Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/22-24 in parentheses):
Jeff Merkley (D): 47 (45)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 41 (40)
Other 6 (6)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Yesterday’s Rasmussen poll showing a tie in the Oregon Senate race gave the blogosphere some pause (as well it should, as this one is by no means over). Research 2000 gives us a bit of very good news, though, and their 6-point spread is more in line with Pollster’s composite of 45-41.
This poll shows a sizable chunk (6%) going to “Other,” which I assume mostly means Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow (who has polled around 7% when specifically named in SurveyUSA polls). (The crosstabs indicate that the biggest support for “Other” is coming from the Independent column, though, not from Republicans, so right-wing GOPers may be staying more loyal to Smith than I’d previously assumed.)
Another interesting bit in the crosstabs: Smith’s favorables/unfavorables are currently at 40%/47%: not as bad for him as they’ve been in Dem internals, but still not the kind of numbers that, y’know, lead to someone getting reelected.
And it’s going to be hard for him to recover given the ridiculous negative ads he’s run.
Btw I went to the Portland City Club today (a nonpartisan citizen’s group with a long record of nonpartisan debates and fun knowledgeable Friday lunches) for what was supposed to be the Merkley-Smith debate but Smith ducked, meaning Merkley got 60 minutes by himself to talk about why he should be elected (with prompting by questions).
If you’re interested: http://www.pdxcityclub.org/for…
He will be swept away in the tide.
Back to crackin’ the whip at your pea factory, Gordo.