It’s been a few months since we’ve done one of these, so let’s see what we come up with this time around. You know the drill: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of likelihood of flipping.
Have at it!
85 thoughts on “June Senate Cattle Call”
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1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
5. Alaska
6. North Carolina
7. Mississippi
8. Maine
9. Oregon
10. Minnesota
11. Kentucky
12. Louisiana
13. Kansas
14. Oklahoma
15. Nebraska
16. Texas
Some of these like 6-11 are dependent on receiving financial support.
Reminder, Donna Edwards gets elected tonight.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Oregon
7. Mississippi-B
8. North Carolina
9. Minnesota
10. Kentucky
11. Louisiana
12. Maine
13. Kansas
14. Texas
15. Oklahoma
16. New Jersey
17. Nebraska
18. Idaho
19. Georgia
20. ?
Likely Democrat pick up
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
Leans Democrat pick up
3) Colorado
4) New Hampshire
Toss up
5) Alaska
6) Mississippi-B
Leans Republican
7) Minnesota
8) Oregon
9) North Carolina
11) Maine
12) Kansas
13) Oklahoma
Leans Democrat retention
10) Louisiana
Virginia
New Mexico
New Hampshire
Colorado
Alaska
Minnesota
Mississippi
Louisiana
North Carolina
Oregon
Maine
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Idaho
Nebraska
Kansas
Georgia
North Carolina over Oregon was the only really fun call, and I went with it because Dole is a first termer who hasn’t established herself in the state (contra Smith), North Carolina is a big state (contra Oregon — I have a theory that small states are more apt to tolerate off-party Senators than big states), and Obama’s turnout boost in NC is straight-ticket-voting AAs, whereas in Oregon his turnout boost is in indie/greens who are going to split more of their tickets for Smith than AAs would.
If Obama wins by a big enough margin, then we wash em both away. Much depends on the presidential campaign.
if the edwards race is the only one today? are there any other primary’s today?
Likely D
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
Lean D
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
Tossup
5. Alaska
6. Oregon
7. Minnesota
8. Mississippi-B
Lean R
9. Louisiana (Dem Seat)
10. North Carolina
11. Maine
12. Kentucky
Likely R
13. Kansas
14. Texas
15. Oklahoma
16. Nebraska
17. Idaho
Likely Range of Net Gain: 5-9 Seats
From Most Likely to get elected (top) to Least Likely (bottom):
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
5. Mississippi
6. Alaska
7. Minnesota
8. Oregon
9. North Carolina
10. Kentucky
11. Oklahoma
12. Georgia (Saxby’s firewall)
The last one is a bit of a joke, but since it came from the mouth of NRSC Chair John Ensign that Georgia’s the firewall, I thought I’d obliged him.
Hey, it’s the middle of the year, time to dream big.
I just want to say I really enjoy the blog, it’s an excellent resource on federal elections no matter what your persuasion.
DEM FAVORED
New Jersey (D)
Virginia (R)
LEANS DEM
Louisiana (D)
New Mexico (R)
New Hampshire (R)
TOSSUP
Colorado (R)
Alaska (R)
Minnesota (R)
LEANS REP
Oregon (R)
Mississippi-S (R)
North Carolina (R)
REP FAVORED
Maine (R)
Kentucky (R)
Texas (R)
RACES TO WATCH
Idaho (R)
Kansas (R)
Massachusetts (lol)
The Line:
1. Virginia/R
2. New Mexico/R
3. New Hampshire/R
4. Colorado/R
5. Alaska/R
6. Minnesota/R
7. Louisiana/D
8. Oregon/R
9. North Carolina/R
10. Mississippi-S/R
Poor Mary, she’s going to be on these lists all year. And she’ll probably pull it out too.
