Crowdsourcing Pres-by-CD: California Results

I got most of the results for California’s congressional districts right here. Breakdowns by county I have entered into a Google Spreadsheet. I’d greatly appreciate if anybody could find the results for the districts which I couldn’t find any data.

District Obama McCain Others 2008 % 2004 % 2000 % Missing Counties (if any)
CA-01
199,835
96,530
8,264
65.6/31.7
59.7/38.4
51.5/38.7
CA-02
125,291
161,636
7,041
42.6/55.0
36.6/62.0
33.2/60.9
CA-03
165,617
164,025
6,438
49.3/48.8
40.8/58.2
40.9/54.3
CA-04
167,604
206,385
8,368
43.8/54.0
37.4/61.3
35.7/58.8
CA-05
165,776
67,625
4,709
69.6/28.4
61.1/37.9
60.0/34.7
CA-06
253,087
73,345
6,802
76.0/22.0
70.3/28.1
61.9/30.1
CA-07
179,037
66,272
5,450
71.4/26.4
67.1/31.8
65.6/30.3
CA-08
266,210
38,665
7,519
85.2/12.4
84.2/14.0
76.6/14.7
CA-09
260,662
29,186
5,919
88.1/9.9
85.9/12.6
77.8/13.3
CA-10
204,138
104,624
6,972
64.7/33.1
58.5/40.4
54.7/40.9
CA-11
San Joaquin, Santa Clara
CA-12
214,850
69,029
5,213
74.3/23.9
71.5/27.2
66.4/28.4
CA-13
175,838
56,299
4,270
74.4/23.8
70.9/28.0
66.3/29.3
CA-14
Santa Clara
CA-15
Santa Clara
CA-16
Santa Clara
CA-17
171,180
61,163
4,932
72.1/25.8
65.6/33.0
59.6/32.9
CA-18
Fresno, Madera, San Joaquin
CA-19
Fresno, Madera
CA-20
Fresno
CA-21
Fresno
CA-22
110,910
172,792
5,879
38.3/59.7
31.0/67.9
32.1/64.2
CA-23
Ventura
CA-24
Ventura
CA-25
134,222
131,201
6,010
49.5/48.3
39.9/58.8
41.2/54.7
CA-26
149,249
137,329
5,885
51.0/47.0
43.7/55.1
43.3/52.5
CA-27
157,100
75,286
5,219
66.1/31.7
59.3/39.3
59.5/35.8
CA-28
147,958
42,815
3,492
76.2/22.0
71.0/27.9
72.0/23.6
CA-29
159,947
71,860
4,840
67.6/30.4
61.2/37.4
57.2/38.0
CA-30
242,022
95,869
5,710
70.4/27.9
66.1/32.8
67.6/27.6
CA-31
113,941
25,441
3,280
79.9/17.8
76.9/21.6
76.2/18.6
CA-32
119,726
52,356
3,557
68.2/29.8
62.3/36.6
65.8/30.8
CA-33
205,470
27,672
3,539
86.8/11.7
82.8/15.9
82.3/13.4
CA-34
106,695
33,056
3,023
74.7/23.2
68.8/29.8
71.5/25.5
CA-35
165,761
27,789
2,923
84.4/14.1
79.0/20.0
80.7/16.7
CA-36
176,924
92,105
5,754
64.4/33.5
59.0/39.6
56.4/38.2
CA-37
157,219
36,940
3,388
79.6/18.7
73.5/25.2
74.9/21.3
CA-38
130,092
48,599
3,846
71.3/26.6
65.3/33.6
69.3/27.6
CA-39
128,579
63,680
4,117
65.5/32.4
58.5/40.3
61.6/35.1
CA-40
114,025
125,066
5,456
46.6/51.1
38.4/60.2
40.3/55.7
CA-41
119,255
147,982
5,890
43.7/54.2
36.9/61.8
40.3/55.2
CA-42
128,474
152,256
5,529
44.9/53.2
36.9/62.0
38.5/58.3
CA-43
112,020
49,594
3,216
68.0/30.1
58.1/40.7
62.6/33.7
CA-44
133,535
131,003
5,169
49.5/48.6
39.9/59.0
43.5/52.7
CA-45
142,305
129,664
4,251
51.5/46.9
43.1/56.0
46.0/50.5
CA-46
145,393
150,937
6,921
47.9/49.8
41.6/56.9
41.2/54.1
CA-47
77,144
48,461
2,672
60.1/37.8
48.6/50.0
55.6/40.9
CA-48
163,063
160,584
7,091
49.3/48.6
40.4/58.3
39.1/57.2
CA-49
117,283
137,739
4,805
45.1/53.0
36.5/62.5
38.2/57.7
CA-50
172,962
158,845
5,616
51.3/47.1
43.9/55.2
42.0/53.3
CA-51
135,960
76,438
3,021
63.1/35.5
53.4/45.7
56.4/40.2
CA-52
135,848
161,332
4,827
45.0/53.4
37.7/61.4
39.0/56.6
CA-53
177,863
77,930
5,101
68.2/29.9
61.2/37.6
56.9/37.0

