Tag: Dean Barkley

• DE-Sen: Delaware AG Beau Biden will be returning from his service in Iraq later this month, meaning it’s time for him to decide whether or not he runs for his dad’s former Senate seat. One journo (National Journal’s Erin McPike) already tweets that he’s “definitely in,” which could serve to scare off the already seemingly gun-shy Rep. Mike Castle.

• MA-Sen: There are reports that there are enough votes in both chambers of the state legislature to give Gov. Deval Patrick the power to appoint a short-term replacement Senator. Republicans can use procedural tactics to stall it for a week, but would be out of options after that, meaning a new Senator could be in place by late next week.

• MO-Sen, MO-07: Former state Treasurer and gubernatorial candidate Sarah Steelman’s 2010 cycle is ending with a whimper, not a bang: after starting out looking like a strong primary challenger to Rep. Roy Blunt in the Senate race, she gradually faded from view, then re-emerged to explore a race for Blunt’s old seat in the 7th. Now she’s confirming that she won’t run for anything, at least not in 2010.

• NJ-Sen (pdf): PPP has some extra info from their sample from their gubernatorial poll. As usual, New Jerseyites don’t like anyone: not Barack Obama (45/48 approval), Robert Menendez (27/40), or Frank Lautenberg (38/44). As a bonus, they also find that even in well-educated, affluent New Jersey, there’s still a lot of birtherism (64-21, with 16% unsure) and even a new category: people who think Barack Obama is the anti-Christ. 8% are… let’s just call them anti-Christers… with another 13% not sure.

• MD-Gov: Maryland Republicans have found, well, somebody to run for Governor: businessman Lawrence Hogan, Jr. Hogan says he’ll run but he’ll get out of the race in case his friend ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich shows up, although that’s not looking likely. Hogan ran unsuccessfully against Steny Hoyer in 1992. A better-known figure, State Delegate and radio talk show host Patrick McDonough, also expressed his interest in the race in August, although he too would stand down for Ehrlich.

• MN-Gov: As expected, state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher officially announced that she’s running for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. She joins (taking in a really deep breath here first): Ramsey Co. Attorney Susan Gaertner, former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton, state Senators John Marty and Tom Bakk, state Reps. Tom Rukavina and Paul Thissen, and former legislators Matt Entenza and Steve Kelley, with Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak and St. Paul mayor Chris Coleman also expected to enter the field soon. Also looming on the horizon, according to the article: a possible run by Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley, who broke into double-digits in last year’s Senate race.

• NY-Gov (pdf): Yet another poll of the New York Governor’s race, this time from Marist. As always, Paterson is in disastrous condition, with an approval rating of 20/76. Paterson loses the Dem primary to Andrew Cuomo 70-23, and, if Cuomo happens to die in a bizarre gardening accident before the primary, Paterson loses to Rudy Giuliani 60-34 (although he still manages to tie Rick Lazio, 43-43). Cuomo defeats Giuliani 53-43 and Lazio 71-21.

• PA-Gov: This might pique Joe Hoeffel’s interest. The ex-Rep. and MontCo Commissioner has been considering the gubernatorial race (where there isn’t much of a progressive option in the Dem primary), and now he won a straw poll of 1,000 progressive activists done by Keystone Progress, picking up 35%. Auditor Jack Wagner was at 22, with Allegheny County Exec Dan Onorato at 14, Scranton mayor Chris Doherty at 11, and businessman Tom Knox at 7. Of course, the caveats about generalizing this sample to the larger population are obvious here; the actual Democratic electorate contains a lot of pro-life Catholic voters and ex-GOP suburban moderates.

• SC-Gov: Here’s some very good news out of the Palmetto State: Superintendent of Education Jim Rex is officially in the Governor’s race. Rex had previously expressed his interest and his candidacy started looking likely when he said last week that he wouldn’t run again for his current job. Rex is the only Dem holding statewide office in South Carolina, so despite the state’s dark-red hue may be able to get some traction here thanks to the GOP’s descent into chaos over the Mark Sanford affair (and their reluctance to get behind his Lt. Gov, Andre Bauer). Rex’s new website is here.