end of first
Safe Democratic
24) Louisiana
Likely Democratic pick-up
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) Colorado
4) New Hampshire
5) Mississippi-B
6) Alaska
Leans Democrat pick-up
7) Oregon
Toss-up
8) Minnesota
9) North Carolina
10) Kentucky
Leans Repub
11) Texas
12) Maine
13) Idaho
14) Oklahoma
15) Kansas
16) Nebraska
Likely Repub
Georgia
Tennessee
South Carolina
Mississippi-A
Wyoming
Alabama
Wyoming
I’m trying to be conservative here. Actually, I expect that most of my “Leans Repub” races will be competitive by November, more correctly Toss-ups. One or two of the “Likely Repub” races could also become competitive, or “Leans Repub” in November. Then in the wave election, the Democrats will sweep almost all — but not all — of the competitive contests, winning 12 to 14 seats. So I’m not entirely ruling out a Democratic win (by one of the candidates whose names I can’t even recall at this point) in Georgia, Tennessee, or South Carolina, depending on the depth of the Obama tsunami when it hits the Southern shores. Seriously. This will be a transformative election, a map-changing election, and an utter and complete repudiation of the Repub party.
SOLID TAKEOVER
1. Virginia (stays at #1 since Warner stated he’s all in)
LIKELY TAKEOVER
2. New Mexico (thankfully Udall ran!)
LEAN TAKEOVER
3. Colorado (open race is easier to win than incumbent)
4. New Hampshire (incubments are harder to beat)
TOSS-UPS
5. Alaska (corruption is tough to overcome)
6. Mississippi-B (Musgrove w/statewide ID, but red state)
LEAN RETENTION
7. Oregon (blue state, Obama coattails, Merkley win?)
8. North Carolina (Hagan w/Obama to make a run at it)
9. Louisiana (Landrieu has $$$ and seniority + Obama)
10. Minnesota (Franken is going, going, not yet gone…)
LIKELY RETENTION
11. Maine (Collins still showing strong double digits)
12. Kentucky (McConnell polls are getting our hopes us)
13. New Jersey (Just to be fair to add another DEM seat)
14. Nebraska (If DEMs win this seat, total blowout wave)
15. Idaho (only because LaRocco is a great candidate)
SOLID RETENTION
10 Democrats
10 Republicans
DEMs take the Solid, Likely, & Lean takeover seats, that’s a DEM+4 there. I’ll take 1 of 2 tossup races, and 1 of 4 Lean races, making it DEM+6:
111th Congress – US Senate
55 Democrats (DEM+6)
2 Independents (IND+0)
43 Republicans (GOP-6)
57-43 Democratic Working Majority (if Lieberman = DEM)
On a side note…
111th Congress – US House of Representatives
248 Democrats (DEM+12)
187 Republicans (GOP-12)
Of course then I remember that they gave us George Bush and I get over it :D:
Anyways, here's where I think things stand
So, why not.
Likely Democrat:
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
Leans Democrat:
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Louisiana
Toss Up:
6. Alaska
7. Mississippi-B
Leans Republican:
8. Oregon
9. Minnesota
10. Kentucky
11. North Carolina
Likely Republican:
12. Texas
13. Nebraska
14. Kansas, Idaho, Okalhoma
Hell or High Water:
Montana
Wyoming A/B
South Dakota
Iowa
Illinois
Arkansas
Michigan
Tennessee
W. Virginia
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina
Delaware
New Jersey
Massechusetts
Rhode Island
I know, I’m more conservative than most people on this site. I base mine on polls right now. I’ve yet to see a poll that has Frankin ahead, or Merkley ahead. And I want to wait until after the primary for Alaska, just to be sure. Polls for both Alaska and Mississippi-B have had both up and down, to me, that’s toss up. I see us gaining at least 5 seats, probably more as time progresses. I just don’t see how Alaska or Mississippi are ‘leans’ when Republicans have all the advantages, not to mention, very red states. Not impossible, but still, very much toss ups.
END OF FIRST HALF; THIS GAME IS OVER FOLKS!!!!
