House Poll Roundup

As you may have noticed, things have been pretty busy here at the Swing State Project during the past several weeks. With all the news we’ve been discussing, it’s pretty easy to miss a poll while taking a break to blink. So here’s a roundup of all the House race polls released since the start of September. If I’ve missed something, let me know. Incumbents are in italics.
























































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































District Poll Democrat % Republican %
AK-AL Ivan Moore (9/20-22) Ethan Berkowitz 49 Don Young 44
AK-AL Fairleigh Dickinson (9/17-21) Ethan Berkowitz 47 Don Young 41
AK-AL Research 2000 (9/15-17) Ethan Berkowitz 53 Don Young 39
AK-AL Ivan Moore (8/30-9/2) Ethan Berkowitz 54 Don Young 37
AL-02 SurveyUSA (8/26-28) Bobby Bright 39 Jay Love 56
AL-03 Capital Survey Research Center (9/30-10/1) Josh Segall 36 Mike Rogers 45
CA-04 Research 2000 (9/23-25) Charlie Brown 46 Tom McClintock 41
CA-04 Val Smith (9/22-24) Charlie Brown 39 Tom McClintock 47
CA-04 Benenson Strategy Group (8/21-24) Charlie Brown 43 Tom McClintock 41
CO-04 Grove Insight (9/8-10) Betsy Markey 47 Marilyn Musgrave 38
CT-02 University of Connecticut (9/22-28) Joe Courtney 55 Sean Sullivan 27
CT-04 Feldman Group (9/17-18) Jim Himes 45 Chrissy Shays 45
FL-08 Kitchens Group (9/3-6) Alan Grayson 44 Ric Keller 40
FL-09 Momentum Analysis (9/20-22) Bill Mitchell 22 Gus Bilirakis 45
FL-10 Anzalone-Liszt (9/7-11) Bob Hackworth 33 Bill Young 50
FL-13 Public Opinion Strategies (10/1) Christine Jennings 30 Vern Buchanan 46
FL-13 SurveyUSA (9/30-10/1) Christine Jennings 33 Vern Buchanan 49
FL-13 Research 2000 (9/23-25) Christine Jennings 31 Vern Buchanan 43
FL-13 Feldman Group (9/22-23) Christine Jennings 40 Vern Buchanan 44
FL-16 Tarrance Group (9/7-8) Tim Mahoney 48 Tom Rooney 41
FL-18 Research 2000 (9/23-25) Annette Taddeo 36 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 53
FL-24 Hamilton Campaigns (9/11-14) Suzanne Kosmas 42 Tom Feeney 43
FL-25 Research 2000 (9/23-25) Joe Garcia 41 M. Diaz-Balart 45
ID-01 Harstad Strategic Research (9/25-28) Walt Minnick 44 Bill Sali 38
ID-01 Research 2000 (9/17-18) Walt Minnick 35 Bill Sali 46
ID-01 Harstad Strategic Research (9/9-11) Walt Minnick 43 Bill Sali 38
IL-10 Global Strategy Group (8/17-19) Dan Seals 39 Mark Kirk 46
IL-10 Public Opinion Strategies (9/10-11) Dan Seals 29 Mark Kirk 51
IL-11 Public Opinion Strategies (9/17-18) Debbie Halvorson 38 Marty Ozinga 36
IL-11 Anzalone Liszt (9/14-16) Debbie Halvorson 43 Marty Ozinga 35
IL-18 Public Opinion Strategies (8/18-20) Colleen Callahan 27 Aaron Schock 56
IN-02 Research 2000 (9/29-30) Joe Donnelly 53 Luke Puckett 35
IN-03 Cooper & Secrest (9/9-10) Mike Montagano 37 Mark Souder 50
IN-09 SurveyUSA (9/8-10) Baron Hill 50 Mike Sodrel 39
KY-02 SurveyUSA (9/24-25) David Boswell 43 Brett Guthrie 49
KY-02 Garin Hart Yang (8/23-25) David Boswell 41 Brett Guthrie 33
KY-03 SurveyUSA (9/5-7) John Yarmuth 53 Anne Northup 45
KY-04 SurveyUSA (9/30-10/1) Michael Kelley 36 Geoff Davis 58
LA-01 Kitchens Group (9/18-21) Jim Harlan 31 Steve Scalise 42
LA-06 Anzalone-Liszt (9/17-21) Don Cazayoux 48 Bill Cassidy 32
MD-01 Grove Insight (9/9-12) Frank Kratovil 36 Andy Harris 36
ME-01 Moore Information (9/21-22) Chellie Pingree 44 Charlie Summers 33
MI-07 Myers Research (9/23-24) Mark Schauer 42 Tim Walberg 36
