Sneak on Through… to the Other Side…

How many times have you heard someone say, “Well, if the two (or three, or four) big established politicians beat each other up in the primary, Lesser Known Candidate Z could sneak through”? Certainly I’ve seen this kind of speculation far more often than it actually happens. Alice Kryzan’s win over Jon Powers and Crazy Jack Davis in NY-26 was quite the shocker – there must be a dozen (if not 50) Tom Geoghegans for every Kryzan.

But it’s obviously happened in the past, and it’ll occasionally happen in the future. So I’m asking the SSP brain trust to dig deep into the memory banks and tell us about any other “sneak through” primary winners you’re aware of. I’m sure there are some good stories out there, so let’s hear `em.

NY-26: Federal Judge Issues Restraining Order re WFP Line

This is starting to get a bit nuts. To recap:

1) Way back when, New York’s Working Families Party gave its ballot line to Jon Powers for the NY-26 congressional race.

2) Powers lost the Democratic primary to Alice Kryzan, but due to election laws had to remain on the WFP line unless he died, was nominated for a judgeship, or moved out of state. He accepted employment in DC and moved there, thus theoretically freeing up his line.

3) However, the state GOP sued, and a trial court-level state judge agreed that Powers had to stay on the line.

4) Dems appealed, and New York’s intermediate appellate court reversed the first judge, saying that Powers’s name should be removed from the WFP line and that Kryzan’s could be added.

5) Republicans then sought to take the case to NY’s highest-level appellate court, the Court of Appeals, but Chief Judge Judith Kaye declined to hear the matter.

6) So in a desperate last-second move, the GOP sued in federal court, seeking a restraining order to prevent Kryzan from getting on the WFP line. The judge granted the order late last night.

Kyrzan’s people say they plan on appealing this decision to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. With the election just days away, hopefully this newest decision will also be overturned. Stay tuned.

NY-26: Judges to Davis: Scram!

The law has spoken:

A State Supreme Court justice Thursday rejected congressional candidate Jack Davis’ attempt to remain on the November ballot, ending his third attempt to win the job. […]

Justice Richard M. Platkin of Albany disagreed with Davis’ contention that his petition to form a minor party line called Save Jobs and Farms should have been accepted even though he failed to file a certificate of acceptance on time, as required by state election law.

Davis argued that the state Board of Elections should have provided him an opportunity to submit the late application anyway and that the board acted “arbitrarily and capriciously” in not allowing him to file.

The judge ruled otherwise.

“The court concludes that this case is governed by myriad authorities holding that the failure to timely file a certificate of acceptance is a fatal defect that cannot be cured or excused,” Platkin wrote.

Davis left a voicemail with Democrat Alice Kryzan yesterday to congratulate her on her primary win, but would not commit to helping her campaign — because he doesn’t think that she “understands” his anti-trade message.

Also non-committal is Jon Powers, who has yet to either endorse Kryzan or confirm whether or not he’ll be actively campaigning as the Working Families Party candidate. This is getting pretty lame.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

(H/T: The Albany Project)

NY-26: What Happened In The 26th Congressional District?

I was at the Primary Night watch party for Jon Powers on Tuesday. Every TV crew from Buffalo and Rochester showed up. One of the crews was setting up a microphone and we had to get out of the way. Only a few minutes later, the same crew came back to get their mic.

Within minutes, the TV crews were gone.

In the two days since Alice Kryzan topped the polls for a primary win over Powers and Jack Davis, I’ve been looking for some sort of metaphor that would best describe this situation.

How about the tortoise and two hares?

I live in NY-26 and supported Jon Powers ever since I met him and interviewed him on July 8, 2007. Powers had the momentum going. He was picking up endorsement after endorsement. The first four county Democratic committees to endorse Powers were all four of the rural counties in the district: Genesee, Livingston, Orleans and Wyoming. Then Niagara endorsed and Monroe followed. Erie became the last to endorse Powers, giving Powers every county Democratic committee in the district.

So how did he lose? How could he have the support from virtually everyone – local Democrats, DCCC, “grassrooters” in the district, the netroots and others – and lose?

The answer below the fold.

