NV-03: SSP Moves Race From “Lean Republican” to “Tossup”

The Swing State Project is upgrading its rating of the race for Nevada’s 3rd District from “Lean Republican” to “Tossup“.

Several factors have influenced our decision, not the least of which are two recent polls showing Porter in very rough shape. In both surveys, Porter is hovering near the 40% mark, well below the threshold of vulnerability for an incumbent. In an Anzalone-Liszt poll released today, Porter is actually trailing Titus by four points.

Titus is a well-known commodity in the district, and as we said earlier, she may stand to benefit from a sense of buyer’s remorse after voters narrowly opted to elect Jim Gibbons over her to the Governor’s mansion in 2006. (Gibbons has had a spectacularly awful and scandalous first term.) Even while losing her gubernatorial bid by four points, she won the 3rd District by two points. As a last-minute replacement candidate for attorney Robert Daskas, her fundraising has been stellar so far, and she won’t be hurting for outside assistance.

A D+1 district, the 3rd CD was designed to be fiercely competitive, but the winds seem to be shifting in the Democratic direction in recent months. According to the most recent numbers, Democrats have racked up a 24,000-strong voter registration advantage in the district.

This may be the type of environment that will finally do Jon Porter in.