52 thoughts on “Crowdsourcing Pres-by-CD: California Results”

  1. So far, David Dreier represents a district carried by Obama and Buck McKeon and John Campbell represent districts where he got over 49%.  Several others like Lungren, Calvert and Bilbray promise to also be in more difficult shape.  Most of Dreier’s money is gone.  He looks very likely to follow in 2010 (everybody knows he’s gay so the ultra conservative voting is actually a drag).

    In 2000, Democrats won five California seats.  “Safe” redistricting becomes unsafe by the end of the decade.

  2. Did Obama really win that district? That’s the Newport Beach/Irvine district.

    That’s pretty amazing. When was the last time any Democrat won that district in a statewide race?  

  4. Thanks for sharing. A couple of weeks ago, David Wasserman of the Cook Political report sent us along a few CA CD totals, and by a quick glance they seem to match up very well with what you’ve done. One discrepancy between both of your numbers is the CA-28 GOP total. He had McCain winning 30,586 votes there, while you have it as 42,815 (the Obama totals match perfectly). Maybe this one is worth double-checking.

  5. Color code the district numbers to show the incumbent representative.  Bold, color, etc. the percentages to show which presidential candidate won.  This we, it becomes clearer where the juxtapositions are: which districts have Republican representatives but voted Democratic and vice-versa.

  6. I’m surprised McCain won Orange County at large if he lost CA-48, which I always thought was the reddest part of Orange County.

  7. Great analysis. I’m shocked at the totals in the 46th. Orange County was SO close this year to going blue. Four more years, it JUST might be ready. haha I think the conservative areas will form a new county though, the REAL Orange County. Just like the REAL Virginia. haha

  10. I’d have to call the Registrar of Voters for an Official Statement of Vote and pay a fee. Unfortunately, I am broke and unemployed, so I don’t know when or if I’ll get the Santa Clara results before the Secretary of State site has them up.

  11. I count six Repubicans who now represent Obama districts: 3rd, 25th, 26th, 44th, 48th, and 50th.  

  13. Gore wins it by 15, Kerry loses it narrowly, Obama wins it by 24.  Is that an error or does that district need a political Zoloft?

  14. I’m curious on how you guys think we can redistrict to maximize gains in California.  Right now, we have a 34-19 edge, but I think we can pick up 6 more seats with minimal redistricting.

    1. CA-3 and 4, combine the most Democratic areas of these districts to make a seat.  Toss in hard core minority precincts from CA-5 in as well.

    2. CA-24 and 25.  Make a Ventura County seat with some heavy Dem areas from CA-25 and from Santa Barbara.

    3. CA-26, this can easily be made Democratic by attaching Hispanic areas to its west.

    4. CA-44, 45: Combine the most heavily Democratic areas of Riverside in this district resulting in a decently Dem district, and maybe tossing in areas from CA-43.

    5. CA-46, 48.  There were some nice posts in the comments about the make up of Orange County politically.  It seems to me the best strategy would be to run a district right down the coast of Orange County, possibly adding areas of LA County and parts of Hispanic areas of CA-47.

    6. CA-50: This should be easy, just run a district to the border.

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