| Legislative Body | Composition |
|---|---|
| OK-Senate TN-Senate PA-House IN-House MT-House ME-Senate NY-Senate OR-House MT-Senate NV-Senate WI-Assembly TX-House MI-House IA-House OH-House TN-House DE-House WI-Senate AZ-House AK-Senate IL-House |
24-24 16-16-1 102-101 51-49 50-49-1 18-17 32-30 31-29 26-24 11-10 52-47 79-71 58-52 53-47 53-46 53-46 22-19 18-15 33-27 11-9 67-51 |
We’re going to try something new here at Swing State Project: a list of competitive state legislature races for 2008. However, we aren’t breaking them down into the tossup/lean/likely framework that you’re familiar with. Unlike Senate and House races, where there is abundant polling and fundraising information to help us make informed decisions, state legislatures are jigsaws made up of hundreds of different races, most of which we know precious little about. Therefore, we’re simply listing the closest legislative bodies, starting with the ones that are tied and working downward based on percentage of seats held by the majority party.
There are a few legislative bodies that are close enough to be on this list, but aren’t included because they’re elected in off-years (Louisiana House, 53 D/49 R/1 I/2 V) or everyone gets elected all together in 2010 (Michigan Senate, 17 D/21 R).
This list makes a few of these legislative bodies look to be at more risk of flipping than they actually are. For instance, the Tennessee Senate isn’t likely to flip back to us this year, as we’re facing the potential loss of Democratic held open seats in GOP-leaning rural areas due to retirement. Conversely, Democrats in the Oregon House are likely to strengthen their position because of Republican retirements in suburban Dem-leaning seats. Indiana Democrats also seem optimistic about their ability to hold the razor-close Indiana House.
Likewise, there are chambers where reality might place them a little higher on the list. Most prognosticators, for instance, would agree that the New York Senate flipping to Democratic control is all but a done deal at this point, what with Majority Leader Joe Bruno already having hit the eject button and several GOP old-timers in strongly Democratic seats running on fumes. Similarly, there’s a lot of optimism about retaking the Wisconsin Assembly.
Also, there is a handful of states where the number of seats needed to flip, and the small number of constituents per seat, make it possible that anything can happen. (Consider the New Hampshire House of Representatives in 2006. The GOP controlled 62% of the seats, making it look safe. The Democrats flipped 90 seats (out of 400… NH has by far the largest state legislature) to take firm control. No one saw that coming, proof that anything can happen at this level.)
Alaska may be a prime example, where Dems only need to flip two seats to take control of the Senate… and with indictments cutting a swath through the Republican caucus in the Senate, the popular Governor now facing a mini-scandal of her own, and potentially big Obama coattails, it may be the year to make it happen. The Senates in both North and South Dakota also need only a few flipped seats to change hands, and, again, with Obama coattails, it’s possible; the same applies to the perpetually-close Montana House.
As stated during last month’s state legislature overview, though, useful links about state legislatures are few and far between in the blogosphere, so we need our readers to help be our eyes and ears. If you have any further insights into any of these races or helpful links, please share in the comments.
I think our baseline is +3 to +5, with any many as +10 possible (I’m not kidding). Among other things, we’re outraising them by a lot and they left 19 of our seats uncontested in the House. Not only that, but I would say that somewhere between 0 and 1 (maybe David Edwards) of our House seats is under any threat this fall.
I wonder too if it might be more instructive to rank these chambers by the absolute difference between parties rather than by percentage control by party. For example, I think the AK senate would be easier to flip (change 2 seats, actually 1 seat since Dems I think already have functional control) than the Michigan or Texas house.
I’d place the Delaware House of Reps. a Toss-up at this point, with several juicy opportunities to win the 2 seats necessary to take the majority.
But I’ll almost guarantee anyone that 2008 will be similar to 2006 in the state house/senate races. We should pickup another half dozen plus chambers at minimum with only 1 or 2 lost.
The only chambers we hold that I think we may actually lose are OK-Sen, PA-Hou, IN-Hou and MT-Sen.
I read somewhere that Dems and moderate repubs already have a coalition that effectively controls the Alaska legislature despite repubs having an edge in seats held.
