Rasmussen (10/9, likely voters, 9/18 in parens):
Al Franken (D): 43 (47)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 37 (48)
Dean Barkley (IP): 17 (3)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Talk about a big shift: in the three weeks since the last Rasmussen poll of the Minnesota senate race, Norm Coleman has dropped 11 points. (Some of that is related to the GOP’s rapidly declining fortunes at the Senate level, but Coleman’s constant drip drip of ethical woes can’t be helping.) Al Franken has also dropped, though by a much smaller amount, leaving him with the biggest lead he’s seen all year in Rasmussen.
The real news here is Dean Barkley’s surge, which right now seems to be coming disproportionately out of Coleman’s slice of the pie. However, in the poll’s fine print, only 3% of all voters are “absolutely certain” they will vote for Barkley, so his actual number may be much lower than 17%. The good news is: when uncommitted Barkley voters and other leaners are pushed to choose Franken or Coleman, Franken still leads, 50-46.
However, there’s one other possibility that we at least need to start considering: that Barkley continues to gain, and in fact wins Jesse Ventura-style by elbowing aside two unpopular candidates. Given the very high unfavorables for both Coleman (55% somewhat or very unfavorable) and Franken (53%), it can’t be ruled out.