How many times have you heard someone say, “Well, if the two (or three, or four) big established politicians beat each other up in the primary, Lesser Known Candidate Z could sneak through”? Certainly I’ve seen this kind of speculation far more often than it actually happens. Alice Kryzan’s win over Jon Powers and Crazy Jack Davis in NY-26 was quite the shocker – there must be a dozen (if not 50) Tom Geoghegans for every Kryzan.
But it’s obviously happened in the past, and it’ll occasionally happen in the future. So I’m asking the SSP brain trust to dig deep into the memory banks and tell us about any other “sneak through” primary winners you’re aware of. I’m sure there are some good stories out there, so let’s hear `em.
Senator Alan Dixon would have been easily re-elected in 1992 — if he had not voted to confirm Clarence Thomas for the Supreme Court. Carol Mosley Braun challenged him, as did some guy whose name I don’t remember, but this third guy had a ton of money to run basically an exclusive anti-Dixon campaign. Those two went after each other, and she snuck through.
I’ve read that most campaign consultants hate multi-candidate fields, because the payoffs for going negative are less easily realized.
This is the first one that comes to my mind. Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt beating each other up to the extent that Kerry (and Edwards) finished ahead of them. This propelled Kerry towards the nomination, and the rest is history.
Illinois Senate Democratic Primary 2004 – Hynes and Hull blew each other up did they not?
Won the primary in 1992 against a congressman and a rich lawyer who both ran nasty campaigns and bloodied each other up.
This is really testing my memory (OK knowledge — I was alive but not old enough to remember it!), but in the mid-70s Ed Koch beat out Bella Abzug and Mario Cuomo and others to win the Democratic nomination for Mayor of New York City as a very conservative Democrat.
Millionaires Jane Harman and Al Checchi beat each other so badly in the primary Gray Davis sneak through.
Bob Corker came from last place to beat out the better known Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary in their Tennessee Senate Primary in 2006.
And then last year in LA-4 and PA-5 the eventual winners were not expected if I remember correctly.
in his Senate primary?
Alan Grayson in FL-08. Most Central Florida observers (myself included) thought it was a forgone conclusion one of the established candidates (Charlie Stuart or Mike Smith) would win the FL-08 Democratic primary last year. All of the Central Florida power brokers were behind Stuart or Smith.
I myself in so many words called a poster on this website an idiot for thinking Grayson has a snowballs chance. Man was I wrong. Turned out Grayson’s slick and quirky campaign commercials had their effect more than anyone imagined and he easily won the primary by a 21 point margin over Stuart.
The same strategy that won him the primary in an upset also worked wonders for the general election against Keller.
Abraham Lincoln getting the 1860 Republican nomination for President. William Seward was supposed to be a lock for it, and if not him Salmon Chase, or maybe Simon Cameron or Edwin Bates. But there were problems with each of these guys (and Seward and Chase hated each other). Lincoln’s convention managers just sort-of laid back, made their guy “everyone’s potential second choice” — and thank God for America it all worked out the way it did.
1996 Texas U.S. Senate Democratic primary.
Beat out two sitting congressmen (one a 7-termer, one a 6-termer) in the primary and beat one in the runoff. Spent about $8000 to win the primary.
Was famous for his white pickup truck commercials.
She ran as the outsider to Governor Frank Murkowski (19%) and John Binkley (30%) in winning the Republican nomination for Governor in 2006.
Carol Shea Porter was the definite underdog in a three person race but NH House Speaker Jim Craig was the heavy favorite.
Two others at least in general elections: Jesse Ventura clearly pulled that strategy in beating Norm Coleman and Hubert Humphrey III for Governor in 1998. James Buckley did the same in being elected US Senator from NY beating Goodell and Ottinger.
There was a famous cartoon about the 1940 Democratic Senate primary in Missouri comparing Harry Truman to a little toy about to be overrun by two giant locomotives. Since Truman was the incumbent that may be overstating it but he was nominated on less than $10,000 against a millionaire governor (Stark) and some other guy also well known and well funded.
Lincoln, Obama(04) and Feingold.
1961 Texas Senate Special Election. This was to replace LBJ. The appointed senator was felt by Texas liberals to be more conservative than the Republican running at that time, his name was John Tower. A lot of libs supported Tower thinking he would be easier to beat in a subsequent election. Well we all know how that turned out. Tower was senator for 24 years.
Wasn’t Michael Nutter a classic story with congressmen Brady and Fattah big favorites at first? He won the primary with 37% getting the endorsement of all the newspapers.
A campaign I was deeply involved with helping Democrat James Marlow in a campaign with 9 other candidates. Marlow was the top Democrat and State Senator Jim Whitehead was the top Republican. Both were expected to make it to the runoff but bat shit crazy Paul Broun came out of nowhere to secure second place by 198 votes putting him in a runoff with Whitehead who had received 43.51 percent. In the runoff, Whitehead suffered a shocking defeat losing by only 394 votes to now Congressman Paul Broun. I’m getting really angry writing this, James is the best politician I’ve every worked for and it’s a real shame what happened.
Check it out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G…
No one liked him, and he still won the 2006 primary.
Didn’t Jean Schmidt also go through similar circumstances in her first primary? Possibly Bachmann too?
When Congressman Joseph Kenennedy III retired in 1998, the free-for-all included just about every Democrat in the district.
The heavy favorite was former Boston Mayor/Ambassador to the Vatican Ray Flynn. The Boston Globe endorsed former state legislator George Bachrach. Also in the race were millionare/future LG nominee Chris Gabrielli, former LG nominee Marjorie Clapprood, millionaire John O’Connor, Boston city councilman Tom Keane, Boston city councilman Charles Yancey, former state legislator Susan Tracy, and activist Alex Rodriguez (this was before his namesake went to the Yankees, so that name was not so reviled in MA back then).
To the surprise of most, the primary was won by Somerville Mayor Michael Capuano, with about 24%.
Has someone here mentioned Bob Kelleher’s surprising come from behind victory against two more well known names and then getting his butt handed to him by Max Baucus in the general?
She was the least-known candidate but beat Kyle Foust by 19%, which was, as noted on wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K… an unexpectedly large margin. But was the win itself unexpected (I recall it was)? Were there other primary competitors as well?
And the emergence of Obama in Iowa?