SSP’s Competitive House Race Ratings (8/10/08)

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
CT-05 (Murphy)
GA-12 (Barrow)
IL-08 (Bean)
IN-02 (Donnelly)
KS-03 (Moore)
MN-01 (Walz)
NH-02 (Hodes)
NY-19 (Hall)
NY-24 (Arcuri)
OH-18 (Space)
PA-08 (Murphy)
TX-23 (Rodriguez)		 AL-05 (Open)
AZ-05 (Mitchell)
AZ-08 (Giffords)
CA-11 (McNerney)
FL-16 (Mahoney)
GA-08 (Marshall)

IL-14 (Foster)
IN-09 (Hill)
KS-02 (Boyda)
KY-03 (Yarmuth)
MS-01 (Childers)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
NJ-03 (Open)
NY-13 (Open)
NY-20 (Gillibrand)

NY-25 (Open)
OR-05 (Open)
PA-04 (Altmire)
PA-10 (Carney)
PA-11 (Kanjorski)
VA-11 (Open)
WI-08 (Kagen)		 AK-AL (Young)
AZ-01 (Open)
IL-11 (Open)
LA-06 (Cazayoux)
LA-04 (Open)
MN-03 (Open)
NJ-07 (Open)
NM-01 (Open)
NV-03 (Porter)
NY-26 (Open)
OH-15 (Open)
OH-16 (Open)


TX-22 (Lampson)
WA-08 (Reichert)		 AL-02 (Open)
CO-04 (Musgrave)
CT-04 (Shays)
FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart)
FL-24 (Feeney)
FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart)

IL-10 (Kirk)
MI-07 (Walberg)
MI-09 (Knollenberg)
MO-06 (Graves)
MO-09 (Open)
NC-08 (Hayes)
NM-02 (Open)
NY-29 (Kuhl)
OH-01 (Chabot)
OH-02 (Schmidt)
VA-02 (Drake) 		AZ-03 (Shadegg)
CA-04 (Open)
CA-26 (Dreier)
CA-46 (Rohrabacher)
CA-50 (Bilbray)
FL-08 (Keller)
FL-13 (Buchanan)
FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen)
ID-01 (Sali)
IL-06 (Roskam)
IL-18 (Open)
IN-03 (Souder)
KY-02 (Open)
LA-07 (Boustany)
MD-01 (Open)
MN-06 (Bachmann)
NE-02 (Terry)
NJ-05 (Garrett)
NV-02 (Heller)
OH-07 (Open)
PA-03 (English)
PA-06 (Gerlach)
PA-15 (Dent)
TX-07 (Culberson)
TX-10 (McCaul)
VA-05 (Goode)
VA-10 (Wolf)
WV-02 (Capito)
WY-AL (Open)
12 D
18 D, 4 R
2 D, 12 R
17 R
29 R

Races to Watch:































AL-03 (Rogers) IL-13 (Biggert) NJ-04 (Smith)
CA-03 (Lungren) IN-04 (Buyer) OH-03 (Turner)
CA-45 (B. Mack) KS-04 (Tiahrt) OK-01 (Sullivan)
CA-52 (Open) LA-01 (Scalise) PA-05 (Open)
FL-09 (Bilirakis) MN-02 (Kline) SC-01 (Brown)
IA-04 (Latham) NC-10 (McHenry) SC-02 (Wilson)

Today’s Ratings Changes:

  • LA-04 (Open): Lean Republican to Tossup

    • Democrats have a key advantage to help offset the Republican lean of this ancestrally Democratic but R+6.5 district: namely, a big gap in recruitment quality. Democrat Paul Carmouche has served as the District Attorney of Caddo Parish, the most populous parish of the district, for 30 years, and is expected to romp in the September primary. The Republican field is more fluid (and less impressive): trucking executive Chris Gorman, Chamber of Commerce official Jeff Thompson, and physician John Fleming have all raised or loaned themselves credible amounts, and it’s possible that the GOP primary won’t be decided until the October 4th runoff.

    Carmouche has out-raised and out-banked his GOP opponents, and is leading the field in his campaign’s internal polling so far. While that gap may close once the GOP candidates raise their name recognition, Carmouche’s law and order credentials and conservative style are a solid fit for this district, and the DCCC has already reserved a big chunk of ad time in this dirt cheap media market.

  • LA-07 (Boustany): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

    • A late-breaking race, the odds are long for Democrats in this R+7.4 district, but the DCCC’s recruitment of state Senator Don Cravins, Jr. makes this contest a bit more interesting. A self-styled conservative Democrat, Cravins raised an impressive $107,000 in the last two weeks of June, and has since been added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program. While Cravins, who is African-American, would have to beat history in order to become elected in this 25% black district, it’s a challenge worth paying attention to.

