Now that I have some spare time, I can compare my predictions against the actual results from the presidential, governor, Senate, and competitive House races in 2008, and show the differences between the numbers. The difference is how much more Democratic/Republican my predictions are from the actual numbers. Some of my predictions were fairly accurate, while some were way off, due to lack of polling in the noncompetitive races (and I am not including the Arkansas Senate race due to no polling at all because Pryor was unopposed), and due to the difficulty of predicting some of the races, namely most House races, the Alaska races, and some other races due to huge third-party noise. Numbers are below the flip.
President (51) http://californianintexas.blog…
| Race |
My Prediction |
Actual Result |
Difference |
| AL-Pres |
R+21.14 |
R+21.58 |
D+0.44 |
| AK-Pres |
R+16.67 |
R+21.54 |
D+4.87 |
| AZ-Pres |
R+3.79 |
R+8.48 |
D+4.69 |
| AR-Pres |
R+7.64 |
R+19.85 |
D+12.21 |
| CA-Pres |
D+22.63 |
D+24.03 |
R+1.40 |
| CO-Pres |
D+5.82 |
D+8.95 |
R+3.13 |
| CT-Pres |
D+19.85 |
D+22.37 |
R+2.52 |
| DE-Pres |
D+22.40 |
D+25.00 |
R+2.60 |
| DC-Pres |
D+78.02 |
D+85.92 |
R+7.90 |
| FL-Pres |
D+2.15 |
D+2.81 |
R+0.66 |
| GA-Pres |
R+4.43 |
R+5.20 |
D+0.77 |
| HI-Pres |
D+29.32 |
D+45.26 |
R+15.94 |
| ID-Pres |
R+29.96 |
R+25.34 |
R+4.62 |
| IL-Pres |
D+21.18 |
D+25.13 |
R+3.95 |
| IN-Pres |
R+2.58 |
D+1.03 |
R+3.61 |
| IA-Pres |
D+12.51 |
D+9.53 |
D+2.98 |
| KS-Pres |
R+19.59 |
R+14.93 |
R+4.66 |
| KY-Pres |
R+13.93 |
R+16.22 |
D+2.29 |
| LA-Pres |
R+11.65 |
R+18.63 |
D+6.98 |
| ME-Pres |
D+14.73 |
D+17.32 |
R+2.59 |
| MD-Pres |
D+19.40 |
D+25.44 |
R+6.04 |
| MA-Pres |
D+22.79 |
D+25.81 |
R+3.02 |
| MI-Pres |
D+12.66 |
D+16.46 |
R+3.80 |
| MN-Pres |
D+11.84 |
D+10.24 |
D+1.60 |
| MS-Pres |
R+11.16 |
R+13.17 |
D+2.01 |
| MO-Pres |
R+0.50 |
R+0.13 |
R+0.37 |
| MT-Pres |
R+4.55 |
R+2.26 |
R+2.29 |
| NE-Pres |
R+22.51 |
R+14.93 |
D+7.58 |
| NV-Pres |
D+5.71 |
D+12.49 |
R+6.78 |
| NH-Pres |
D+10.20 |
D+9.61 |
D+0.59 |
| NJ-Pres |
D+16.74 |
D+15.54 |
D+1.20 |
| NM-Pres |
D+10.00 |
D+15.13 |
R+5.13 |
| NY-Pres |
D+27.10 |
D+26.69 |
D+0.41 |
| NC-Pres |
D+0.34 |
D+0.33 |
D+0.01 |
| ND-Pres |
R+10.58 |
R+8.60 |
R+1.98 |
| OH-Pres |
D+4.02 |
D+4.53 |
R+0.51 |
| OK-Pres |
R+26.31 |
R+31.29 |
D+4.98 |
| OR-Pres |
D+15.07 |
D+16.35 |
R+1.28 |
| PA-Pres |
D+7.21 |
D+10.32 |
R+3.11 |
| RI-Pres |
D+24.32 |
D+27.92 |
R+3.60 |
| SC-Pres |
R+9.62 |
R+8.98 |
R+0.64 |
| SD-Pres |
R+10.76 |
R+8.41 |
R+2.35 |
| TN-Pres |
R+11.89 |
R+15.07 |
R+3.18 |
| TX-Pres |
R+15.55 |
R+11.76 |
R+3.79 |
| UT-Pres |
