Oregon, Primary Review and General Preview

The following is a review of Oregon’s primary and a preview of Oregon’s fall elections now that the primary results (with the exception of Ballot Measure 53) are certified.  Crossposted from Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/16/121742/983/269/536725).

The Oregon Primary is nearly all in the books, so I thought it was appropriate to offer a final review of it and preview the fall campaigns.  I posted a more detailed preview a few weeks ago here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/5/12544/25866/676/530200.

The major source for my numbers is the SOS’s election results page: https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/goToElectionResults.do?actionId=viewLoad&mode=view.

The Oregon Primary, by the numbers:

Total Number of Votes Cast: 1,170,553, or 58.04%

Turnout in the 2006 Primary: 38.58%.

Democratic Turnout: 75.66% (a new record for an Oregon primary, smashing the previous record of 71.3% set during the 1968 Presidential Primary).

Number of Votes for Barack Obama: 375,000.

Number of Votes for Hillary Clinton: 260,000

Number of Votes for John McSame: 286,000.

Biggest margin of victory in any county for Hillary: 800 votes (Coos County).

Biggest margin of victory in any county for Obama: 53,000 votes (Multnomah County).

Jeff Merkley’s Margin of Victory over Steve Novick: 16,000.

Number of undervotes in the US Senate Primary: 90,000, or well above Merkley’s margin of victory.  By my estimate, Novick would have netted 3-5,000 or so more votes in Multnomah County alone had everyone cast ballots, assuming his margin of 52-40% had held.

Approximate cost per vote for Mike Erickson in the CD 5 Republican Primary (through the end of April only so the number is going to be higher than this): $23.

Approximate cost per vote for Kurt Schrader in the CD 5 Democratic Primary (through the end of April only): $1.70.

Closest Race: Ballot Measure 53, the “original certification” puts the margin at 450 votes out of 978,000 cast, or .06%.  It is currently being recounted and results will be known by 6/24.

Undervotes in this race: 192,000, or more than 425 times the margin.

Enough fun with numbers, now for a quickie Oregon General Election Preview:

Race-Rating Key:

Tossup-Less than 3% margin.

Lean-3 to 10% margin.

Likely-11 to 20% margin.

Safe-Over 20% margin.

When discussing a race I list the incumbent, or failing that the incumbent party, first.  

Candidates are indicated by the following symbols:

Inc-Incumbent.

Int-Interim Incumbent, someone who was appointed to fill out a term.  Oregon law allows the political party that controls a seat to basically appoint a replacement in case of resignation and so it is not uncommon for state legislators to resign so their successor can run as an incumbent.  Appointments are valid until the start of the next legislative session in a year following a general election.  Therefore, those appointees who have two years left on their term following an election must face a special election for those two years.   For example, Brad Avakian (D) resigned his State Senate seat and was replaced by Suzanne Bonamici (also D).  Since Avakian was not up for re-election until 2010, Bonamici will face a special election for the last two years of Avakian’s term this fall.

Statewide Races:

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D).

Summary: The latest polling shows Obama with a solid lead in the 10% range.  Expect him to win by this much or more.  Barr might hurt McCain here because many of the urban Rs are libertarians who aren’t particularly fond of him.

Outlook: Leans to Likely Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D).

Summary: The latest poll shows Smith with a 9% lead but under 50%.  Merkley will definitely benefit from Obama’s strength here.  For now, his biggest weakness is most certainly his cash disadvantage but its nothing he can’t overcome.

Outlook: Leans Smith.

Labor Commissioner (Nonpartisan) (2-year interim):

Brad Avakian (int) is facing only token opposition, namely this nut, who likes to put curses on his opponents: http://www.getenergized.com/vote.html.  

Outlook: Safe Avakian.

Attorney General:

John Kroger (D) is unopposed and even won the OR R’s nomination by write-in.

State Treasurer:

Candidates: Ben Westlund (D) vs. Allen Alley (R).

Summary: Against someone else Alley might have a chance, but Westlund has friends on both sides of the aisle.  This one is going to be a rout.

Outlook: Likely to Safe Westlund.

Secretary of State

Candidates: Kate Brown (D) vs. Rick Dancer (R).

Summary: Brown is going to kick Dancer’s ass, period.  Dancer has no real base to speak of and has received only a lukewarm reception from Oregon Rs.  This is an important race this year, obviously, since the next SOS will help with redistricting.

Outlook: Likely to Safe Brown.

Congressional Races:

District 1 (Wu-D)-Likely to Safe Wu.

District 2 (Walden-R)-Likely to Safe Walden.

District 3 (Blumenauer-D)-Safe Blumenauer.

District 4 (DeFazio-D) is unopposed.

District 5

Candidates: State Sen. Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman (and hypocrite) Mike Erickson (R).

Summary: Schrader is a well known and respected legislator in this district and his wife is the current chair of the Clackamas County Commission.  Erickson, on the other hand, lost the endorsements of both Oregon Right to Life and the Oregon Farm Bureau, two groups without which no Republican can really hope to win.  I think he has enough cash to keep this race within 10% but not to win.

Outlook: Leans Schrader.

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate:

In brief:

Current Composition: 18 D, 11 R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18 D, 12 R (1 D to R (Westlund), 1 I to D (Gordly).

Races by Rating:

Safe: 7D, 5R.

Lean/Likely Hold: 2R, 1D.

Lean Takeover: 1D (Ben Westlund’s Seat in Central Oregon looks likely to flip to the Rs.  Put it this way, if they can’t win that seat, the Oregon Rs are really really in horrible shape.

Oregon House:

In brief:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 32 D, 23 R, 5 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.

Races by Rating:

Safe/Likely: 25D, 10R.

Lean Hold: 6D, 13R.

Tossup Districts: 5 (all Rs, specifically: Berger (R-inc, Independence/Monmouth), Wingard (R-open, Wilsonville), Bruun (R-inc, West Linn, Kennemmer (R-open, Canby) and Lindland (R-open, Corbett).

Lean Takeover: 1R (Minnis’s old seat, now as an open seat, should flip to the Ds).

Let me know what you think.