Quinnipiac (2/10-15, registered voters):
David Paterson (D-inc): 23
Andrew Cuomo (D): 55Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 24
Carolyn McCarthy (D): 34
(MoE: ±4.6%)David Paterson (D-inc): 43
Rudy Giuliani (R): 43Andrew Cuomo (D): 51
Rudy Giuliani (R): 37Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 42
Peter King (R): 26
(MoE: ±3%)
In the political chess game, David Paterson may have felt he was thinking ten moves ahead by picking Kirsten Gillibrand to fill the vacant Senate seat, by picking a young, charismatic woman with monster fundraising capacities who may well be holding the seat 40 years from now. However, it’s starting to look like, in doing so, he wasn’t thinking two moves ahead… as Quinnipiac now shows both Paterson and Gillibrand highly vulnerable in the 2010 primary. Picking Andrew Cuomo to fill the Senate seat would have killed two birds with one stone in the short-term for Paterson (get a Senator who’s known statewide and ready to stand on his own, and give his electoral archrival something to do other than challenge him in the 2010 election). Instead, he gambled on long-term dividends, and it’s possible neither he nor Gillibrand will be around to enjoy them.
The Gillibrand/McCarthy numbers seem likely to evolve over time, as 39% remain undecided. And both candidates seem largely unknown outside their respective corners of the state; Gillibrand’s favorables are 24/9 with 65% “haven’t heard enough,” (and 81% “haven’t heard enough” in the NYC Suburbs) while McCarthy’s are also 24/9, with 66% “haven’t heard enough” (with 88% “haven’t heard enough” upstate). An uncontroversial two years for Gillibrand, combined with tacking left on guns and immigration issues, should bring her numbers up (although revelations like the one today that she keeps two guns under her bed can’t be helping matters). Gillibrand has little trouble disposing of Rep. Peter King in the general (there’s no polling of an all-LI slugfest between King and McCarthy).
Paterson, however, trails Cuomo by a 2-1 margin, and, unlike Gillibrand, everyone knows who he is. His favorables are a fairly grim 41/35, while Cuomo clocks in at 63/15. Cuomo also dominates a hypothetical matchup against Rudy Giuliani while Paterson only ties him. Much of this does, in fact, seem to be blowback from the senator selection process. Paterson gets a mark of 35/52 for approval/disapproval of how he handled the process, down from 44/42 from last month. We may be looking at a truly epic miscalculation from Paterson here, one for the history books.
How did he survive so long in politics with such a poor sense of political shrewdness?
you’re not going to see a governor Cuomo blogging on dailykos. Paterson really struck me as a good guy, it’s too bad that of all things a senatorial appointment is killing his career.
Gillibrand was perfect for the Republicans leaning NY-20, but a complete mismatch for the state as a whole. People are very upset with him and because of this he and Gillibrand will likely lose their primaries. Is there any chance that Gillibrand can drop out of the Senate race and run for her House seat again? Because if she stays in the Senate race, her career is about to hit an iceberg.
I want to see McCarthy go down and hard. Upstate finally has some say in overall state politics rather then just the city or long island. I just hope that if McCarthy goes down in the senate race that she will also get out of the house.
about; she’s just got really low name recognition. So long as she moderates herself in Congress effectively, combined with the huge amounts of available cash, I can’t see her having difficulty in the primary (that’s assuming McCarthy goes through with it, which I kind of doubt).
Paterson, though, should be vewy vewy worried.
and then finished off this ignominous period by trashing caroline kennedy. i think the gillibrand pick is not a terrible one, but the “process” used to get there could not have been worse.
and yes he survived a long time in politics, but i doubt he had a serious race in his entire career. the spotlight on as NY Guv is very very bright.
i still think gillibrand may not even face a primary.
That simple. Bush had a social security privatization fight that united and embolded Democrats only to have his other mistake, the Iraq war, give Democrats a window of opportunity.
He really fumbled the ball on the appointment, then he got tackled over his budget proposal.
shouldnt have gotten in bed with Bush’s WH press folks… who we all know now were the ones behind torpedoing Caroline.
Wonderful to see Paterson’s numbers. Even better to see Gillibrand. Her blue dogism is totally out of step with the base of the Democratic party. In an one-on-one race against either McCarthy or Maloney, she will lose. And deservedly so.