Pinch me, I think I’m dreaming (likely voters, Oct. 16-18 in parens):
John Yarmuth (D): 52 (48)
Anne Northup (R): 44 (47)
MoE: ±4%
Amazing. Northup has held back strong Democratic challengers for a decade in this Louisville district that leans Democratic (she most recently scored 60% of the vote in 2004), and many prognosticators were quick to write off Yarmuth’s chances, figuring that his resume of being an alt-weekly publisher would be an easy target for Northup to pummel. But by all indications, Yarmuth has run a scrappy, smart campaign and has been tightening the contest over the last two months. If he can do what other Democrats have failed to do in cycles past, November 7 is going to be a big night.
I used to live in this district and my parents still do. Northup is a terrible Rethug rubber stamp and this is currently the most democratic seat held by a Rethug.
But I don’t buy this lead. The Bluegrass poll last week had Northup up by 6. My guess is that the race is actually somewhere in between. I expect this one to be real close on Tuesday.
Speaking of Tuesday, this will be one of the three close races that will be first to report (polls close everywhere in the district at 6 eastern — same with KY-04 and IN-09). I hope we will see some early momentum from the whole Ohio River Valley.
KY-3 is joining the blue team in 2006. There are a number of reasons Northup loses in 2006.
*corruption conviction of GOP Gov. Ernie Fletcher and his pardoning of all those involved has created a need for change groundswell in Kentucky. Look at all the typically sleepy congressional districts in KY that are in play this year. This effect is especially pronounced in the Cincinnati media market (KY-4) because they not only hear about Fletcher’s corruption, but they hear all about GOP Gov Robert Taft’s corrution troubles as well. It magnifies the message about the need for change and all three Districts in this market have very endangered GOP incumbents as a result: Steve Chabot, Mean Jean Schmidt, and Geoff Davis.
*John Yarmuth is very wealthy and Anne Northup will not have her usual advantage of overwhelming the underfinanced opposition with media ads in the final 10 days.
*Anne Northup recently began back peddling on Iraq which tells me this district is voting for national not local issues, advantage Yarmuth.
*KY-3 and KY-4 (Davis v. Lucas) are both likely to shift red to blue. KY-2 might also though Democrat Mike Weaver is the least appealing Dem nominee in the nation in 2006.
That time when you wearily put a stained garment BACK through the washer one more time with extra bleach and lo! alleluia! This time. it finally came clean after many tries.
I used to live in that district, long ago, and Northup’s stubborn ability to hang onto it has been a thorn in our sides for too long.
KY-03 is similar to WA-05, or the contested CT seats, in a way. It’s one of the districts we hope to flip in 2006 that we should be able to hold in the future without making superhuman expenditures to do so.
I think winning this would be like finding that expensive thing that you had just recently given up on. Meanwhile you’ve had to live with the alternative because you just couldn’t find something better.
I’m at ground zero for this race and since voters are pre-occupied with football(GO CARDS!) and horses (and basketball just started, too), and with Jerry on the ballot, I think Yarmuth will win by the same 7,000 votes Jack Conway lost 4 years ago (no thanks to a commercial cameo by yours truly).
I expect to be singing “Ding Dong the Witch is Dead” when I come to work on Wednesday.