R+28.78 |
R+28.07 |
R+0.71 |
| VT-Pres |
D+24.17 |
D+37.01 |
R+12.84 |
| VA-Pres |
D+4.12 |
D+6.30 |
R+2.18 |
| WA-Pres |
D+14.23 |
D+17.11 |
R+2.88 |
| WV-Pres |
R+7.67 |
R+13.11 |
D+5.44 |
| WI-Pres |
D+10.70 |
D+13.90 |
R+3.20 |
| WY-Pres |
R+26.20 |
R+32.24 |
D+6.04 |
Governor (11) http://californianintexas.blog…
| Race |
My Prediction |
Actual Result |
Difference |
| DE-Gov |
D+35.00 |
D+35.48 |
R+0.48 |
| IN-Gov |
R+16.33 |
R+17.81 |
D+1.48 |
| MO-Gov |
D+15.75 |
D+18.91 |
R+3.16 |
| MT-Gov |
D+22.00 |
D+32.95 |
R+10.95 |
| NH-Gov |
D+42.33 |
D+42.54 |
R+0.21 |
| NC-Gov |
D+1.00 |
D+3.40 |
R+2.40 |
| ND-Gov |
R+40.00 |
R+50.91 |
D+10.91 |
| UT-Gov |
R+58.50 |
R+57.95 |
R+0.55 |
| VT-Gov |
R+23.00 |
R+31.56 |
D+8.56 |
| WA-Gov |
D+4.00 |
D+6.48 |
R+2.48 |
| WV-Gov |
D+46.00 |
D+44.04 |
D+1.96 |
Senate (36) http://californianintexas.blog…
| Race |
My Prediction |
Actual Result |
Difference |
| AL-Sen |
R+33.00 |
R+26.84 |
R+6.16 |
| AK-Sen |
D+10.33 |
D+1.24 |
D+9.09 |
| CO-Sen |
D+10.86 |
D+10.30 |
D+0.56 |
| DE-Sen |
D+34.00 |
D+29.37 |
D+5.63 |
| GA-Sen |
R+4.86 |
R+2.92 |
R+1.94 |
| ID-Sen |
R+23.00 |
R+23.55 |
D+0.55 |
| IL-Sen |
D+28.00 |
D+39.31 |
R+11.31 |
| IA-Sen |
D+22.00 |
D+25.39 |
R+3.39 |
| KS-Sen |
R+27.00 |
R+23.60 |
R+3.40 |
| KY-Sen |
R+5.00 |
R+5.93 |
D+0.93 |
| LA-Sen |
D+10.00 |
D+6.39 |
D+3.61 |
| ME-Sen |
R+13.00 |
R+22.75 |
D+9.75 |
| MA-Sen |
D+30.50 |
D+34.93 |
R+4.43 |
| MI-Sen |
D+20.50 |
D+28.81 |
R+8.31 |
| MN-Sen |
R+1.00 |
D+0.01 |
R+1.01 |
| MS-Sen A |
R+27.00 |
R+22.87 |
R+4.13 |
| MS-Sen B |
R+9.00 |
R+10.00 |
D+1.00 |
| MT-Sen |
D+45.00 |
D+45.83 |
R+0.83 |
| NE-Sen |
R+14.00 |
R+17.46 |
D+3.46 |
| NH-Sen |
D+8.00 |
D+6.34 |
D+1.66 |
| NJ-Sen |
D+15.43 |
D+14.08 |
D+1.35 |
| NM-Sen |
D+15.50 |
D+22.66 |
R+7.16 |
| NC-Sen |
D+4.86 |
D+8.47 |
R+3.61 |
| OK-Sen |
R+18.00 |
R+17.50 |
R+0.50 |
| OR-Sen |
D+6.00 |
D+3.35 |
D+2.65 |
| RI-Sen |
D+52.00 |
D+46.81 |
D+5.19 |
| SC-Sen |
R+19.00 |
R+15.28 |
R+3.72 |
| SD-Sen |
D+25.00 |
D+24.98 |
D+0.02 |
| TN-Sen |
R+29.00 |
R+33.50 |
D+4.50 |
| TX-Sen |
R+8.00 |
R+11.98 |
D+3.98 |
| VA-Sen |
D+27.86 |
D+31.30 |
R+3.56 |
| WV-Sen |
D+21.00 |
D+27.43 |
R+6.43 |
| WY-Sen A |
R+27.00 |
R+51.38 |
D+24.38 |
| WY-Sen B |
R+25.00 |
R+46.99 |
D+21.99 |
House (76) http://californianintexas.blog…
| Race |
My Prediction |
Actual Result |
Difference |
| AL-02 |
D+0.7 |
D+0.5 |
D+0.2 |
| AL-05 |
D+2.5 |
D+3.6 |
R+0.9 |
| AK-AL |
D+7.3 |
R+5.1 |
D+12.4 |
| AZ-01 |
D+7.5 |
D+16.5 |
R+9.0 |
| AZ-03 |
R+8.1 |
R+12.0 |
D+3.9 |
| AZ-05 |
D+10.0 |
D+9.6 |
D+0.4 |
| AZ-08 |
D+11.3 |
D+11.9 |
R+0.6 |
