The goal has been to get to 60 seats in the senate. Let’s assume that Lieberman still caucuses with the Dems, so that means we need 9 seats.
We’ve currently got 8 seats where we’re either tied or ahead: VA, NM, CO, NH, AK, MN, OR and NC. Its far from a sure thing that we’ll win all of these, but all are legitimate targets and I like our trendlines in all of them.
But that’s only 59, so we have to look beyond them to get to 60. There are a number of races that I think we got a shot to get that 60th.
Three races that I’m giving up on are Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Kentucky. I know Rice and Kleeb are very popular around these parts. I still think Andrew Rice is a terrific candidate, but I always thought the only way Rice had a shot was a Macaca-type gaffe by Inhofe and he hasn’t done it. Kleeb is also a terrific candidate and he’s saying that once he gets his name ID up, his numbers will improve. My question is what is he waiting for, the election is in 6 weeks. I never thought Lunsford really had a shot, even when polls showed him ahead. I always thought this race was more about keeping McConnell occuppied and make him use his considerable warchest on himself
Here are the 3 races that I think could be #60
1. Georgia: Survey USA and Rasmussen show wildly different results of this race. Me being the cynic that I am tend to believe SUSA, but if Ras’ numbers are closer to reality, this is still a race.
2. Maine: I know a lot of people are throwing in the towel on Allen, but I’m not. I know he trails by 13, although I think that poll may have oversampled Republicans as evidenced by Obama’s scant 4 pt. lead. But Maine is the bluest state we’re contesting this cycle and I think a well done ad by Obama and the DSCC’s money-bomb we could see this race turn dramatically quite quickly.
3. Mississippi: This is the closest of the three, but I ahve to admit I’m most bullish about this one. Wicker has been slowly but surely moving up, and unlike Goergia or Maine I don’t really know how they stop Wicker’s momentum.
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The polls seem to have Wicker up by about 5-9 points, but I strongly believe the polls are undercounting the black turnout. Add in Musgrove’s very effective TV ad and the unique situation of having no party ID next to the candidates names and I think we have a good shot there.
After MS I’s put ME at number 10 and Georgia 11.
I still think our likely pickup range is 6-8, but recent trends seem to be going our way in most races so who knows.
Mississippi has completely fallen under the radar, but I keep pushing the view that Musgrove is well positioned. Check out the cross-tabs in the most recent poll. Even though Wicker is up 48-43, the data is fairly favorable to Musgrove. Wicker is winning the white vote 73-23, with just 4% undecided, while Musgrove is winning the black vote 75-7 with 18% undecided. So, while just about all of Wicker’s base is decided, nearly one-fifth of Musgrove’s base isn’t.
Musgrove will win if:
(1) he can hold onto the 24% of the white vote he already has (assuming that final four percent breaks 3-to-1 for Wicker);
(2) the remaining undecided black voters break for him by the same margins, having him end up with 91%; and
(3) black turnout hits 39%+.
If all three come true, he wins. While the high percentage of undecided black voters is concerning, particularly because Musgrove has been criticized in the past for not reaching out more to the MS black community, it should be noted that the same poll found 13% of black voters undecided for President! I have to believe he will win the vote going awy.
Musgrove has a clear path to victory. Let’s hope we see unprecedented turnout, and that that great commercial can grab some more rural votes his way.
Someone asked about this yesterday. MTP will be doing senate debating.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
Not even close. As other’s have noted this is by far our best shot. The DSCC needs to start putting Oregon/North Carolina type money down in MS though to make sure we win.
I think Maine is and always will be competitive but it will need the DSCC to drop the bomb and Allen to stop running a crappy campaign, right now I’m not very confident about that.
While I agree MS is the best shot, I think we’ll probably top out at 59. Although, I’m feeling a lot more like 59 than the 57 I’ve been predicting all along. I’ve felt good about NC from day 1, but am excited to see OR and MN starting to look very doable.
Regardless, if we can get to 58 or 59 it really shouldn’t be that hard to convince a moderate Republican or two to join on cloture votes, which is what really matters. Even if Smith goes down, there are still 3 who are pretty decent on domestic issues, and Hagel may well join in on votes around the war (although we’ll lose Lieberman on those – but regardless of where he caucauses, he’ll still be with us on 80% of the cloture votes).
Still, if anyone had told us last fall that 57-59 would be doable, admit it, we’d all have been thrilled. Frankly, back then 53-55 would have sounded good.