Here’s mine:
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) New Hampshire
4) Colorado
5) Alaska
6) Mississippi
7) North Carolina
8) Minnesota
9) Oregon
10) Louisiana
11) Maine
12) Kentucky
13) Idaho
14) Texas
15) Kansas
16) Nebraska
17) Oklahoma
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Mississippi
7. Minnesota
8. Oregon
9. Louisiana
10. Maine
11. Texas
The most likely scenario: Big wins in Virginia and New Mexico, smaller but significant wins in Colorado and New Hampshire, nail-biters in the toss-up category. I think we’ll pick up VA, NM, CO, NH, AK and two more in the toss-up category for a 55 D – 43 R – 2 I (Sanders and Lieberman) composition in the 111th Congress.
Likely Dem/Solid Dem
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
Lean Dem
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
Toss-Up
5. Alaska
6. North Carolina
7. Mississippi-B (Roger Wicker)
8. Oregon
9. Minnesota
Lean Incumbent Retention
10. Louisiana
11. Kentucky
Likely Incumbent (or Incumbent Party) Retention
12. New Jersey
13. Maine
14. Kansas
15. Idaho (OPEN)
16. Nebraska (OPEN)
17. Oklahoma (OPEN)
Uncompetitive:
Mississippi-A (Thad Cochran)
Georgia
Wyoming-A (Mike Enzi)
Wyoming-B (John Barrasso)
Montana
Iowa
Rhode Island
Delaware
Massachusetts
Arkansas
South Dakota
Illinois
Michigan
West Virginia
Put it where Idaho is, and then put Idaho beneath Nebraska.
on the current state of the senate races from their standpoint; first of all; i think they feel like BOTH landrieu and lautenberg are completely SAFE seats this cycle and the repubs don’t have the resources to TRULY challenge them with a high probability of success;ALL other incumbent senators are SAFE and they don’t feel the republicans will try to put any REAL fight against them; with that out of the way; they have basically a two-tier approach in mind; i’m going to post the second tier first(i apologize if that is confusing); they have plans to contest ALL of these second tier seats in varying degrees(this will obviously be adjusted as their(dscc internals which are NEVER released publicly)polls indicate potential openings); the second tier are these(in no particular order of importance):GA, KN, NE, OK, TX; clearly, they think one or more of these 5 seats MAY come into play, so they don’t want to have dropped the ball in any of them; now for the first tier; their first tier consists of 11 seats in which they feel ALL are potential wins and they will fund ALL 11 accordingly WITH the caveat that they believe VA and NM(and to a lesser degree NH and CO)are already in the bag and won’t require much assistance; i think you can SAFELY say they feel confident in winning ALL 4 of these seats(don’t misread that as saying they won’t spend money on those 4 becuase they will BUT they know the repubs resources are limited and thus our spending will be adjusted as we go;for instance, the dscc believes that john ensign(chuck schumer’s repub counterpart)has ALREADY abandoned pearce in NM as a lost cause(my take on this is they felt like wilson could have put up something of a fight for that seat had she won the primary); that leaves us with the 7 REAL battleground senate seat targets; those 7 are(here again in NO particular order;but, i will list them in the order of the e-mail BUT that does NOT mean the dscc targets them as such); AK; KY; ME; MN; MS-B; NC; OR; one other observation i would like to make is this; the DSCC feels like mcconnell is CLEARLY on the ropes in kentucky and that lunsford can knock him out(i have stated before on this site that of all the GREAT candidates that schumer has recruited this cycle that lunsford is by far my LEAST favorite;however, as my friend CHADinFL says, a turd sandwich would be better than mcconnell and I AGREE with him); one last observation about idaho(where we have a terrific senate candidate);even though idaho was not mentioned in the e-mail as a target i believe that it MIGHT become one; over the weekend, at the idaho republican convention there was a REVOLT against the republican governor(butch otter) and his chosen candidate for state party chairman(who was BADLY beaten in a race that was not close);needless to say, idaho republicans are in a sorry state of mind that can be exploited, add to that the fact that there is a serious independent challenge to jim risch from the right and you have the makings of a perfect storm which MAY put larocco in the U.S. SENATE(from idaho!!!!)(i believe idaho was not mentioned in the dscc e-mail because these events in idaho are just taking place); oh well; that’s my 2 cents(sorry for the long post); i look forward to any responses;OH, AND THE CELTICS WON……………..