| CA-03 |
R+12.5 |
R+5.5 |
R+7.0 |
| CA-04 |
D+2.4 |
R+0.6 |
D+3.0 |
| CA-11 |
D+2.4 |
D+10.6 |
R+8.2 |
| CA-46 |
R+12.5 |
R+9.5 |
R+3.0 |
| CA-50 |
R+10.0 |
R+5.1 |
R+4.9 |
| CO-04 |
D+4.9 |
D+12.3 |
R+7.4 |
| CT-04 |
D+1.7 |
D+4.3 |
R+2.6 |
| FL-08 |
D+5.9 |
D+4.0 |
D+1.9 |
| FL-13 |
R+12.3 |
R+18.0 |
D+5.7 |
| FL-16 |
R+18.9 |
R+20.2 |
D+1.3 |
| FL-18 |
R+13.3 |
R+15.8 |
D+2.5 |
| FL-21 |
R+1.8 |
R+15.8 |
D+14.0 |
| FL-24 |
D+13.1 |
D+16.1 |
R+3.0 |
| FL-25 |
R+3.6 |
R+6.2 |
D+2.6 |
| GA-08 |
D+4.2 |
D+14.4 |
R+10.2 |
| ID-01 |
D+2.7 |
D+1.2 |
D+1.5 |
| IL-10 |
D+2.7 |
R+9.0 |
D+11.7 |
| IL-11 |
D+9.0 |
D+13.9 |
R+4.9 |
| IL-14 |
D+9.1 |
D+14.8 |
R+5.7 |
| IN-09 |
D+13.5 |
D+19.4 |
R+5.9 |
| KS-02 |
D+4.4 |
R+4.4 |
D+8.8 |
| KS-03 |
D+11.8 |
D+16.8 |
R+5.0 |
| KY-02 |
R+2.8 |
R+5.2 |
D+2.4 |
| KY-03 |
D+13.6 |
D+18.8 |
R+5.2 |
| LA-04 |
D+2.5 |
R+0.4 |
D+2.9 |
| LA-06 |
D+9.1 |
R+7.8 |
R+16.9 |
| MD-01 |
R+2.0 |
D+0.8 |
R+2.8 |
| MI-07 |
D+3.1 |
D+2.3 |
D+0.8 |
| MI-09 |
D+2.4 |
D+9.5 |
R+7.1 |
| MN-03 |
D+0.4 |
R+7.6 |
D+8.0 |
| MN-06 |
D+1.9 |
R+3.0 |
D+4.9 |
| MS-01 |
D+9.5 |
D+10.6 |
R+1.1 |
| MO-06 |
R+13.4 |
R+22.5 |
D+9.1 |
| MO-09 |
R+4.1 |
R+2.5 |
R+1.6 |
| NE-02 |
R+2.9 |
R+3.8 |
D+0.9 |
| NV-02 |
R+7.4 |
R+10.4 |
D+3.0 |
| NV-03 |
D+1.6 |
D+5.1 |
R+3.5 |
| NH-01 |
D+3.9 |
D+5.9 |
R+2.0 |
| NJ-03 |
D+3.7 |
D+4.2 |
R+0.5 |
| NJ-05 |
R+9.1 |
R+13.5 |
D+4.4 |
| NJ-07 |
D+0.7 |
R+8.0 |
D+8.7 |
| NM-01 |
D+3.9 |
D+11.4 |
R+7.5 |
| NM-02 |
D+3.3 |
D+12.0 |
R+8.7 |
| NY-13 |
D+10.0 |
D+27.6 |
R+17.6 |
| NY-20 |
D+10.0 |
D+24.2 |
R+14.2 |
| NY-25 |
D+8.8 |
D+12.9 |
R+4.1 |
| NY-26 |
R+7.9 |
R+14.5 |
D+6.6 |
| NY-29 |
D+4.0 |
D+2.0 |
D+2.0 |
| NC-08 |
D+3.8 |
D+10.8 |
R+7.0 |
| OH-01 |
D+1.0 |
D+3.0 |
R+2.0 |
| OH-02 |
R+7.3 |
R+7.7 |
D+0.4 |
| OH-15 |
D+5.0 |
D+0.7 |
D+4.3 |
| OH-16 |
D+8.1 |
D+10.6 |
R+2.5 |
| OR-05 |
D+18.3 |
D+15.5 |
D+2.8 |
| PA-03 |
D+0.8 |
D+2.4 |
R+1.6 |
| PA-04 |
D+11.3 |
D+11.8 |
R+0.5 |
| PA-10 |
D+10.6 |
D+12.6 |
R+2.0 |
| PA-11 |
R+2.4 |
D+3.2 |
R+5.6 |
| PA-12 |
D+7.8 |
D+15.8 |
R+8.0 |
| SC-01 |
R+7.4 |
R+4.0 |
R+3.4 |
| TX-07 |
R+7.1 |
R+13.5 |
D+6.4 |
| TX-10 |
R+5.8 |
R+10.8 |
D+5.0 |
| TX-22 |
R+2.1 |
R+7.0 |
D+4.9 |
| VA-02 |
R+7.8 |
D+4.9 |
R+12.7 |
| VA-05 |
R+6.3 |
D+0.2 |
R+6.5 |
| VA-11 |
D+10.0 |
D+11.7 |
R+1.7 |
| WA-08 |
D+1.8 |
R+5.6 |
D+7.4 |
| WV-02 |
R+10.1 |
R+14.2 |
D+4.1 |
| WI-08 |
D+7.4 |
D+8.1 |
R+0.7 |
| WY-AL |
R+4.2 |
R+9.8 |
D+5.6 |
Indiana going for Obama really was the shocker. You were eeriely close on Missouri which I wrongly thought would keep its bellweather record. North Carolina! Just wow! 🙂