On June 1, The Buffalo News came out with an article (it is archived now, so no link is available) that featured a talking point that would be used against Powers from that moment on. Rick Snowden, the owner of a prominent local strip club called Rick’s Tally Ho, had given money to Powers’ campaign. Snowden gave Powers $2,300 spread across four contributions. The Davis campaign was the one who initiated this smear and used the Davis campaign’s “Women for Davis” chairperson to say that Snowden’s “sweat money” had no place in Democratic politics.

However, Snowden has given to other Democrats, namely Rep. Brian Higgins from NY-27 and a certain junior senator from New York named Hillary Clinton. Clinton also received money from Snowden during her presidential run this year.

That smear of Powers was weak though. People in Western New York know Rick Snowden. He might be a strip club owner, but he has given to many charitable causes and helped many organizations out with a donation and support.

Then came the smear that was started by Davis, being held in the back pockets of the Republicans and utilized by Kryzan in a campaign ad. That smear was that Powers stole money from the organization he started, War Kids Relief. The truth was that he made only $15,000 from WKR, not $77,000 as the Davis campaign alleged and he did not steal the money as both the Davis and Kryzan campaigns stated in their television ads. Overall, he raised $135,000 for WKR, meaning that $120,000 went for the kids, not Powers.

The WKR smear was the worst. What Davis did and Kryzan jumped on the bandwagon (along with some conservative bloggers and all seven county Republican chairs) amounted to a character assassination of Powers. The Snowden thing was meant to appeal to one segment of the voting population: Women. Whether that worked or not is up in the air. But there is no question that the WKR attacks, which were repeated throughout the last month of the campaign, hurt Powers immensely. The initial article in The Buffalo News that hit Powers with this smear calling Powers and WKR “more hype than help” did some considerable damage to Powers. A lesson learned from this is that something like this, whether true or false, can have a damaging impact on a campaign. Especially when that smear happened just over a month before Primary Day.

Davis and his campaign made it their job over the last three months to keep cutting Powers off at the knees. Kryzan didn’t go nearly as far as Davis did, but she still engaged in the same WKR smear.

Powers hit Davis on the issue of bribery, which involved payments to the wives of the Erie and Monroe County Independence Party chairs. Davis eventually apologized for the payments. Powers did dedicate a TV ad to the bribery claim. Whether or not that had an impact on Davis’ failures remains to be seen. Davis wasn’t too well received in this primary to begin with and the final numbers prove that.

Now, Kryzan’s strategy worked for her. An article in the Buffalo News by Jerry Zremski tells us that Kryzan focused mostly on Erie, Monroe and Niagara counties (all three of which she won) and now must focus her attention on winning over voters in the four rural counties – all of which went for Powers.

There is another article today about Kryzan’s now famous “take it somewhere else” ad. I’m not going to drool all over this like some bloggers and reporters have. I don’t think the ad was what did it for Kryzan. She focused on the main counties (all three of the counties she won account for a majority of the Democrats in the district) and won. She also benefited from the tremendous attacks levied against Powers. A lot of people, including those in the media and other on-lookers, have said that Powers and Davis engaged in back-and-forths and negative campaigning. Davis all but admitted on Tuesday night that he ran a strictly negative campaign. Powers, on the other hand, did not engage in such tactics all the time as some would make you believe. Powers went after Davis for his Big Oil and energy investments – something that was factual in nature. In hindsight, perhaps they should have ignored Davis. But I think a millionaire in the race would have made any candidate worry. And that’s what happened in this case.

In no way do I want to diminish Kryzan’s win. But this was a case of a tortoise and two hares. Powers and Davis were moving at great speeds to go after one another. Meanwhile, Kryzan was quiet. Too quiet. She sat back on the sidelines and people really didn’t acknowledge her. I contend that it still didn’t help her (she has a lot to do in the predominantly Republican counties and still plenty to do in the other parts of the district) but it at least kept her out of the mudslinging. The dirty work was already done for her. In her only TV ad that hit both candidates, she used the WKR thing against Powers and the bribery issue against Davis. By that time those issues were already out in the open.