  • MO-09 (Open): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

    • Despite enduring a not-so friendly primary, Republicans begin the general election campaign for the open seat of GOP Rep. Kenny Hulshof with an early edge in this R+6.5 district. Democrats have a credible candidate in state Rep. Judy Baker, who by all accounts ran a strong campaign to win her primary against a former state House speaker and Senate minority leader. The DCCC is taking this race seriously, adding Baker to Red to Blue and placing a $940,000 ad time reservation, which could help narrow the race this fall.

    36 thoughts on “SSP’s Competitive House Race Ratings (8/10/08)”

    1. A few other races that I’d recommend a ratings change:

      CT-04 – Leans Rep to Tossup – This race has been a tossup for a long time IMO.  Himes is keeping pace in fundraising and seems to be the best candidate we’ve had run against Shays to date.

      MI-07 – Leans Rep to Tossup – Walberg is probably the most endangered republican incumbent of the cycle and has been outraised by a good clip.  No way this one is leans Rep.

      NY-29 – Leans Rep to Tossup – Kuhl seems to be barely even campaigning and has been badly outraised this cycle.  Another race that is easily a tossup.

      CO-04 – Leans Rep to Tossup – The general concensus seems to be that this is Musgrave’s toughest hallenge to date, and considering how close her prior races have been it’s hard not put have this one as a tossup.

      AL-02 – Leans Rep to Tossup – I know, the district is very heavily republican.  But Bright’s poll has him up big and even Love’s poll has the race a dead heat.  Bright is the perfect kind of Dem to run here and the republicans just finished an ugly primary.  I’d say this one should be a tossup.

      WY-AL – Likely Rep to Leans Rep – Trauner is a great candidate lost by a razor thin margin in 2006.  He has a big CoH advantage over both republicans who are still fighting for the nomination.  This race is easily leans rep right now, and I think it is likely to be a tossup by election day.

    3. The Republicans nominated the non-crazy Club for Growther, and it’s a solidly Republican district. It takes more than a big check from the DCCC to win a race like this.

    4. both MO-06 and MO-09 should be.

      Both will be tough battles but Barnes and Baker are strong candidates in places where Republicans haven’t had to face a strong candidate very often.

      I think some people thought I was crazy touting Judy Baker as a stronger candidate than a former Speaker of the House (Steve Gaw) and a former Senate Minority Leader (Ken Jacob) but the fact that she won 16 out of 25 counties in the primary including the former Speaker of the House’s home county 48% to 32% and the former Senate Minority Leader’s home county (also her home county) 65% to 19% should give some sense of her ability to win tough campaigns.

    5. Time to take this race off the board. Republican nominee  Steve Greenberg has not raised sufficient funds to take down Melissa who is settling into a long term career in the House.  Just because this district has been close recently is not really a good reason to presume a close race in 08.  Melissa will win in a walk in 08, barely noticing Greenberg before she steps on him. Squish.

    6. and Cazayoux is going to lose his so it will be a wash with the make-up of the LA delegation.

      I think it honestly might be time to move NH-01 into the Toss Up. I live in this district and have a very bad feeling about it. Jeb Bradley is extremely well funded and has led in the last poll or two if I’m not mistaken. Manchester is the largest city in the district and is also heavily conservative and podunk. It pains me to say it but I think she has a 40% chance at best of keeping her seat.

    7. I know it was close in 2006, but this year the GOP has a joke candidate who has raised almost no money at all.  This race has no business even being on a watch list since Barrow won his primary easily.

    8. This is a rural district in Central PA.  We are trending blue and with the massive amounts of Democratic voter registrations, this race will be competitive.

      I urge everyone to take a look at the Democratic candidate from this district, Mark B. McCracken.  He is a life-long resident of the district and has served in elected office for over 10 years.  He is now in his second term as a County Commissioner and has a strong reputation for getting things done.

      You can visit his site at http://www.mccrackenforcongres…

      Thank you.

    10. CT-04 to toss up. CQpolitics has done it already and they’re are normally too conservative and cautious on their estimates if anything.

      In addition, it’s pretty clear that Sydney Hayes is the Randy Graf of this cycle’s competitive Arizona district, and politically, it’s views are similar. Whether Howard Shanker or Ann Kirkpatrick win the primary, (though many on the ground have said he is running a far better campaign despite spending and raising much less money and how he would be the candidate who would get native Americans to turnout in the highest numbers for a Democrat), you’d have to rank her the underdog. Especially with her poor funding and really extreme views. Her gaffes have also not helped her. I would definitely suggest goiing back and changing to leans Dem, as Cqpolitics has already done.

