A thought occurred to me earlier that I wanted to share to get peoples’ views. Alaska’s polls close at 8 pm Alaska time, or 12 am on the East Coast (with the exception of the Aleutian Islands, which close at 1 am EST). If the presidential election looks like it is over early, say 9 pm EST, it will only be 5 pm in Alaska, three hours before just about all of the Last Frontier’s polls shut. Would this lead to many Democrats staying home, thereby saving Ted Stevens’ and Don Young’s butts?
Now, the networks will not be able to call the race until at least 11 pm EST. Why? Because California’s polls close at that time (8 pm on the West Coast), and Obama almost certainly cannot get to 270 before California’s 55 electoral votes are awarded to him. So, while it may be clear that Obama has won the whole thing — if say, he captures Virginia and North Carolina, which close at 7 pm and 7:30 pm EST — the networks not be able to actually declare the winner until he is at the 270 electoral vote plateau. Still, if it is clear that Obama has won, this could impact voters still heading to the polls in far away Alaska. (A big part will be how the network anchors and analysts are portraying the results, and if they will be presuming Obama is the winner before California comes in. My guess is that to be on the safe side, they will temper their official language until they are sure.)
I think the situation is unlikely also because many voters will be clamoring to get to the polls, but it is possible that the election will no longer be any doubt by 8 pm Alaska time. Indeed, unless we are all still waiting at midnight here on the East Coast, Alaskans will still be heading to the polls after the race has been called. Severely depressed resulting Democratic turnout may be the last saving grace that Ted and Don are praying for.
I posted this on my own blog, but I wanted the expert views of fellow SSPers. What are peoples’ thoughts? Am I missing anything?
I think it’s moot. I mean, if the winner is called early, it would be probably depress turnout no doubt. However, why does everyone think it will be only Dems who don’t show up? Are Republicans going to be running to the polls to cast their votes for a losing ticket? It doesn’t make any sense.
This earlier. I think it could depress turnout very, very slightly. But neither of these races look like they’ll be nail biters, so I don’t think it’ll impact the outcome.
Bottom line, I don’t think someone who is watching CNN, MSNBC, Fox News or whatever it is, I don’t think we need to worry about them not turning out. If your watching election results on the news you’ve probably been paying attention to the race and you’ve probably voted.
I think there are a lot of Alaskans committed to turning out Stevens and Young. Since they don’t expect Obama to win the state anyway, I don’t see why an early call would affect their numbers at all.
The election of 1980 was called while polls in the Pacific Time Zone were still open.
The unexpected defeat of a number of D incumbents in CA was blamed on this effect – it depressed D turnout.
If the parallel from 1980 holds true in Alaska, then R turnout would be depressed; Stevens and Young would go down to a larger defeat.