The Tarrance Group for the NRCC (10/15-16, likely voters, 10/9 in parens):
Tim Mahoney (D-inc): 29 (56)
Tom Rooney (R): 55 (31)
(MoE: ±5.8%)
With numbers that bad, no wonder you’re hearing rumors about Mahoney dropping out of the race. And I don’t think would be a bad call for him — this guy has some serious personal problems that he has to deal with.
Bonus finding: Mahoney’s personal favorable rating has nosedived to 28-53.
What’s especially interesting is that Rooney was getting completely pasted even in the NRCC’s own numbers, pre-scandal. This wasn’t much of a pickup opportunity until Mahoney self-destructed.
Tim and Rahm!
With this lovely spectacle going on, the debacle in IL-06, failing to doing anything in NC-8th…
What’s Rooney like? Is he a good fit for the district and/or a strong candidate? I suspect this will be a difficult seat to win back in 2010.
Totally different district and candidates I know but if Mahoney was winning by such a margin before his problems broke then there is at least a chance of comparable numbers in TX-22 because of the bleak national outlook for Republicans in general.
I’d probably just leave the race blank on my ballot if I lived in the 16th.
i hate the karmic circle sometimes.
That the past two congressman for FL-16, Mark Foley (R) and Mahoney, have been involved in some kind of sex scandal. Did the NRCC do a background check on Tom Rooney before he became the candidate? Who knows?
Mind you, at least Mahoney was involved in a scandal with actual women, and not emailing under-aged male Congressional pages with dirty talk 🙂