Lou Jacobson, a columnist with stateline.org (he’s also affiliated with Roll Call), wrote a piece in March ranking every legislature: http://www.stateline.org/live/… .
He does a very good job, considering the difficulty of the task (the drop down menu on the right is the cool part).
The National Conference of State Legislatures’ StateVote also is really useful for checking the latest partisan control numbers: http://www.ncsl.org/statevote/… . If memory serves, NCSL puts out a list of the most competitive legislative chambers during their annual meeting, which is taking place this week in New Orleans.
I’m a reporter with Governing Magazine, CQ’s sister publication that covers state and local government. If you’ll permit a shameless plug, here’s a link to the legislatures category on our politics blog: http://governing.typepad.com/b…
http://blog.cleveland.com/open…
Looks like Governor Strickland is pulling some slick moves in appointing House republicans and potential House republicans to state jobs in order to improve Dem chances of taking the state House. At least two republicans have already abandoned state house runs for these appointments.
around picking up the WI Assembly. It’s a done deal. Republicans have had 8 retirements, and Wood will caucus with Democrats if he wins his independant bid (A done deal) since he isn’t being challenged by a Democrat or Republican – Which means we only need two pickups to flip the assembly.
The Republicans in the coalition are, if anything, some of the more conservative ones in the Senate (although, from my understanding, the Democrats did have some real power). The Republican Senate President who orchestrated the deal has announced that she is not seeking reelection, after an ally of Gov. Palin targeted her in a primary — Palin is more sympathetic to the Republican Minority than to the bipartisan coalition. That said, Democrats are very optimistic about winning a tenth seat this year, which presumably would result in a new power-sharing arrangement.
Democrats control the NC House 68-52.
Democrats control the NC Senate 31-19.
All seats are up for election every 2 years, including this November.
Of the 120 House seats, 59 are uncontested by the other major party this year. A handful of races do have hopeless Libertarian candidates. Of the 59, Democrats go into the election with a 34-25 edge.
Of the 50 Senate seats, 21 are uncontested by the other major party this year. Of the 21, the GOP goes into the election with a 11-10 edge.
So out of 170 seats in the NC General Assembly, 80 are uncontested (47%), with Dems holding a 44-36 edge.
I hate handing the GOP 36 seats without even offering up a token candidate. You never know when an untimely arrest might make a candidate unelectable, except when they are unopposed.
Well I don’t have any links to pass on but I can pass on the material in my spreadsheet.
ASSEMBLY 52 – 47 GOP advantage
Dem seats at risk
AD5 – Kaukauna (Fox River Valley)
Dem Tom Nelson v. GOP Jill Steineke – on the GOP target list
AD37 – Ft. Atkinson – incumbent Andy Jorgenson
freshman Jorgenson attempts to solidify hold on a 2006 takeover district GOP awaits primary results
AD43 – Janesville – Rep. Kim Hixon
Hixon won in closest race from 2006 is seriously challenged by former GOP Rep. Debi Towns. Toss up expected to remain so until election day
AD49 – Platteville – Fresh Rep Phil Garthwaite
Garthwaite awaits GOP primary as they attempt to reclaim a 2006 lost seat
AD51 – Dodgeville – Rep. Steve Hilgenberg
Hilgenberg faces GOP attempt to retake a 2006 lost seat. Nathan Russell GOP candidate.
AD88 – Green Bay – freshman Rep. Jim Soletski
Soletski attempts to solidify hold on seat, challenged by Tony Theisen
AD93 Eau Claire – Rep. Jeff Smith
Jeff Smith rode surge in UW- Eau Claire student vote to take seat in 2006. Awaits primary GOP foe John Schiess vs. Darcy Field.
Dem Total seats at risk thought to be 7
GOP seats at risk
AD22 – Milwaukee OPEN seat
Dems await primary to run against Yash Wadhwa
AD23 – Mequon GOP incumbent Jim Ott
major Dem target as Dem challenger Rene Settle-Robinson attempts to oust GOP incumbent Jim Ott
AD24 – Menominee Falls – GOP open seat
both parties await the results of competitive primaries
AD36 – Crivitz – GOP incumbent Jeffery Mursau
major Dem takeover attempt as ex-Rep. Stan Gruszynski attempts a return to Assembly
AD42 – Oxford – inc. GOP Rep. J.A. “Doc” Hines
Fred Clark in serious challenge to seat of elderly Hines in district tending away from GOP of late.