MI-07 National Research (9/15-16) Mark Schauer 40 Tim Walberg 50
MI-09 Grove Insight (8/17-19) Gary Peters 41 Joe Knollenberg 37
MN-01 Tarrance Group (9/17-18) Tim Walz 50 Brian Davis 32
MN-03 SurveyUSA (8/26-28) Ashwin Madia 41 Erik Paulsen 44
MO-06 SurveyUSA (9/17-18) Kay Barnes 42 Sam Graves 51
MO-09 Research 2000 (9/17-18) Judy Baker 40 Blaine Luetkemeyer 49
MO-09 SurveyUSA (9/1-2) Judy Baker 38 Blaine Luetkemeyer 50
MS-01 Anzalone Liszt (9/7-10) Travis Childers 51 Greg Davis 39
NC-08 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (9/28-29) Larry Kissell 54 Robin Hayes 43
NC-08 Public Opinion Strategies (9/23&25) Larry Kissell 43 Robin Hayes 46
NC-08 Public Policy Polling (8/25-27) Larry Kissell 39 Robin Hayes 44
NH-01 Research 2000 (9/22-24) Carol Shea-Porter 44 Jeb Bradley 43
NH-01 UNH (9/14-21) Carol Shea-Porter 42 Jeb Bradley 45
NH-02 Research 2000 (9/22-24) Paul Hodes 47 Jennifer Horn 34
NH-02 UNH (9/14-21) Paul Hodes 38 Jennifer Horn 26
NH-02 Anzalone-Liszt (9/14-18) Paul Hodes 50 Jennifer Horn 32
NH-02 Public Opinion Strategies (9/16-17) Paul Hodes 43 Jennifer Horn 39
NJ-02 Zogby International (9/18-20) David Kurkowski 26 Frank LoBiondo 62
NJ-03 Zogby International (9/18-20) John Adler 37 Chris Myers 39
NJ-03 McLaughlin & Associates (9/8-9) John Adler 29 Chris Myers 33
NJ-05 Research 2000 (9/17-18) Dennis Shulman 34 Scott Garrett 49
NJ-07 Anzalone Liszt (8/20-25) Linda Stender 36 Leonard Lance 33
NM-01 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (9/22-23) Martin Heinrich 48 Darren White 42
NM-01 SurveyUSA (8/26-28) Martin Heinrich 51 Darren White 46
NM-02 Research 2000 (9/30-10/1) Harry Teague 47 Ed Tinsley 43
NM-02 Hamilton Campaigns (9/2-5) Harry Teague 46 Ed Tinsley 41
NV-03 Public Opinion Strategies (9/23-24) Dina Titus 39 Jon Porter 41
NV-03 Anzalone Liszt (9/21-24) Dina Titus 46 Jon Porter 37
NY-26 SurveyUSA (9/24-25) Alice Kryzan 37 Chris Lee 48
NY-26 Brilliant Corners Research (9/15-17) Alice Kryzan 39 Chris Lee 29
OH-01 SurveyUSA (9/19-21) Steve Driehaus 44 Steve Chabot 46
OH-02 Research 2000 (9/30-10/1) Vic Wulsin 39 Jean Schmidt 46
OH-02 Momentum Analysis (9/29-30) Vic Wulsin 36 Jean Schmidt 37
OH-02 SurveyUSA (9/19-21) Vic Wulsin 40 Jean Schmidt 48
OH-02 Tarrance Group (9/8-9) Vic Wulsin 36 Jean Schmidt 52
OH-15 SurveyUSA (9/19-21) Mary Jo Kilroy 47 Steve Stivers 42
OH-16 SurveyUSA (9/19-21) John Boccieri 49 Kirk Schuring 41
PA-03 SurveyUSA (9/26-28) Kathy Dahlkemper 49 Phil English 45
PA-04 Public Opinion Strategies (8/17-18) Jason Altmire 49 Melissa Hart 44
PA-06 Public Opinion Strategies (8/19-21) Bob Roggio 28 Jim Gerlach 57
PA-10 Momentum Analysis (9/29-10/1) Chris Carney 50 Chris Hackett 36
PA-10 Lycoming College (9/21-25) Chris Carney 46 Chris Hackett 36
PA-10 Momentum Analysis (8/19-21) Chris Carney 54 Chris Hackett 27
PA-11 Grove Insight (9/14-15) Paul Kanjorski 48 Lou Barletta 39
PA-11 Franklin & Marshall (9/9-14) Paul Kanjorski 35 Lou Barletta 44
TX-07 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (9/7-9) Michael Skelly 37 John Culberson 44
TX-10 Goodwin Simon Victoria (9/28-30) Larry Joe Doherty 38 Mike McCaul 43
VA-02 Bennett Petts Normington (9/21-22) Glenn Nye 40 Thelma Drake 45
WA-08 SurveyUSA (9/7-9) Darcy Burner 44 Dave Reichert 54
WI-08 Public Opinion Strategies (9/16-17) Steve Kagen 46 John Gard 45
WY-AL Research 2000 (9/22-24) Gary Trauner 42 Cynthia Lummis 42