      MI-07 is definitely not leaning Republican right now. Wahlburg is a controversial representative and a lousy campaigner with a history of gaffes and controversy. Schauer already represents a quarter of the district in the State Senate, including the critical Battle Creek area, he has a high profile, and has been outpacing Wahlburg in the fundraising department. This is a moderate district, and, it’s former Republican representative has still not endorsed Wahlburg. This is kind of like a MD-01 situation, except MI-07 is nine points to left of MD-01, at least.

      And, FL-13, with Buchannon just getting hit by an avalanche of scandals when voters are up to their ears in scandal, I have to say move to leans R. He is really getting beat up over it. Jennings is a good campaigner and fundraiser who ran a close race last time and just barely lost. On top of everything else, this Sarasota County, the main part of this district, and located entirely in it, is trending Democratic and the non-Cuban hispanic population is growing rapidly there, and Democratic registration is much outpacing Republican.

      1. On the West end of the District Boone County which has the city of Columbia accounts for 25% of the 9th District’s voters.

        On the east end of the district the counties of Franklin, Warren and part of St. Charles represent the suburban St. Louis part of the district and account for another 25% of the District. These three St. Louis suburbs in the 9th District actually lean Republican (Baker is from Columbia on the other end of the District rather than the St. Louis suburbs) but are more favorable to Baker vs. Luetkemeyer than Baker vs. Onder.

        The remaining 50% of the District is rural.

        In her primary Baker went up against a rural candidate who was a former Speaker of the Missouri House (Steve Gaw) and she won 16 of 25 counties, with Gaw winning 7 counties and another candidate (Lyndon Bode) winning 2 counties. Baker won 12 of the District’s 21 rural counties including Steve Gaw’s county of residence which she won 48% to 32%.

        Pundits think it will be an uphill climb for her to win in rural areas but that is what they all said about the primaries and she made that climb. Listening to the pundits, the expectation was that Gaw would win most of the counties and Baker would have to squeak out a win by winning Boone County by a large margin. Baker won the majority of the rural counties and thus won by a much larger margin than expected.

        Luetkemeyer comes from the Southwest end of the District and Baker should do well in some of the larger rural counties in the Northeast that went for McCaskill in 2006.  

        This is a District that leans Republican and it is true that the Democratic base area (Columbia/Boone County) is only 25% of the District, but Democrats have some good rural counties that went for McCaskill in 2006. It is a bit more complicated than a 25/75 split. It is actually a 25/25/50 split and there is a lot of variation in the rural counties..some are very Republican, others are swing, others actually lean Democratic.  

    11. When we get some polling data on FL-13 we will see if Buchanan’s problems have translated to the Florida voters.  FL-13 may go our way this election.

      1. the Bush effect is gone from the state of Texas, TX-22 has received tremendous amount of hispanic/black/asian growth since the 2000 census, Lampson is now the incumbent, Olson’s political experience consists of being a chief of staff to an unpopular senator (Cornyn), while Democrats in Harris County are doing a massive push to retake county offices, while Democrats in Fort Bend are mobilizing similarly with Richard Morrison (this is in addition to Galveston County being a Democratic Stronghold in this district). No doubt that this district will be extremely tough to hold, and is our biggest vulnerability currently. But it’s wayyy too premature to write him off.

        In LA-06, i’d also say Cazayoux is strongly favored, while LA-07 we have no chance in hell. Why? Louisiana incumbents haven’t lost since reconstruction. Michael Jackson or no Michael Jackson, incumbency should push Cazayoux (and Bustany) across the finish line.

      2. I thought he was as well, but I’ve been paying closer attention lately. Nick has been visible. A bit late, but he’s out like he should be now. DCCC is on the air (saw their ad attacking Olson this morning while watching Olympics) and Olson is broke.

        The guy running Nick’s camp is smart. He’s got offices open in both Fort Bend and Harris, Olson just has Fort Bend, and seems to be thinking the margins there will be enough. That’s a lie. The conservative margins usually come from Harris which is just going to collapse this year. THe coordinated campaign is doing wonders, Obama’s staff is registering new voters and the Harris part of the district intersects with the Competitive SD-11 and Competitive HD 144 and 129 (Disclaimer, I work for the HD 129 candidate).

        My criticism. Needs an office in Galveston. Seems to be relying that voters will just show up there.

        Toss up is where this race belongs due to Olson’s lack of funds and how Lampson will perform better than expected in Harris this year.

    12. Of these prognostications, I am most curious about two of the “Races to Watch.”  

      To your way of thinking, what do Jane Mitakides in Ohio 3 and Nels Ackerson in Indiana 4 have going for them?  

      It looks like they have each had at least some success putting a few dollars together and like their Republican opponents have not raised warchests that are all that impressive.  

      Is there other information?  

      Any of the conventional wisdom folks (Rothenberg, Cook, etc.) taken any notice of them?  

      Is labor or Emily’s list interested in either?    

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