To go along with yesterday’s post, how about we all rank the 15 most vulnerable Republicans in the House? Remember, there are only 178 to choose from. (Enjoy saying that.)
79 thoughts on “House 2010: Most Vulnerable GOPers”
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To go along with yesterday’s post, how about we all rank the 15 most vulnerable Republicans in the House? Remember, there are only 178 to choose from. (Enjoy saying that.)
Comments are closed.
Now this is what I’ve been looking forward to! 😀
1. Joseph Cao (LA-02)
2. Dave Reichert (WA-08)
3. Ken Calvert (CA-44)
4. Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
5. Brian Bilbray (CA-50)
6. Dan Lungren (CA-03)
7. Leonard Lance (NJ-07)
8. Erik Paulson (MN-03)
9. Thad McCotter (MI-11)
10. Tom McClintock (CA-04)
11. Don Young (AK-AL)
12. Mark Kirk (IL-10)
13. David Dreier (CA-26)
14. Bill Cassidy (LA-06)
15. Christopher Lee (NY-26)
And unlike the 15 Dems, where only my top 3 are “Toss-up” as the rest are “Leans Democratic”, I’d say the top 8 Reeps are “Toss-up” while the rest are “Leans Republican”. Even if Lance & Paulsen had faced stronger challengers this year, they wouldn’t have won.
Rogers won 53-47 b/c he outspent Segall 2-1 (Segall raised over $1 million, made Red-to-Blue, but got no money from the dccc). Had the dccc kicked in, Rogers would have lost this last time. Now Segall gets 2 years to prepare…
Rogers is one of the few big Tom DeLay guys left in Congress. Also a contender for worst wig. You’ll notice they cut out his wig at the end of this ad (one of the sleaziest you’ll find, notice they accuse Segall of taking money from ActBlue!!): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
Henry Brown SC-1
Ripe for the picking
Joe Wilson SC-2
A lightweight that is still living in the ’80s
Diaz-Balert FL – ??
Diaz-Balert FL –
Already softened up, ready for a kill.
Most people have already said most of my “surprise ” picks. Anyway…
1. Joseph Cao (LA-02)
2. Don Young (AK-AL)
3. Ken Calvert (CA-44)
4. Thad McCotter (MI-11)
5. Dave Reichert (WA-08)
6. Dan Lungren (CA-03)
7. Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
8. Tom McClintock (CA-04)
9. Mike Rogers (AL-03)
10. Mark Kirk (IL-10)
11. Erik Paulsen (MN-03)
12. Brian Bilbray (CA-50)
13. Lee Terry (NE-02)
14. Henry Brown (SC-01)
15. Michele Bachmann (MN-06)
1.) Joesph Cao (LA-02)
2.) Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
3.) Ken Calvert (CA-44)
4.) Don Young (AK-AL)
5.) Dave Reichert (WA-08)
6.) Thad McCotter (MI-11)
7.) Tom Latham (IA
8.) Mike Rodgers (AL-03)
9.) Leonard Lance (NJ-07)
10.) Randy Forbes (VA-04)
11.) Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-09)
12.) Brett Guthrie (KY-02)
13.) Mark Kirk (IL-10)
14.) Paul Ryan (WI-01)
15.) Dan Lungren (CA-03)
I couldn’t come up with 15. Tough to even come up with 10, but here it is
Cao LA 6
Paulson MN 3
Gerlach PA 6
Cassidy LA 6
Young ALK
Lee NY 26
Reichert WA 8
McKlintock CA 4
Schmidt OH 2
Kirk IL 10
1. LA-02 (Joseph Cao)
2. CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
3. MN-03 (Erik Paulsen)
4. NY-03 (open, assuming Peter King runs for Senate)
5. NE-02 (Lee Terry)
6. WA-08 (Dave Reichert)
7. PA-06 (Jim Gerlach – jumps up to #2 if he runs for Governor)
8. IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
9. MI-11 (Thad McCotter)
10. OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)
11. CA-03 (Dan Lundgren)
12. MO-09 (Blaine Luetkemeyer)
13. KS-02 (Lynn Jenkins)
14. SC-01 (Henry Brown)
15. DE-AL (Mike Castle – jumps up to #2 if he retires)
Hard to imagine a majority of these flipping. I don’t think we have much room to grow in 2010.
