until Monday to make a decision.

  3. What exactly can they do?

    Republican Leadership: You have until Monday to make a decision

    Monday comes around…

    Republican Leadership: Vito, what is your decision?

    Vito Fossella: I haven’t made up my mind yet.

    Republican Leadership: Vito, you have until Friday to make a decision

    I don’t get it.

  4. 55% to 44%.

    I know 9/11 factored in here, but it’s still a tougher district than it looks.

  5. Why wouldn’t Paterson call a special election? He is a savvy pol and will do what he thinks will help us more to gain that seat. That is probably a special election with turnout driven by a motivated base. Democrats will probably have a more motivated base (and more money to spend on the race).

    Also that let’s party leaders pick a Satan Island canidate who is stronger and could win.

    If I am thinking right we could eliminate all but one New York Republican congressman and the other one of rumored to be running for governor in 2010 and after redistricting we could probably win that seat too seeing as we will likely have total control of NY Government. Plus the entire federal delegation and hopefully in 2009 a Democratic mayor of NYC.

    Lookin good!

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