It’s official — Rahm Emanuel will sign on as Obama’s Chief of Staff (potentially a great move for Obama, in my opinion). While the timeline is unclear, Rahm will soon be stepping down from his seat in the House, triggering a special election. Rahm’s district has a PVI of D+18, so there’s no reason why we can’t fill this seat with a solid progressive.
This leads me to ask — where else might we see retirement (or resignation) announcements before the next election? Roy Blunt is stepping down as the House Minority Whip, and you have to wonder whether he’ll ride off into the sunset and quit politics altogether. And there are plenty of crusty GOP oldsters like Roscoe Bartlett (MD-06), Bill Young (FL-10), and Ralph Hall (TX-04) who may call it a day. And on the Dem side, Leonard Boswell will always be the subject of retirement rumors.
It’s never too early to start thinking ahead to the next round of elections. Which House seats do you think might open up in the next two years?
Since he’s stepping down from his leadership role.
We need to do as well defending our seats in 2010 as we did in 2008 and a solid DCCC chair will do it. We cannot have even half of a 1994 style wreck. As long as our vulnerable members dont make bad votes(ie 1994 tax increase, assault weapons ban), our guys should be OK.
henry brown in SC-1 will retire before the next election. he faced a primary challenger this year, and while he won overwhelmingly, I think his general election performance, along with the fact that many in the GOP in his district thought he was asleep at the wheel facing Ketner, will lead some to want to push him out. there will be an interesting in-fight among the GOP to replace him. look for state senator chip campsen (r-charleston), state senator luke rankin (r-horry), and state representative thad viers (r-horry) to fight it out on the republican side. on our side, who knows? we’ll have to see if ketner wants to pull a larry kissell and essentially continue her campaign for the next two years.
Putnam is stepping down. Maybe he’s running for Senate? He’s still pretty young and it seems like a odd thing to do.
Any ideas on who would run for Rahm’s seat?
Could see some House members go into the cabinent. Inslee, Solis and Jackson are a few contenders.
I’m hoping Kanjo steps down and I doubt he’d want another tough race.
I will almost guarantee he retires in 2010. It will be one of our best pickup opportunities if it happens. State Senator Charlie Justice would probably run on the Dem side.
I keep hearing Steve King (IA-05) may run for governor in 2010. I find that hard to believe, because I think Chet Culver would crush him, but Iowa Republicans believe Culver is going to be vulnerable in 2010, and King may want to take a shot.
Alternatively, Tom Latham (IA-04) may want to run for governor, but I think he likes his easy job in Washington.
Senator Chuck Grassley has previously said he would never retire, but if he develops a health issue or gets frustrated with being in the minority there is an outside chance he could retire. If he did, I bet Latham would run for his Senate seat. Tom Vilsack might run on the Democratic side, but only if Grassley retired.
You may see some Georgia Republican members step down to run for governor. Possibilities include John Linder (GA-07), Phil Gingrey (GA-11), and Jack Kingston (GA-01).
You also can’t forget Mike Castle (DE-AL).
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…
i mean if there looks like a GOP wave (which most of us expect), a republican in a tough race this year may assume he/she’ll have an easy race in 2010 and decide to run. on the other hand, if the GOP remains unpopular, a few more will head for the exits.
any thoughts on what happened in the 3 cuban seats? (Diaz-Balarts, Ros-Lehtinen)?
To run for governor, although after Smith lost Smith may also run as well and he would kick Walden’s ass in the GOP primary. That’s a deep red district unfortunately.
Blago could appoint a sitting congressman/woman to President Obama’s (love typing president obama!!!) soon to be vacant senate seat thus creating another illinois house vacancy.
any ideas who he’ll appoint?
any ideas who Minner will appoint to Biden’s vacant seat?
Our neighbors to the south don’t get enough attention, I think. SC-01 and SC-02 both had very good numbers for us this time. I remember thinking in the 90’s that SC-02 might be vulnerable. The one problem with that district: Lexington County, west of Columbia. It provides such monster GOP margins that it offsets the number of Democratic rural counties and the (apparently) moderating voters of Beaufort County.
I definitely hope Ketner keeps going and works harder in Myrtle Beach (Horry County) and we recruit a decent challenger in SC-02.
If Henry Waxman succeeds in taking the Chairmanship of the Energy and Commerce Committee from John Dingell who has been in the House since 1955, I would expect him to retire. Too bad Lynn Rivers didn’t defeat him in that primary back in 2002(?). He has done more to promote global climate change than perhaps any other living American Republican or Democrat.
He wasn’t challenged very strongly this time and still won by only 4%.
Young (FL-10) and Castle (DE-AL).
I’m not sure why John Shadegg just didn’t get it over with, but I’m sure he will retire. You hear me, Lord? Start fundraising now. I think AZ-03 could be a solid pick-up in a non-presidential year.
There are 12 Senators who are 75 or older. One way or another, Stevens is gone. That leaves 6 Democrats and 5 Republicans born during or before FDR’s fisrt year in office:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L…
Senator DOB Age
Robert Byrd (D-WV) November 20, 1917 (age 90)
Ted Stevens (R-AK) November 18, 1923 (age 84)
Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) January 23, 1924 (age 84)
Daniel Inouye (D-HI) September 7, 1924 (age 84)
Daniel Akaka (D-HI) September 11, 1924 (age 84)
Arlen Specter (R-PA) February 12, 1930 (age 78)
Jim Bunning (R-KY) October 23, 1931 (age 77)
Ted Kennedy (D-MA) February 22, 1932 (age 76)
Dick Lugar (R-IN) April 4, 1932 (age 76)
Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) June 22, 1933 (age 75)
Chuck Grassley (R-IA) September 17, 1933 (age 75)
Robert Foster Bennett (R-UT) September 18, 1933 (age 75)
http://www.startribune.com/pol…
Down to 337 votes.
is 78 and has served in Congress since 1985. He can’t like being buried in the minority again. This Greensboro-based district would not necessarily be competiitive if it came open, but NC is changing, so you never know.
She’s widely rumored to be running for governor in 2010 and will resign beforehand if she does so.
You think Murtha or Kanjorski might retire? And would that be better for us than them running again?
Heavily speculated to run against Bunning/for Bunning’s open seat. I worry about our ability to hold onto this seat.
I am quite sure that Ben Chandler in Kentucky will run for Senate. He ran for Governor before, so he obviously has statewide ambitions. He was recruited heavily to run against McConnell but ultimately took a pass; given that Bunning barely won re-election in the GOP-friendly ’04 year, I think Chandler figured that would be his best shot at a promotion.
Also, in IL-13, I would expect Rep. Judy Biggert (R) to retire. She is well into her 70s, and I heard rumors that the only reason she stayed is because the party begged her not to open up her R+4 Chicagoland district in a year with Obama possibly atop the ticket. Scott Harper, the 2008 candidate, held her to a 52%-43% margin, and I dont think she’ll care for another tough re-election campaign.
If not a Gubernatorial run then a Senate run IMHO. There is every chance he would get creamed in the Primary by a conservatice too 🙂
I wonder if he’ll challenge Teague to try and regain his old seat in 2010 after his disasterous run for Senate this year. Then again he is probably crazy enough to try and run statewide again, maybe for Governor in 2010. That would be nice. He’d lose big again if he tried that.
has already stated intentions to run for Governor of Tennessee in 2010. That makes him a near certainty to retire from the House in 2010.
And given Lincoln Davis is my least favorite Democrat in the House I wish him bad luck in any future electoral endeavors.