Hot on the heels of their hard-hitting ads against Republican Senators McConnell (KY), Collins (ME) and Sununu (NH), Americans United For Change is setting its sights on four Republican House incumbents: Heather Wilson (NM-01), Jim Walsh (NY-25), Dean Heller (NV-02), and Tim Johnson (IL-15):
AUFC picked an interesting mix of incumbents here. While Walsh and Wilson will be two huge Democratic targets next year, Johnson and Heller are completely out of left field. Raise your hands if you even knew that the Republicans had their own Tim Johnson. Yeah, I thought so.
As far as an “expanding the playing field” type of move, I remain skeptical that Heller’s district will come into play next year. At a PVI of R+8.2, the only reason this district was competitive last year was due to its open seat status, a feisty Republican primary, and Democrat Jill Derby’s strengths. I’m not anticipating that any of these factors will re-emerge in 2008, and I doubt that a top-shelf challenger will emerge. If I were in charge of these ad buys, I would have gone after Republican Jon Porter in nearby NV-03, whose D+1.0 district and out-of-the-mainstream views on Iraq make his district ripe for another aggressive challenge.
As for Johnson, his Illinois district went to Bush by 11 and 18 point margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively. I would be surprised if anything happened here, but at least Mr. Johnson will have to feel some deserved heat on Iraq. Hopefully his ass will get redistricted into oblivion in a few years.
UPDATE: AUFC is also going after Randy Kuhl (NY-29) and Mary Bono (CA-45).
I disagree with you that an attack on Tim Johnson is completely out of left field. Johnson won his first race (2000) with only 53% of the vote. Then, to their shame, Illinois Democrats accepted a redistricting plan that strengthened all incumbents of both parties, with the exception of the sacrificial lamb, David Phelps. The result of this was that Johnson majority in 2002 ballooned to 65%.
However, since then Johnson’s numbers have been going south. He won 61% in 2004 and 58% in 2006 in a race ignored by most observers. If his Democratic opponent gets some love from the DCCC and the netroots, this is a race that can be won.
One reason Johnson is in a shakier position than he might otherwise be is that he was one of the 15 Republicans who voted for the condemning-the-surge resolution but against the supplemental. Clearly he’s feeling a little pressure from both ends.