As we all know one of the reasons Obama won was that he kept the margins close in “red” districts while running up the score in “blue” districts.
Now we are seeing not only how true that is but what it means for 2010.
Courtsey of the Scorecard in Politico:
Connecticut numbers of Presidential vote by CD for McCain:
CT-01: John Larson (D) — 33%
CT-02: Joe Courtney (D) — 39%
CT-03: Rosa DeLauro (D) — 36%
CT-04: Jim Himes (D) — 40%
CT-05: Chris Murphy (D) — 42%
What this means is McCain ran 5-8 points behind Bush in CT 2,4,5 which seats that Democrats picked up in 06 and 08.
Himes won with by only 3% (51%-48%) which means Shays ran well ahead of McCain. This would seem to indicate that voters stuck with Shays who is a relative moderate and a long term incumbent.
The possibility of turning this seat safe while dependant on many factors over the next few years is very bright
And now the even better news….
One of the keys to Obama’s victory and Democrats reclaming the majority in congress was the ability to win in red states.
Virginia, a state which has been trending Blue since 2005 is a case in point and nothing shows this more than the vote by CD
VA-01: Rob Wittman (R) – 51% (60%)
VA-02: Glenn Nye (D) – 49% (58%)
VA-03: Bobby Scott (D) – 24% (33%)
VA-04: Randy Forbes (R) – 49% (57%)
VA-05: Tom Perriello? (D) – 51% (56%)
VA-06: Bob Goodlatte (R) – 57% (63%)
VA-07: Eric Cantor (R) – 53% (61%)
VA-08: Jim Moran (D) – 30% (35%)
VA-09: Rick Boucher (D) – 59% (59%)
VA-10: Frank Wolf (R) – 46% (55%)
VA-11: Gerry Connolly (D) – 42% (50%)
These numbers can be described(and have been) several factors
1.) Change in Demograhpic via migration
2.) Superior ground game
3.) Democrats at all levels were flush with money
4.) Huge increase in African American turnout
The results speak for themselves. McCain ran 8 points behind Bush in VA 11 which used to be Tom Davis’s district.
In VA 10 McCain ran 9 points behind Bush in a seat the Democrats should be targeting come 2010.
In VA 1,4,6 McCain also ran way behind Bush in 04 but still managed to win a majority.
So what does it mean?
I beleive it puts the exclamation point on the idea that Virigina is no longer a red state which is now in our camp.
I think we have a chance to pick up another seat or two(probably Wolfs) and hopefully get the House of Delegates back.
I don’t subscrube to the beleif that we will run the table or be able to unseat Cantor, Forbes or Whittman.
Those are still very conservative districts and it was a bad year for Republicans all around.
McCain won the same margin as Bush in VA 9 which is held by Democrat Rick Boucher. The closer margins were probably due to a higher turnout by African Americans but Whitman, Forbes and Cantor won with more then 57% of the vote which indicates that although we have made great progress there are limits to what we can do