• VA-Gov: Creigh Deeds has to be pleased with the new poll from Clarus, an independent pollster whose first poll of the race finds a 42-37 lead for Bob McDonnell, a narrower gap than most pollsters are seeing. They also find 48/43 approvals for Obama, 47/23 for Jim Webb, and 61/21 for Mark Warner. Meanwhile, new fundraising numbers for the race are available. Deeds raised more than McDonnell for the July/August period, $3.5 million to McDonnell’s $3 million. McDonnell still has more cash on hand, $5.8 million to Deeds’ $4.3 million. Also an advantage for McDonnell: the RNC is pledging to spend up to $7 million on behalf of McDonnell (although that figure includes $2.4 million they’ve already spent).

• KY-06: Republicans seem to have a candidate ready to go up against Rep. Ben Chandler in the 6th, who hasn’t faced much in the way of opposition in this GOP-leaning district. Lexington attorney (and former Jim Talent aide)Andy Barr has formed an exploratory committee.

• NJ-07: Woodbridge mayor (and former state Treasurer) John McCormac has turned down the DCCC’s overtures to run against freshman GOP Rep. Leonard Lance in the 7th. (Woodbridge mayor may not sound like much, but it’s one of the largest municipalities in New Jersey and was Jim McGreevey’s launching pad to Governor.)

• NM-02: The race in the 2nd may turn into a clash of self-funding rich oilmen, as GOP ex-Rep. Steve Pearce says he may dip into his own cash to augment his bid to reclaim his seat from Democratic Rep. Harry Teague (who Roll Call says is the 10th richest member of Congress, and put more than a million of his own money into his 2008 bid).

• OR-04: Here’s one campaign that’s already in crash & burn mode: Springfield mayor Sid Leiken’s bid against Rep. Peter DeFazio. Remember Leiken’s tearful apology over the undocumented $2,000 that went to his mother’s real estate company, ostensibly to paying for polling? Now the state elections board is opening an investigation to see if any poll ever actually got taken, after widespread skepticism by polling experts about the poll’s conclusions (most notably that they got 200 respondents out of 268 calls).

• PA-06: The arrival of physician Manan Trivedi to the Dem field in the 6th, where Doug Pike seemed to have everything nailed down, has scrambled things a bit. Trivedi has already announced the endorsement of 2008 candidate Bob Roggio, and a more prominent insider, Berks County Recorder of Deeds Frederick Sheeler, switched to neutral from a Pike endorsement.

• VA-05: It looks like the Republicans have landed their first “real” candidate to go against Rep. Tom Perriello in the 5th: Albemarle County Commissioner Kenneth Boyd. Boyd is the only Republican on the board that runs the county that surrounds Charlottesville, home of UVA and the district’s liberal anchor; this may help Boyd eat a little into Perriello’s Charlottesville base, but he’s unknown in the rest of the district and may not make it out of the primary against state Sen. Rob Hurt, if Hurt gets off the fence and runs.

• Mayors: Amidst all the hullabaloo in New York City last night, there was also a big mayoral contest in Buffalo. Incumbent Dem Byron Brown has essentially been re-elected, beating Michael Kearns 63-37 in the Democratic primary. There is no Republican challenger on the November ballot and Brown controls the minor party lines.

• Votes: There seems to be absolutely no pattern behind who did and didn’t vote to reprimand Joe Wilson in the House. Although (sadly) the vote was mostly along party lines, 12 Dems and 7 GOPers broke ranks. Among Dems, the “no” votes were a mix of Blue Dogs and some of the most outspoken liberals: Arcuri, Delahunt, Giffords, Hinchey, Hodes, Kucinich, Maffei, Massa, McDermott, Gwen Moore, Gene Taylor, and Teague. Among the GOP, it was a few moderates and some of the more mavericky hard-liners: Cao, Emerson, Flake, Walter Jones, Petri, Rohrabacher, and maybe most notably, Bob Inglis, already facing the wrath of the teabagging wing of the party. Five Dems also voted “present,” the best you can do when you can’t vote “meh:” Engel, Foster, Frank, Shea-Porter, and Skelton.

http://minnesota.publicradio.o…

Just for the heck of it.

Today’s Electoral-Vote.com write-up says that Coleman’s lead has dwindled to just FIVE votes (out of some 2.9 million cast), with another 379 Coleman challenges to go today.

I don’t know how many more Franken challenges, absentee ballots, or other miscellany there are to go, though.