I don’t think Idaho will be a pick up, but I am waiting for a poll to see if it might be.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
5. Alaska
6. Oregon
7. Louisiana
8. Mississippi
9. Minnesota
10. North Carolina
11. Maine
12. Kentucky
13. Kansas
14. Oklahoma
Overall Democratic gain of 5-8.
…………
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Louisana
7. Oregon
8. Minnesota
9. Mississippi
10. Maine
11. Kentucky
12. New Jersey
13. North Carolina
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
5. Alaska
6. Mississippi-B
7. Minnesota
8. North Carolina
9. Jeff Merkley
10. Louisiana
11. Maine
12. Kentucky
13. Kansas
14. Oklahoma
15. Nebraska
16. Idaho
Idaho is almost ready to drop off the list. I need to see the next wave of fundraising first. Colorado is ahead of New Hampshire because Obama coattails will be stronger in Colorado, Udall is fundraising better than Shaheen, and Shaffer is significantly weaker a candidate than Sununu.
The DSCC really needs to just step-in and win that primary for him. It probably wont result in a Senate seat but who the hell really knows what may happen this year, look at Alaska, Kentucky, North Carolina, Mississippi, Oregon, Maine is getting there. If Georgia somehow gets competitive on its own, that is just ANOTHER seat the NRSC will have to defend that will not allow them to spend money elsewhere.
Honestly, just cut a tv ad for him and that’s all.
but; i think the next update WILL have idaho coming on board; where i posted upthread, i gave a detailed explanation as to why i think that will come into play(at least draw attention that grows into something real); like ALL things political, the DSCC moves deliberately(my nice way of saying that they move SLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWLY)BUT i trust chuck schumer(and his crew to do the right thing); so, i say let’s see how it plays out; with the republican turmoil taking place in idaho at this time, i think we may turn out to be pleasantly surprised
1) VA
2) NM
3) CO
4) NH
5) AK
6) OR
7) MN
8) ME
9) MS (Wicker)
10) NE
11) NC
12) TX
13) KS
14) OK
15) ID
16) KY
17) GA (if Martin is our nominee)
I’m not even going to get into distinctions between Likely and Lean – I’m not sure I can tell the difference these days. But I am going to write out the names, to try to will their senatorships into existence. So here goes:
Tier I:
1) Virgina… Senator Mark Warner!
2) New Mexico… Senator Tom Udall!
Tier II:
3) New Hampshire… Senator Jeanne Shaheen!
4) Colorado… Senator Mark Udall!
5) Alaska… Senator Mark Begich!
6) Oregon… Senator Jeff Merkley!
7) Mississippi… Senator Ronnie Musgrove!
8) Kentucky… Senator Bruce Lunsford (I can’t quite bring myself to put the exclamation point here, but if he can win, rock on)
Tier III:
9) Minnesota… Senator Al Franken!
10) North Carolina… Senator Kay Hagan!
11) Texas… Senator Rick Noriega!
12) Maine… Senator Tom Allen!
13) Louisiana (figured I’d throw this in here somewhere; this seems about right)
14) Kansas… Senator Jim Slattery!
Tier IV:
15) Idaho… Senator Larry LaRocco!
16) Nebraska… Senator Scott Kleeb!
17) Ohio… Senator Tim Ryan! Because with poll numbers as good as his, he might has well get into the fourth tier already.
I ranked 8 RED states–including Kansas–higher than Maine (plus others that are swing states). What do solid blue Mainers see in Susan Collins? Whatever it is, it isn’t really there. Collins is on track to join Snowe in surviving these two consecutive Democratic wave elections. This easily could be the one seat the prevents a 60- or 61-seat majority (accounting for Lieberman).
