Rasmussen (10/14, likely voters, 9/15 in parentheses):
Jeff Merkley (D): 47 (45)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 47 (46)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
There seems to be a lot of preemptive celebrating of a pickup of this seat, but Rasmussen’s newest poll indicates that Gordon Smith isn’t going to go quietly into the night. It’s a tied race, although that’s actually an improvement from last month, where Smith had a 1-pt. lead.
Rasmussen has tended to be a litle more favorable to Smith than other pollsters recently. Part of that may be that they don’t account for Constitution Party candidate Jeff Dave Brownlow, who vacuumed up 7% of the vote in SurveyUSA polls. Looks like one of the big questions, come election day, will be how many hard-right rural voters come home to Gordo (whom they tend to view as an effete RINO, although their dissatisfaction is more likely to be more from a nativist Paulist angle than a theocon angle) instead of registering the protest vote.
What party split he’s using because honestly his numbers make no sense given his explanation otherwise.
The actual party split is about 12-13% D vs. R….
A third party candidate has cost the GOP an election as it is widely conceded that Barbara Roberts beat Dave Fromayher in 1990 for OR-Governor because of a third party rightie candidate…
and the partisanship of the state leans against you, you’ve got a problem.
I think Gordo has a less-than 50% chance of keeping his seat right now.
That is about in the 65% range.
From the tidbits Scott scared in his summary, this poll seems a bit out of wack. How can Merkley be winning Indies by 8 in a state that Dems have about a 13% voter ID and still only be tied? Granted he’s not taking as many Rs as Smith takes Ds but for these numbers to be accurate, he’d have to only be capturing about 60-65% of his own party.