Rasmussen (5/27, likely voters):
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 47
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 46
(MoE: ±4%)
According to the poll, Musgrove has a 49-42 favorable/unfavorable rating, while the lesser-known Wicker is sitting on a 49-32 favorable rating.
So let’s tally ’em up. Last week, we saw a DSCC internal poll that had Musgrove up by 8 points, and a Research 2000 poll that had Wicker up by 4.
However, in the “too good to be true?” file, Rasmussen’s same round of polling shows Barack Obama in a surprisingly close race with McCain, only down 44-50.
In the state’s other Senate race, between longtime incumbent Thad Cochran and former state Rep. Erik Fleming, Cochran leads by 58% to 35%.
Soon this is going to be in the same boat as AK-SEN
Dem is a strong candidate, Republican is a weak incumbent, cheap state, Dem is getting outfundraised by Republicans, Dem is leading by small margins in good polling.
I’d really like to know the White-Black % of voters breakdown. That’s the key here. Hopefully they didn’t oversample one race over the other. Breakdown should be something along the lines of 63/37 white/black.
What order will the Senate races appear on the ballot? Obama and Musgrove are doing pretty well here. I wonder if they could provide Fleming with some coattails.
because this race, like childers’, will have no party id and is a special election. i don’t know what that does to coat tails.
It’s amazing to think of it, but we have a real shot at taking this seat too.
Musgrove is well known and relatively well-liked. Wicker can, should, and (if I have anything to say about it) will be tied directly to the failures of the last 8 years. His lockstep allegiance to Bush and the GOP will hurt him. Mark my words.
Despite many attempts to disassociate the Childers win from the national distaste for all things Republican, I don’t think that it can be discounted the way some are trying to do.
Even here, people are hungry for real change in Washington. And with Obama at the top of the ticket, there’s a really good chance for an historic African-American turnout in November, which will only increase Musgrove’s share of the vote.