1. VA
2. NM
3. CO
4. NH
5. AK
6. MN
7. OR
8. NC
9. MS-B
10. KY
11. LA
12. KS
13. ME – This is ridiculous.
14. TX
15. NJ
16. NE
17. ID
18. GA
Solid Take Over
1. Virginia Senator Mark Warner
2. New Mexico Senator Tom Udall
Likely Take Over
3. Colorado Senator Mark Udall
4. New Hampshire Senate Jeanne Sheehan
Lean Take Over
5. Minnesota Senator Al Franken
6. Alaska Senator Mark Begich
7. Oregon Senator Gordon Smith
8. North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan
9. Mississippi-B
10. Maine
Toss-Up
11. Kentucky
Lean Republican
12. Texas
13. Kansas
14. Nebraska
15. Georgia (with Martin, Obama, and DSCC)
16. Oklahoma
17. Idaho
We’ll sweep all the way through toss-up and take 1-3 lean Republicans maybe. So I’m gonna project like 10-14 seats.
In the House, I bet we’ll gain like 40-50 seats. I’m gonna love my all blue Minnesota delegation, the only Republican left in the state will be Pawlenty, and he’ll have just failed at becoming VP by an embarrassing margin. Maybe he’ll flub some debates too and look like an idiot, thank you governorship in 2010 and gay marriage for me 🙂 Maybe we can be the first to do it through legislation so we cant have the religious right bitch.
Obama will easily win with a bit over 350 electoral votes. Oh and the countless and countless state legislative seats, that is really where legislation that affects our every day lives happens. Not that federal doesnt but state politics affects us way more.
It’s kind of sad getting my huge electoral victories so early in life, it can only go downhill from here, lol.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
5. Mississippi
6. Alaska
7. Oregon
8. Minnesota
9. North Carolina
10. Kentucky
11. Maine
12. Kansas
13. Texas
14. Oklahoma
15. Idaho
16. Nebraska
17. Georgia
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) New Hampshire
4) Colorado
5) Alaska
6) Oregon
7) Mississippi
8) Minnesota
9) North Carolina
10) Louisiana
11) Maine
12) Kentucky
13) Kansas
14) Nebraska
15) Texas
16) Oklahoma
17) Idaho
1)Virginia
2)New Mexico
3)New Hampshire
4)Colorado
5)Alaska
6)North Carolina
7)Mississippi-B
8)Oregon
9)Minnesota
10)Kentucky
11)Louisiana
12)Maine
13)Kansas
14)Oklahoma
15)Nebraska
16)Texas
17)Idaho
18)Georgia
19)New Jersey
20)South Carolina
8-10 seat pickup
Just so I can later brag (or more likely hang my head in shame), I’ll need to put myself on record:
1. VA
2. NM
3. NH
4. CO
5. LA
6. AK
7. MN
8. MS-B
9. OR
10. ME
11. NC
12. NJ
13. KS
14. NE
15. TX
16. ID
17. SD
18. GA
19. OK
20. AL
21. TN
Most likely to flip
Here’s my ranking for all the races — although I don’t think anything is even remotely possible once you get down to around 20
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Oregon
7. Maine
8. Mississippi (Wicker)
9. Louisiana (D held seat)
10. Minnesota
11. North Carolina
12. Kentucky
13. New Jersey (D held seat)
14. Texas
15. Oklahoma
16. Nebraska
17. Kansas
18. Georgia
19. Idaho
20. South Carolina
21. Tennessee
22. Alabama
23. Mississippi (Cochran)
24. South Dakota (D)
26. Michigan (D)
27. West Virginia (D)
28. Iowa (D)
29. Delaware (D)
30. Illinois (D)
31. Wyoming (Barasso)
32: tie (impossible)
Wyoming (Enzi)
Massaschusetts (D)
Rhode Island (D)
Montana (D)
Arkansas (D)
Independent Dean Barkley won’t run
http://www.startribune.com/pol…
Barkley would not have won but he may have drawn around 10% of the vote. The recent SUSA poll had him drawing roughley equally from Coleman and Franken but my hunch is he would have hurt Franken more (splitting the anti-incumbant vote). The big remaining question is if Jessie Ventura will run. My guess would be Ventura is just trying to sell books and has no intention of running but you never know.
