“Raaaaaaaaaahm!”
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/30-10/1, likely voters):
Dan Seals (D): 38
Mark “Tiberius” Kirk (R-inc): 44
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±5%)
The major flaw of this poll was that it was conducted during Rosh Hashanah, meaning that some Democratic-leaning voters could have been shut out of the poll in a distict with a significant Jewish population.
Still, though, the numbers are in-line with a Global Strategy Group poll from August showing Kirk ahead by 46-39. But the big number is at the top of the ticket, where Obama is leading McCain by 50-38. John Kerry won this district by only 53-47 in 2004, and Obama is poised to do significantly better here. That will seriously complicate things for faux moderate Mark Kirk as he tries to claw his way up to 50%.
I’d take some comfort out of this. Divide the undecideds anywhere close to evenly and you get a Kirk win.
Considering how expensive the Chicago market is, this race does not seem like a good investment.
We can remove Kirk in 2011 if we have to.
It was plainly obvious that Kirk’s internal poll was a complete joke.
for all the money that is being spent there, i’m not sure it is a great use of money to not even be dead even at this point.
The fact that there is a Republican in an Obama district 30 miles north of base camp for the Obama campaign getting hammered on t.v. and still up 8-10 points tells you that this is going to be an uphill battle. When it’s over Kirk will have raised 5 million-he’s not a self funder, and has known for 2 years he might face Obama, so if he loses it likely means democrats have won 20 or more seats.
Seals has been at this for 4 years now, and couldn’t ask for more advantages than he has. Yet while democrats are doing well in deep red areas like the south, he seemingly can’t get off the ground. This has to be deeply worrying and you have to wonder if the dccc won’t do the math and decide to spend the seals million on 3 other races where the money could go further and have better shots.
It looks like some people were spoiled by 2006! This race is obviously winnable. I’m sorry that Dan Seals isn’t doing as well as many of you require, but he still has a great chance of winning. $300K is NOTHING. The DCCC spent 10 TIMES that for Tammy Duckworth. They spent over 2 million on my current representative’s (Sestak) behalf. I think I might stop clicking through to read the comments.