1. Cao (LA-02)
2. Young (AK-AL)
3. Reichert (WA-08)
4. Calvert (CA-44)
5. Bilbray (CA-50)
6. McCotter (MI-11)
7. Rogers (MI-08)
8. Lungren (CA-03)
9. Dreier (CA-26)
10. Paulsen (MN-03)
11. McClintock (CA-04)
12. Kirk (IL-10)
13. Lee (NY-26)
14. Schmidt (OH-02)
15. Gerlach (PA-06)
1. Joe Cao, LA-2
2. Jim Gerlach, PA-6
3. Mark Kirk, IL-10
4. Thaddeus McCotter, MI-11
5. Peter King, NY-3
6. David Dreier, CA-26
7. Dave Reichert, WA-8
8. Mike Rogers, AL-3
9. Buck McKeon, CA-25
10. Judy Biggert, IL-13
11. Lynn Jenkins, KS
12. Ken Calvert, CA-44
13. John Shadegg,
AZ-3
14. Dana Rohrabacher, CA-46
15. Scott Garrett, NJ-5
Gerlach managed only 52% against a very weak opponent after consecutive 51% finishes.
Kirk had to run 16% ahead of McCain to win. Dan Seals looks great on the net but my guess is another Democrat will win kinda easy. Kirk may even run for the Senate to make things easier.
McCotter got 51% with Democrats concentrating on MI-7 and MI-9. He’s the closest to Detroit of any of the 7 survuving MI Republicans and has consistently run the weakest.
King’s running statewide. Without him, this district is Democratic.
As for Dreier, 53% in a district won by Obama and he’s been burning through money the last two cycles. Plus, as a gay, conservative Republican he’s a fish out of water. Otoh, he’s annually voted the best dressed in Congress. Just the ticket for a recession.
Reichert’s an effective politician but a lousy congressman. Like Shays this year, the time has come for this district. Darcy would have been a fine House member, too, but, alas, not from this district.
McKeon got 58% against Jacquise Conaway. Who? That’s the point. It’s no longer a favorable district for him and against somebody with a little money and experience it is a lot closer.
There’s so many others. Next 15:
TX-10 (McCaul), IA-4 (Latham). CA-50 (Bilbray), CA-3 (Lungren), CA-4 (McClintock), CA-45 (Bono Mack), Alaska At Large (Don Young), NJ-7 (Lance), NY-26 (Chris Lee), MD-6 (Barlett, who ran a feeble campaign in 2008), VA-10 (Wolfe), VA-4, NJ-2 (LoBiondo), OH-14 (LaTourette), WI-1 (Ryan), OH-7 (Austria).
And 20 more:
SC-1, SC-2, NC-5, NC-10, FL-16, FL-10, FL-15,CA-48, TX-7, MO-9, MO-6, DE, NV-2 (Heller), NE (Terry), PA-15, PA-16, PA-5, CA-52, LA-4,OH (Tiberi)
let alone second most vulnerable. No way is that close to reasonable.
The guy’s only fear now is geryymandering.
Superbly Vulnerable
Joseph Cao (LA-02)
Very Vulnerable
Thad McCotter (MI-11)
Erik Paulson (MN-03)
Frank LoBiondo(NJ-02)
Leonard Lance (NJ-07)
Christopher Lee (NY-26)
Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
Vulnerable
Dan Lungren (CA-03)
Ken Calvert (CA-44)
Mark Kirk (IL-10)
Tom Latham (IA-04)
Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-09)
Dean Heller (NV-02)
Charlie Dent (PA-15)
Dave Reichert (WA-08)
Vulnerable if incumbent retires
CA-26 – Dreier
CA-45 – Bono-Mack
DE-AL – Castle
FL-10 – Young
MT-AL – Rehberg
NY-03 – King
NY-23 – McHugh
OH-12 – Tiberi
VA-10 – Wolf
Really that competitive? Yeah Obama performed really well, but this is a traditionally GOP seat and you had a Dem candidate who, atleast on paper, was very attractive and Paulsen was able to pul it out. I’m sure Terri Bonoff will look at running, but I doubt a Paulsen-Bonoff race is a marquee race.
Also, a couple people mentioned WI-01 and Paul Ryan as a potentially competitive race. No offense to those who mentioned it, but I sure hope Van Hollen and the DCCC don’t agree with you. Because unless Ryan decides to run for Senate(very unlikely) or Governor(unlikely), this isn’t a winnable race.
So seriously, what does everyone think Cao’s best shot at getting re-elected is?
A. Staying as a republican
B. Switching to independent, caucusing with the Dems
C. Switching to Democrat
Guess I’d say “C” and voting solidly liberal on economic issues, moderate on social issues.
Either way his chances of getting re-elected are longshot at best. Only if Jefferson runs again and mucks things up again or in the case of some other fluke circumstance like another major hurricane can he hold on.
How vulnerable do you think that Washington’s 5th District Representative, Cathy McMorris Rogers is if a determined candidate actually ran against her?