Ya, Obama is really destroying the Democratic Party. Whatever. Illinois, New York and DEelaware are their golden opportunities?!? What is Cornyn smoking? “Big John” Cornyn deathwatch thread time?
Cornyn: Obama Helping Senate GOP in 2010
Sen. John Cornyn, the Texas Republican tasked with helping his party bounce back in the Senate, argued Wednesday that the Senate GOP has been inadvertently helped by Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats.
“President-elect Barack Obama has given us some opportunities,” said Cornyn.
Cornyn, the newly installed chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the GOP went from having no chance in Illinois to a fairly good one.
“I don’t see how Mr. Burris can separate himself from the circumstances of how he was appointed,” said Cornyn.
Cornyn did not name any specific Illinois Republicans who are planning to run for the Senate in 2010 but Rep. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., is considered a top contender.
In New York, Cornyn thinks Republicans could be helped if Gov. David Paterson appoints Carolyn Kennedy, a political novice, to replace Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., Obama’s nominee for Secretary of State.
“Caroline Kennedy has never run for office before,” said Cornyn.
Cornyn cited Rep. Peter King as a New York Republican seriously weighing a Senate bid now that Clinton is expected to become the nation’s top diplomat.
Cornyn is also eyeing Colorado where Obama’s selection of Ken Salazar to be Secretary of the Interior removes a seasoned politician from the seat.
Gov. Bill Ritter has chosen Michael Bennet, the well-regarded Superintendent of Denver public schools, as Salazar’s replacement.
The NRSC is also hoping to put Delaware, the home state of Vice President-elect Joe Biden, into play.
Democrat Beau Biden, the state attorney general and son of the vice president-elect, is expected to seek the seat which will be held for the next two years by Ted Kaufman, a former Biden staffer who agreed not to run in 2010.
The NRSC chair said Republicans have also been helped by Obama’s nomination of Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano to be Secretary of Homeland Security and former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack to be Secretary of Agriculture.
The appointments remove Napolitano as a possible challenger to Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Vilsack as a possible challenger to Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa.
Cornyn downplayed speculation that Grassley would be the next Senate Republican to retire by saying that the Iowa Republican has held eight fundraisers since the new year.
Cornyn, who was sporting a pair of black boots with his business suit, made his comments in Washington, D.C., during a pen-and-pad briefing with reporters.
I really cannot disagree with anything Cornyn said in the press release. Illinois, Colorado, Delaware, and New York are better shots for them now than if the incumbents had stayed, and they are among the R’s best 2010 pickup opportunities (along with NV). What Cornyn leaves unsaid, however, is that they’re still long odds for them and that the Rs have lots more seats that are much more vulnerable. But, it’s his job paint a rosy picture and I don’t begrudge him for some spin that’s well within the norm of both parties.
The only person they have to run there is Mike Castle and we would easily pick up his House seat if he left it.
All this seems to do is put three House seats into play (NY-3, IL-10 and DE-At Large). Three House seats for small chances. Go ahead. Squander a few more, Big John. Want to run Gerlach or something or Reichert?
He may be helping totip the scales towards Andrew Cuomo.
Although a couple people have already said they’d love to take Castle’s house seat. I don’t see him committing to anything for six years.
Lean Takeover (0 R, 0 D)
Toss-Up (4 R, 0 D)
Bunning (R-KY)
FL Open (Martinez, R)
MO Open (Bond, R)
OH Open (Voinovich, R)
Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (4 R, 2 D)
Burr (R-NC)
Gregg (R-NH)
Specter (R-PA)
Vitter (R-LA)
Bennet (D-CO)
Reid (D-NV)
Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)
Grassley (R-IA)
KS Open (Brownback, R)
Dorgan (D-ND)
Feingold (D-WI)
Currently Safe (9 R, 13 D)
Bennett (R-UT)
Coburn (R-OK)
Crapo (R-ID)
DeMint (R-SC)
Isakson (R-GA)
McCain (R-AZ)
Murkowski (R-AK)
Shelby (R-AL)
Thune (R-SD)
Bayh (D-IN)
Boxer (D-CA)
Burris (D-IL)
Dodd (D-CT)
Inouye (D-HI)
Kaufman (D-DE)
Leahy (D-VT)
Lincoln (D-AR)
Mikulski (D-MD)
Murray (D-WA)
Schumer (D-NY)
Wyden (D-OR)
NY Open (Clinton, D)
Pretty accurate summary for where things stand now although I’d probably bump Burris up to Clear or Narrow Advantage.
For real this time. LA (Vitter) and IL (Burris) should be leans hold rather than tossup in my view.
http://www.cookpolitical.com/c…
Republican seats:
Tossup:
FL – Open
KY – Bunning
LA – Vitter
MO – Open
OH – Open
Leans R:
KS – Open
PA – Specter
Likely R:
OK – Coburn
Democratic seats:
Tossup:
IL – Burris
Leans D:
CO – Bennet
Likely D:
NV – Reid
CA – Boxer
ND – Dorgan
WA – Murray
WI – Feingold
He almost beat Beau because he was the perfect opponent for him. He was an assistant US Attorney and veteran prosecutor with decades of experience to contrast to Biden’s.
That situation won’t be there for a US Senate race. Also, like I’ve said many times I think federal races are fundamentally different and less political than state and local races.
Probably has learned from the Dole/Ensign debacles of 2006 and 2008. Dole did about as bad of a job as any senator could have done (except for nuts like DeMint and Bunning). Ensign made the mistake to alluding that the Dems could possibly have a supermajority (his comment of him needing Chambliss to prevent this happening is priceless).
Truth of the matter is that the GOP dispayed little offense the last 2 cycles. I don’t even consider the Louisiana Senate race as part of their offense from how they supported/dissed Kennedy. They had a slim chance of picking up New Jersey both years, and they blew it. The Cardin/Steele race was polling close, but the strong Democratic tide plus the obvious Democratic strength in Maryland prevented a takeover.
Looking at the 2010 races, the GOP’s prospects are equally as dim. They could make a run for Colorado and Nevada, but both states will probably be pulled out by the Democrats. Illinois may also come into play, but I doubt if the GOP could pull that race off either. I considered North Dakota, but I doubt if Hoeven will want to risk defeat against Dorgan. If he ran, this seat would come into play, but I think Dorgan still has the upperhand.
In all honesty, I see the Dems picking up around 3 seats this cycle. GOP seats in play have to be Missouri, Ohio, Florida (although now a little less secure), Kentucky, and North Carolina. Pennsylvania and New Hampshire may lean Republican, but these states will require some Defense by the GOP. If Sebelius runs, I think Kansas is a tossup state (I consider this race to be similar to North Dakota, except for the fact that Brownback is retiring).