18 thoughts on “House Poll Roundup”

  3. Thanks for posting all this.

    A small request re CT-04: could you please stop calling Chris Shays “Chrissy Shays,” as you do again in this chart?  I know you think it’s funny, but feminizing names as a way to put people down is pretty misogynistic.  It’s the kind of thing that some of your readers, maybe not the ones who comment all the time — or anyway this reader — find very frustrating when otherwise-progressive people do it.  Just look at it this way: if you wouldn’t make fun of someone by kinda joking that they’re black, then don’t make fun of someone by kinda joking that they’re a woman.  Easy.

    BTW, as a Connecticut voter, I’m excited about the real chance we have this year to take out Shays.  Himes seems to be getting a lot of press & money.  If he can pull it off, and Carol Shea-Porter can hold on, then we can actually sweep all of New England…!

  6. MANY thanks for posting this!  For those of us who don’t keep a running tally, this is really useful.

    With the variability of polling organizations, polling techniques, biases, etc, I certainly agree that making a judgment on a single poll is treacherous.  Therefore the more polls the better.  

    Can anyone explain on what basis polls are undertaken?  In some hot races, AK AL for example, there has been extensive polling.  In other hot races, CT 04 and OH 01 are examples, there is but a single poll.  In still others, FL 13 for example, there is a great deal of polling albeit with similar results (except for the Feldman poll).  

    So, on what basis–or bases–are decisions made to poll a particular race?

    If anyone can enlighten me, I’d be appreciative.

    Thanks!

  7. There was this firm called majority watch or something like that that polled something like 50 races late in 2006.  Ayone know if they are going to poll this year?

  8. We have to get another poll for WA-08. I can sense a rant coming on, so I’m just going to run with it.

    Here goes- Burner better not run in 2010. She spent over $3 million in 2006 and is on track to reach $3 million again this year. God knows (or you guys do) how much D-trip will have spent on her behalf over the last two cycles. Is there any excuse why she should get so much money from us but still be 10 points behind (besides her being friends with someone who’s name starts with a “k” and ends with an “os”?

    Thanks. I feel better.

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