Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/23-25, likely voters):
Charlie Brown (D): 46
Tom McClintock (R): 41
(MoE: ±5%)
Earlier in the month, Brown posted a two-point lead over carpetbagging blockhead Tom McClintock in an internal poll conducted for his campaign. Both candidates have similar favorable numbers (41% for McClintock and 44% for Brown), but McClintock is a bit more banged up, posting a 35% unfavorable rating compared to Brown’s 25%.
The poll also identifies an 18-point gender gap in the race, with women preferring Brown by a 50-36 margin, but men siding with the Conservative Icon by 46-42. Independents also side with Brown by 49-33.
Brown still faces a tough Presidential headwind in this R+11 district (Bush won here by 59-36 and 61-37 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively), but the numbers are a bit better this time around: McCain leads Obama by 51-39. Even if most of those undecideds break to McCain, this will still be an improvement for Team Blue over the last two elections.
SSP is moving its rating of this race from “Likely Republican” to Lean Republican.
Why “Lean”, and not Tossup? Well, for one, we never underestimate the ability of Republicans to rally around their own in GOP strongholds. Brown still has the Presidential headwind to deal with, and those undecideds are still a tough nut to crack. But Brown is looking as good as he’s ever looked right now.
I was expecting a slim McClintock lead. Awesome news if that poll is accurate.
McClintock’s ads are annoying as hell.
I’m voting for brown among other things due to McClintock’s ads saying “Liberal” so often as an insult. Tying him to Code Pink and Pelosi and a soldier hater. I’ve only really seen one ad from Brown so it’s surprising seeing that poll even close. Rarely pay attention to local guys since it’s such a red area here.