According to the latest Rasmussen poll yesterday. link to polling info These poll numbers seem a bit iffy to me considering that Noriega was only 4 points down last month. In any event, Noriega still has another few days on Active Duty this week
As we all know, bad polling numbers can really suffocated national momentum. I do question these polling numbers and I will explain why.
Although last months numbers may have been a bit too optimistic.
The poll gives this information
Cornyn is supported by 86 percent of Republicans and has a two-to-one edge among unaffiliated voters. Last month, his lead among the unaffiliateds was just four percentage points. Noreiga attracts 72 percent of Democrats, down from 81 percent a month ago.
The Democrat leads among voters under 30, reflecting a nationwide trend. He is competitive among those who earn less than $40,000 a year. However, Cornyn has the advantage among adults over 30 and those with annual incomes topping $40,000.
Incumbents who poll below 50 percent are generally considered vulnerable. Cornyn has moved slightly above that threshold, but many of his colleagues remain in challenging races
Now of course this comes from Rasmussen so I see a little bias right there. I’m not much of a conspiracy theorist except when it comes to Karl Rove, but maybe they even had bad numbers last month on purpose so they could balance them out with improved numbers this month and show the momentum was going back to Cornyn. After Cornyn voted against the New GI Bill and Rick has started receiving national attention I just do not buy these numbers. Maybe last months were out of whack, but I certainly see this as being less than 17 points. I think they can only go up.
Maybe he got some play from his crazy logic last week that the Global Climate Change bill would cost Texas 300k jobs. Mind you that gas prices have skyrocketed to over $4.00 while Cornyn and his Republican Cronies have been in Congress. That rise of gas prices certainly hasn’t cost the citizens of Texas any jobs right?
Cornyn did get some mileage out of saying that the global change bill would cost gas prices to rise immediately. scroll down to bottom of article for quote
So as gas prices rise and Democrats are increasingly spending more money for the necessities with the status quo politics of the Republican adminstration, John Cornyn’s poll numbers mysteriously rise. I’m going to do what I can to make this and other races competitive.
go to this act blue page
or click on the thermometer to make a difference now
Loading ...
. . . I didn’t think this seat was actually in play. I admired Noriega’s candidacy more from the standpoint of being good for the growth of the Democratic Party than from thinking he could actually win or make a contest of this. After running Barbara Ann Radnofsky, who had those unbelievably ludicrous sock-puppet commercials in ’06, the fact that we have a solid, impressive candidate in Texas now sends the message that we’re going to fight everywhere, and that someday, Texas will be in play. For now, it’s just a matter of party building and expanding the brand. I figured that the poll that showed a close race in Texas was actually the fluke, and that we’ll see more double-digit polls like this one as the campaign continues.
Rasmussen is NOT trafficking its numbers to have a momentum swing in the next poll… That is possibly the most absurd idea i’ve ever heard. Not to mention that we’ve gotten a lot of great polling data from Rasmussen, and that there was no evidence of a bias in 2004 or in 2006. Heck, they’ve pretty much put North Carolina on the map this year all by themselves by showing Hagan leading Dole.
I was skeptical of the four-point poll and feel the same way about this 17-point one. I believe that the race right now is probably right around ten. What might determine whether this really turns into a single digit race is how fundraising has been going during Q2. We have lots of money here if Texas, it’s just a shame that it always has a tendency to leave the state. I think bringing a Clinton down to the RGV or El Paso would help matters and Obama will have nice coattails in Dallas and Harris counties, so I don’t think all hope is lost. It’s just that things need to start picking up and picking up quick. The DSCC is not going to invest in this race at all until Noriega can show an ability to raise some cash.
He’s incumbent, but he’s unpopular, and he’s also associated with an unpopular party. But said party still remains the dominant party in Texas. His Senate colleague is a popular, though Republican. His Democratic challenger hasn’t run for the seat before, but is a member of the Texas State House, and an active member of the armed forces.
I’d say Cornyn’s probably up by around 7-12 points right now.
I think the earlier Rasmussen poll was more likely an outlier. Cornyn is not very popular, but Republicans are still the majority and Norriega is still mostly unknown, especially outside of Houston. I’d guess the “true” number right now is Cornyn +10-15. But, I do not rule out a Norriega victory since Texas is definitely moving blue and demographic increases in Hispanics will be a huge plus for Norriega. But, he has to raise money to introduce himself to the state. If he can do that, he has a chance.