Help Me Build My House Race Portfolio

Like many Americans, I am in the process of building a stock portfolio to help invest in me, my family and my son’s future. But I also want to invest in my country. I am building a portfolio of five House districts to cotribute $50 each month (or $25 if I change my find). The district are based on the following criteria:

1. It is currently occupied by a Republican.

2. One district per region.

3. Rated tossup by the Cook Political Report, a typically conservative analystical piece.

4. Must be a true tossup. VA-11 is not one of them.

5. Must be in a relatively inexpensive district. I will leave NY-13 to the big boys.

6. Must have a nominee or very likely nominee.

Thus far I have chosen the following districts:

1. West/Southwest: Betsy Markey in the CO-04.

2. Northwest: Darcy Burner in the WA-08.

3. Northeast: Eric Massa in the NY-29.

I need help for the final two. In the Midwest, I am split between Dan Seals in the IL-10, Mark Schaur in the MI-07 and John Boccieri in the OH-16. I am skipping OH-15 because it is a bit pricey. Also, I am trying to decide how likely Paul Carmouche will be the nominee in the LA-04. Your help or other suggestions would be much appreciated. Thanks.

32 thoughts on “Help Me Build My House Race Portfolio”

  1. Incumbent Robin Hayes (NC-8) is being challenged again by Larry Kissell, a high school social studies teacher.  Kissell came within 329 votes of beating ultra-wealthy Hayes in 2006 with vitually no help from the DCCC.  I think this was the closest race of the cycle.  This district has a significant minority population and is a great pickup opportunity again in 2008.

  2. IL-10 is in Chicago’s media market – which is extremely expensive….

    OH-16 shouldn’t be too bad – mostly Cleveland/Akron/Canton.

    MI-07 is Lansing, Toledo, and Grand Rapids/Battle Creek.

    Carmouche is very likely to be the nominee in LA-04; being DA of Caddo Parish (Shreveport), the core of the district, since 1979 lends him a great deal of credibility.

  3. There is a chance of a primary here, with a black candidate running.  So far, I have no idea if he’s got a shot or not, as he has to file a fundraising report.

    Carmouche, on the other hand, raised $112,000 in three weeks prior to the close of the last quarter.  

    Also complicating matters is that State Senator Lydia Jackson is making noise about running as an Independent.  Senator Jackson is black, in a district that is roughly 30% black.  

    With Senator Jackson in the race, it would be relatively easy for the Republican running to win, as all they would need is a plurality of the vote.  

    What else you looking at for the South?

  5. It seems that ID-01 might be too Republican for you.  If not, go for ID-01 instead.

  7. Will be primarily going to candidates who I believe can hold their districts for a long time.  Anotherwords candidates in places like NJ-03, NJ-07, IL-10, CT-04, LA-04, the NY districts, OH-01, OH-15, etc. are the type of districts where I’ll be making donations.  While I want our candidates to win in places like WY-AL, ID-01, CA-04, CO-04, OH-02, etc. I don’t regard those races as important since I cannot see us holding them for more than 1 or 2 elections.

  8.    I disagree with you on that pick.  I think Eric Massa is likely to defeat Randy Kuhl.  Massa has twice as much money as Kuhl, and Massa nearly defeated him last cycle.  Kuhl considered retiring and is only running a half-hearted campaign.  I think that the Shulman vs. Garrett contest is an actual toss-up, even if Cook doesn’t agree.

  9. Avoid races that are on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list.  The Cash on Hand advantage Democrats have over Republicans isn’t even fair.  Those races on R2B are races we know they are playing to win in.  

    Southern Races: AL-02, LA-04

    Western Races: NM-02, CA-50

    Eastern Races: VA-02

    Midwestern Races: OH-02, MO-09

  10. I disagree with your strategy of only investing in top, top tier races but out of the three in the midwest I would say Schauer. Seals is great but he is getting a lot of financial help already and Chicago is not cheap by any standard. Also Boccieri is already pretty much a lock and is much more conservative then Schauer. I would also put in a word for Ashwin Madia here in MN-03. He will need more help then those three beacuse he had to spend money on a primary. I’m not sure what cook says but it should be a true tossup. He’s also a great candidate.

    For the south I would recomend Glen Nye in VA-02. He is one ranking down from tossup but if he raises enough he will go into tossup. We only lost by 2 points last time with a worse candidate and Nye’s profile fits the district much better. But out of the two listed as tossups now though NC-08 for sure.  

  11. is a race with no public polling in a solid red district.

    Why look twice at it anyway?

    Daniel Johnson is a great candidate Navy vet, hero (lost his legs saving another sailor), prosecutor.

    -McHenry is only outraising Johnson by about 2:1

    In neighboring NC11 with similar demographics, Heath Shuler knocked off incumbent Charles Taylor in 2006 and has made the distict solid blue in just one term.

    McHenry is about as useless and embarrassing congresscritter you can find and that’s saying something.

    -Rural district is divided between the Asheville/Greenville/Spartanburg media market and the Charlotte market.

  12. Last night as I was going to bed, this popped into my head, yes, I think about SSP just before bed, lol I think you should send your money to Don Young. lol If he wins his primary, he’ll most likely lose the general election, but if he loses his primary, we’ll most likely lose the general election. Or at the very least should he lose his primary, we’ll have a much harder time taking that seat. lol  

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