1 VA Jim Gilmore V Mark Warner
2 NM Steve Pearce V Tom Udall
3 NH John Sununnu V Jeanne Shaheen
4 CO Bob Schaffer V Mark Udall
5 AK Ted Stevens V Mark Beigich
6 MSb Roger Wicker V Ronnie Musgrove
7 MN Norm Coleman V Al Franken
8 NC Elizabeth Dole V Kay Hagan
9 OR Gordon Smith V Jeff Merkley
10 LA Mary Landrieu V John Kennedy
11 ME Susan Collins V Tom Allen
12 KY Mitch McConell V Bruce Lunsford
13 KS Pat Roberts V Jim Slattery
14 TX John Cornyn V Rick Noriega
15 NE Mike Johanns V Scott Kleeb
16 OK James Inhofe V Andrew Rice
17 NJ Dick Zimmer V Frank Lautneberg
18 ID Jim Risch V Larry LaRocco
19 SD Tim Johnson V Joel Dykstra
20 MI Carl Levin V Jack Hoogendyk
21 GA Saxby Chambliss V Jim Martin ???
22 IA Tom Harkin V Chris Reed
23 MSa Thad Cochran V Erick Flemming
24 AL Jeff Sessions V Vivian Figures
25 WV Jay Rockerfeller V Jay Wolfe
26 MA John Kerry V Jeff Beaty
27 TN Lamar Alexander V Bob Tuke
28 MT Max Baucus V Bob Kelleher
29 DE Joe Biden V Christine O’Donnell
30 SC Lindsey Graham V (Runoff)
31 IL Dick Durbin V Steve Sauerberg
32 WYb John Barasso V Nick Carter?
33 WYa Mike Enzi V Chris Rothfuss ?
34 RI Jack Reed – Unopposed*
35 AR Mark Pryor – Unopposed
Below is a table averaging all of the rankings.
Blanks (states not ranked) were replaced with the next highest ranking. For example, if someone ranked 14 races, the remaining states received a ranking of 15.
The sample size (number of entries) is 26.
The number in parentheses is the average ranking.
1. Virginia (1.00)
2. New Mexico (2.00)
3. New Hampshire (3.46)
4. Colorado (3.54)
5. Alaska (5.19)
6. Mississippi – B (7.15)
7. Oregon (7.50)
8. Minnesota (7.81)
9. North Carolina (9.04)
10. Louisiana (10.88)
11. Maine (11.04)
12. Kentucky (11.73)
13. Kansas (13.42)
14. Texas (13.96)
15. Nebraska (14.54)
16. Oklahoma (14.69)
17. Idaho (15.23)
18. New Jersey (15.88)
19. Georgia (16.50)
Below that, there were very few entries for other states, so they were not included.
my list:
1/ VIRGINIA
2/ NEW MEXICO
3/ COLORADO
4/ NEW HAMPSHIRE
5/ ALASKA
6/ OREGON
7/ NORTH CAROLINA
8/ MISSISSIPPI(b)
9/ MINNESOTA
10/MAINE
11/KENTUCKY
12/OKLAHOMA
13/TEXAS
14/KANSAS
15/NEBRASKA
16/GEORGIA(martin candidacy only)
17/IDAHO
Here is where Rasmussen has the races using the most recent polls. I only use Rasmussen because they are the only firm polling Senate races frequently. The only race they are obviously well off the mark is KY.
VA – Up by 27
NM – Up by 16
NH – Up by 7
CO – Up by 6
KY – Up by 5
MS – Up by 1
AK – Down by 2
MN – Down by 3
ME – Down by 7
OR – down by 9
KS – Down by 9
NC – Down by 14
NE – Down by 15
TX – Down by 17
Races Rasmussen has not polled which may matter: OK, ID
Dem seat in danger
LA – Up by 3