AD47 – Cambria – GOP Open Seat
both parties await primary results
AD50 – Loganville – GOP Open Seat
both parties await primary results
AD53 – Oshkosh – GOP Open Seat
Dem. Jeff Mann attempts upset awaits GOP primary results
AD55 – Neenah – GOP Rep. Dean Kaufert
supreme homophobe Dean Kaufert facing surprisingly strong challenge from Mark Westphal
AD57 Appleton – GOP Open Seat
2006 Dem challenger Penny Schaber, who nearly upset, and sent into early retirement, Rep. Steve Weikert, is running again in 2008. GOP primary awaits, but Schaber never stopped running and is perceived to be ahead of ether Peter Stueck or Jo Eglehoff. Part of the Rep. Steve Kagen led Dem. renaissance in Outagamie Co. Leans Dem at this point. As Kagen goes, so goes Schaber?
AD68 – Chippewa Falls – GOP Rep. Terry Moulton
Moulton facing strong challenge from Kristen Dexter. Major Dem target in 2008.
AD80 – Oregon (southern Dane county & vicinity) Rep. Brent Davis (faux moderate in Gordon Smith mold)
only seat with Dane Co. link not in Dem fold. Near miss in 2006. Dems await primary between John Waelti & Kristen Wisnefske. Major Dem target in 2008.
AD90 – Green Bay – Rep Karl Van Roy
Lou Ann Weix mounting significant challenge to Rep. Van Roy. Major Dem target in 2008.
AD92 – Black River Falls – GOP Open Seat
GOP nominee Dan Hellman awaits results of Dem primary between Mark Radcliffe & Curtis Miller.
GOP seats at risk 14
so you may be right. I got this from the NCSL web site.
Dems have 18-15 majority
Dem seats at risk ( 3 )
Sen12 – Eland – Dem Open Seat
Dem. Jim Holperin faces GOP Tom Tiffany. Doyle appointed Conservatve Dem incumbent Roger Breske to Railroad Board to get his triangulating behind out of the Senate. Leans Dem.
Sen22 – Kenosha Co. – Sen. Robert Wirch
Sen. Wirch facing serious challenge from GOP challenger Ben Bakke
Sen30 – Green Bay – Sen. Dave Hansen
Sen. Hansen tragically ran over and killed a toddler grandchild in his driveway about a year ago, very sad story. Faces Chad Fradette who is very much a wingnut. Hansen caught break when Mark Green appointed to African Ambassadorship, freeing up John Gard to run against Steve Kagen rather than Dave Hansen.
GOP seats at risk ( 3 )
Sen8 – River Falls – Sen Alberta Darling v. Rep. Sheldon Wasserman
Club of Growth endorsed Dem. Dr. Wasserman puts Sen. Darling at serious risk. Personally, I can’t get excited about this one.
Sen10 – River Falls – Sen. Shelia Harsdorf
Harsdorf faces serious challenge from Alison Page.
Sen32 – LaCross – Sen. Dan Kapanke
Dem. challenger Tara Johnson in marquis race. Lacross, along with Fox River Valley are the areas of state that Dems putting most effort into flipping. Major Obama effort expected to assist Johnson who is charging hard. Toss up at this point.
Personally, I am incredibly disappointed that the Democrats failed to even field a challenger to Sen Glenn Grothmann Sen20 – West Bend. Grothmann is the Jesse Helms of the Wisconsin Senate and the Dems are giving him a free pass. Unacceptable.
FWIW concurs with 53-46:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O…
Retaking control of some chambers (NY Senate, Wisconsin Assembly) may be well within reach, likely or even guaranteed in 2008.
But, the goal should be to pick up as many seats as possible above a majority in 2008 to protect against whatever happens in 2010.
That would mean targeting (and funding) many races instead of just enough races to gain control in 2008.
This also applies to states where Dems currently have a narrow majority (OR House, MI House, etc.)
Of retaking the state Senate in Ohio by 2010. The districts are so stacked against us it’s literally impossible. We should be able to take the OH state House this year at least.