Also, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v… says that the Lizard People ballot was rejected as an overvote (causing the person who hilariously made this ballot to probably become pissed at the canvassing board), but the Flying Spaghetti Monster and Frankenstin (sic) ballots were accepted as Franken votes.

Also, according to Coleman’s lawyer, “Lizard People” may in fact be the name of a real person.  Hmm, are the dinosaurs coming back???

Finally, it seems that the Minnesota Star-Tribune is seeking the person who marked the now infamous Lizard People ballot.

UPDATE: http://news.google.com/news/ur… says that Franken is up some 262 votes now.  But of course, let’s not forget that there are several thousand challenged ballots and another 1600 rejected absentees yet to be factored in.  Don’t hold your breath, and don’t become complacent either.

Rasmussen (10/22, likely voters, 10/9):

Al Franken (D): 41 (43)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 37 (37)

Dean Barkley (I): 17 (17)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

There’s been little movement in Minnesota over the last few weeks, according to Rasmussen. Al Franken has lost a few points (apparently back to the undecided column), but things seem pretty stationary. The wild card in this race is independent Dean Barkley, but his rapid climb of the last couple months seems to have plateaued. This sample finds Coleman continuing to have trouble with the favorable/unfavorable question (46/50), while Franken actually cracks the 50% mark on favorability this time (51/47, with a very high 31% viewing him “very unfavorable”).

Univ. of Wisconsin (Big 10 Poll) (10/19-22, likely voters):

Al Franken (D): 40

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 34

Dean Barkley (I): 15

(MoE: ±4.2%)

The Big 10 poll, primarily a poll of presidential battlegrounds in midwestern states, also came out today, and this time they threw in the Minnesota Senate race for good measure (so no trendlines available on this one). Here, Franken leads by 6. Obama leads McCain in this sample by a crushing 57-38.

Rasmussen (10/9, likely voters, 9/18 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 43 (47)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 37 (48)

Dean Barkley (IP): 17 (3)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Talk about a big shift: in the three weeks since the last Rasmussen poll of the Minnesota senate race, Norm Coleman has dropped 11 points. (Some of that is related to the GOP’s rapidly declining fortunes at the Senate level, but Coleman’s constant drip drip of ethical woes can’t be helping.) Al Franken has also dropped, though by a much smaller amount, leaving him with the biggest lead he’s seen all year in Rasmussen.

The real news here is Dean Barkley’s surge, which right now seems to be coming disproportionately out of Coleman’s slice of the pie. However, in the poll’s fine print, only 3% of all voters are “absolutely certain” they will vote for Barkley, so his actual number may be much lower than 17%. The good news is: when uncommitted Barkley voters and other leaners are pushed to choose Franken or Coleman, Franken still leads, 50-46.

However, there’s one other possibility that we at least need to start considering: that Barkley continues to gain, and in fact wins Jesse Ventura-style by elbowing aside two unpopular candidates. Given the very high unfavorables for both Coleman (55% somewhat or very unfavorable) and Franken (53%), it can’t be ruled out.

Princeton Survey Research for Minneapolis Star Tribune (9/30-10/2, likely voters, 9/10-12 in parentheses):

Al Franken (D): 43 (37)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 34 (41)

Dean Barkley (IP): 18 (13)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

OK, the Minnesota senate race is officially making my head hurt. In the last 24 hours, we’ve seen a SurveyUSA poll give Coleman an unbeatable 10-point edge and a Dem internal give Franken a fragile 2-point edge… and now Minnesota’s principal newspaper (the Star Tribune) finds a 9-point lead for Franken, a huge turnaround from a 4-point Coleman lead two weeks ago during the height of Palinmania.

Like the SurveyUSA poll, this poll sees Barkley taking a bigger chunk out of the electorate. Interestingly, though, in this poll Barkley seems to be taking an equal bite out of each party: Franken and Coleman both get the support of 78% of their respective party members, while 12% of both Republicans and Democrats support Barkley. Instead, the real source of Franken’s success in this poll seems to be Coleman’s job approval rating, which has drifted down into Gordon Smith territory at 38%.

The presidential race numbers from the Star Tribune poll won’t be released until Sunday, but somehow I suspect they’ll be a bit better than the 1-point McCain lead that SUSA just reported.