Recent rasmussen polls have shown Obama doing very well in three Midwest states, Montana, South and North Dakota. Obama leads in Montana by 5% is tied in North Dakota and is behind by 4% in South Dakota.
These are all states that went to Bush by more then 20% margins in 2004. I’m wondering how Obama is doing so well in those states, those states are not Democrat states, don’t have large Black or young populations. I’m a bit shocked that those three states are all competitive and might in fact go Democrat this year at the president level.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
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Don’t forget that Democrats hold 5 of the 6 US Senate seats in those two states, plus 1 popular Governor and one of the three house seats. Those states may be “Red”, but it’s a different flavor of Red than the states in the south. People there don’t like things like warrentless wiretaps and holding people for years without charge. It’s less of the social conservatism and more of a libertarian bent. Plus, while Bush won those states by large percentages, his wins weren’t large by number of votes. If Obama can change a few tens of thousands of voters’ minds and energize some new folks to come out and vote, he could flip one of these states. Finally, in states that are generally ignored by the campaigns, people who might favor the “minority” party may feel little incentive to come out and vote. The mere fact that Obama is actually campaigning in these states show the folks there a level of interest that they aren’t used to getting from a Democrat, and make them more likely to consider him.
there was no Kerry or Gore campaign in SD and ND, and only a hint of one in Montana – inflating Bush’s lead into the 20%+ range.
All three states have a strong history of electing Democrats to federal and state office (Brian Schweitzer, Jon Tester, Max Baucus, Tim Johnson, Stephanie Herseth, Tom Daschle, Byron Dorgan, Kent Conrad, Earl Pomery — even going back to George McGovern, Mike Mansfield, Lee Metcalfe, Quentin Burdick and a proud Democratic tradtion,). Voters in these states have shown they are very open to voting for Democratic candidates – and in a year when Bush/Cheney have destroyed the Republican brand so badly, it provides an opening for Obama.
Assuming Obama can continue to pursue something resembling a 50 state strategy, these states will produce significantly higher Democratic percentages than most recent years. The same will be true in places like Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming — even if Obama doesn’t win any of these states simply having an actual campaign in place bodes well for down ticket races and building a volunteer, donor and voter base for future campaigns. Talking about “changing the map” isn’t just hyperbole.
If McCain or the RNC don’t play at all in MT or ND, or they wait until very late, then Obama has a 50-50 shot or even better.
I think it unlikely that neither McCain nor the RNC campaigns or advertises there at all, unless they stunningly remain delusionally hopeful that their floor is high enough to eek out a plurality based on the states’ natural political bent alone.
The realistic best-case scenario is that the Rethugs wait until it’s too late to prevent these states from being dead heats into election day, in which case Obama pulls out at least one of ’em.
But if the Rethugs get involved early, they’ll win these. They’ll just have less to spend elsewhere, so we’ll kick their butts in Ohio.
1. Montana – I’d easily put this race as the most likely pickup of the three. We have Schweitzer and Baucus both likely to win re-election with 65%+ of the vote and Montana did vote for a Dem as recently as 1992, even if that was partly due to Ross Perot on the ballot.
I’d give Obama about a 35-40% chance of winning MT.
2. North Dakota – Obama’s style of populism seems to be playing well in ND. Though I’m not sure that will hold once ND voters realize how liberal he is on social issues.
I’d give Obama a 25% chance at ND.
3. South Dakota – The most conservative of the 3 states mentioned.
I’d give Obama a 10% chance of winning here.
In all three of these states Bob Barr on the ballot could help us. These are states with a lot of libertarians.