MN-06: Tinklenberg Leads Bachmann by 3 in New Poll, SSP Moves Race to “Tossup”

SurveyUSA (10/20-21, likely voters):

Elwyn Tinklenberg (DFL): 47

Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 44

Bob Anderson (IP): 6

(MoE: ±4%)

It seems that every cycle, one Republican hands Democrats a golden opportunity just by shooting their mouth off. In 2004, Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning turned what was supposed to be a blowout into a near-loss after a series of bizarre statements and erratic behavior. In 2006, it was macaca.  And this year, it appears to be Michele Bachmann’s Hardball meltdown.

With Democrat El Tinklenberg surging in both fundraising and now in polls, SSP is changing its rating of this race from Lean Republican to Tossup.

Thanks for delivering those self-inflicted wounds, Kissy Monster.

20 thoughts on “MN-06: Tinklenberg Leads Bachmann by 3 in New Poll, SSP Moves Race to “Tossup””

  1. This district is where I grew up, where I went to college, and where my family still lives (although pre-2000 I lived in MN-07).  These results make me giddy!

    Obviously SUSA couldn’t include the new GOP candidate who is running as a write-in candidate.  He won’t take many votes, but he’s from the far western end of the district, which also happens to be the most “red” area of the district, so if does take any, it will be from the area where Bachmann needs it most.

  2. Bachmann is still getting 79% of the Republican vote, though Tinklenberg is winning Independents by a 16-point margin, 51%-35%.

    Bachmann is still winning men, 48%-42%, but losing women by a larger margin to El, 53%-41%.  And in something that SurveyUSA seems to have done to all Minnesota races this year, Bachmann still attracts a substantial 44% of the 18-34 age group, with Tinklenberg getting 46% of them.  And they have El winning over seniors by a huge 56%-38% margin.

    So the age categories still make no freaking sense.

  4. If this story stays fresh for the next 11 days, El wins.  I had no doubt that he would be holding a lead today, so the only issue is how much staying power this story has.  Let’s hope we keep pushing it and questioning her effectiveness (or lack thereof) in Congress.  

  5. H/T to MyDD on this one: http://www.latimes.com/news/na…

    El has raised 1.3 million dollars in 6 days.  If you take the October quarter reports, we have

    Minnesota-06 (R+5) – – –  R2B

    Elwyn Tinklenberg v. Representative Michele Bachmann

    Total Raised — $1,002,000 v. $2,451,000

    Cash On Hand — $357,000 v. $1,368,000

    Now, if you add 1.3 million to both the Total raised and Cash on Hand column… Bachmann’s fundraising advantage is wiped out.  

    Minnesota-06 (R+5) – – –  R2B

    Elwyn Tinklenberg v. Representative Michele Bachmann

    Total Raised —- $2,302,000 v. $2,451,000

    Cash On Hand – $1,657,000 v. $1,368,000

  6. and i’m very good at the door:)  the great thing is that this comment is very typical so the tinklenburg campaign (actually the DCCC) can just play her “greatest hits” for a week and a half.

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