The Tarrance Group for Tom Rooney (9/7-8, likely voters):
Tim Mahoney (D-inc): 48
Tom Rooney (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Mahoney isn’t out of the woods yet — only 32% say he deserves re-election, compared to 41% who say that it’s time for someone new. Rooney, a former Chicago-area high school principal Pittsburgh Steelers heir, won’t be hurting for the resources he needs to make his case.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.
This is good news. This is the first poll that I have seen. Rooney seems to have been the GOP’s best candidate to challenge Mahoney but Mahoney has been getting good reports in the newspapers and I do agree with your Lean Dem ranking.
This was supposed to be in the GOP’s top 5 pick up opportunities this election cycle. Mahoney being ahead by 7 is a good number. As long as he doesn’t gaffe huge, he should be fine.
Things are looking up for most of our previously thought ‘vulnerable’ incumbents. Could it be possible the GOP picks up only one D seat this election? Mahoney, Boyda, Childers, Chris Carney, and Bud Cramer’s district all look like likely holds for us in Nov.
If Cazayoux squeaks through, this leaves us with only Lampson losing. Ha!
Mahoney should win this if he is by this much in a GOP poll. Hopefully in 2011 he can strike a deal with Republicans in the legislature that creates new Republican seats out of the inland Republican areas in the district and gives him more of the Gold Coast.
Still a tough race, but it looks like Democrats are outperforming Obama in Florida. The big concern is the re-elect number for Mahoney.
You’d think the state would be more competitive at the
Presidential level.
I’ve considering this our 3rd most at-risk seat after TX-22 and LA-06 for a long time. The late Florida primay date helps us in districts like this one. I would not be entirely shocked if we pitched another shutout and lost no seats. Though I still think we’ll drop 1-3 of our own seats.
The game is up! Your @$$ is mine!
Sorry. Couldn’t resist. 😉