Kryzan made for a great primary election candidate. However, it will be interesting to see what kind of general election candidate she turns into. Powers certainly had progressive bona fides, but he also could appeal to moderates and Republicans. In Kryzan’s case, she will need to do the same.

What does this mean for this race? I think the race rating most have given NY-26 (leans Republican) should stand. The downside to Kryzan staying out of the limelight for as long as she did was that most voters (58 percent of Democrats who voted for Davis or Powers) along with moderates and Republicans don’t know about her. On the surface, she has a lot of upside. She is a progressive Democrat on the issues we do know. She still needs to show that she is a versatile candidate who attract the moderates and conservatives. If she doesn’t, she loses. This is how this district works.

Here are a few final points:

On Powers: I don’t see Powers actively campaigning on the Working Families Party line. I think he will let this go and then run again down the road. The future is bright for him. Sometimes we have to take our lumps and learn. Powers will do that and move forward and be better for it. He will be back. That I can assure you.

On Davis: This was the end of his political “career”, if you can call it that. He spent $1.5 million and in the last three months of the campaign smeared Powers only to come in a distant third. He might say “stay tuned” but the only thing we are staying tuned in for is the end of his political running. In three runs, he failed all three times. This time he failed badly. He is done. If he runs again, he will be laughed at endlessly.

On Kryzan: The primary was a good start. But she has a long road to go. Chris Lee has carried out a Jon Powers-style campaign thus far. Lee will be very formidable for Kryzan. She needs to appeal to rural voters, moderate and conservative voters and the other Democrats who voted for Powers and Davis. This isn’t optional for her. It’s mandatory.  

NY-26: WFP Backs Kryzan; Powers Should, Too

I’m as surprised as anyone about Alice Kryzan‘s upset win in NY-26, but while this is an uphill fight, we definitely still have a chance here. The only way we can do this, though, is if Democrats at all levels come together to support our nominee. The DCCC immediately jumped on board, and the Working Families Party has already pledged to back Kryzan despite the ballot situation, saying that they “play to win.” But Jon Powers for some reason has not:

As we are still on the ballot as the nominee for the Working Families Party, my family and team are currently deciding how best to proceed.

If Crazy Jack Davis had won the primary, Powers might have had a shadow of chance running on the WFP line. But with Kryzan on the ticket, Powers can only play spoiler. For a likeable, young guy with a bright future in politics, anything less than a full-throated endorsement would be an error.

According to the New York Times, there are only three ways a candidate can remove himself from the ballot: die, move out of state, or get nominated for a judgeship. Theoretically, that last avenue is still possible, but Powers isn’t an attorney, and I wouldn’t ask him to submit to something so ridiculous. (Though the corrupt schmucks who run New York’s judicial “elections” would probably go along with such a scheme – after all, Supreme Jerkward Antonin Scalia ruled just this year that the “smoke-filled rooms” which rule this process “have long been an accepted manner of selecting party candidates.”)

Anyhow, this obstacle is why it’s crucial for Powers to come out strongly for Kryzan right away – votes on the WFP line can only hurt us now. Even the WFP itself acknowledges that. I supported Jon Powers in the primary, and I know he’s already done a lot for the Democratic Party. This is the last thing I’d ask him to do this cycle. We can win this, but we’ve all got to do it together.

UPDATE: This Roll Call piece suggests that EMILY’s List may soon get involved.

NY-26: DCCC Adds Kryzan to Red to Blue

From the DCCC Press:

Following her victory in the Democratic Primary in New York’s 26th Congressional District, Alice Kryzan has immediately been added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program for open seats. Alice Kryzan earned a spot in the competitive program by establishing significant local support and skillfully showing New York’s voters that she stands for change and will represent new priorities.

“Congratulations to Alice Kryzan on her primary victory,” said DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen. “Alice Kryzan is a strong leader who will fight to make college and health care more affordable, and lower gas prices. Alice Kryzan will be a formidable candidate in the general election. With 55 days left to make her case to the voters of the 26th district, the Red to Blue program will give Alice the financial and structural edge to be even more competitive.”

The DCCC has also released a viability memo on this race, indicating that they still consider this one very much on the big board of opportunities. I wonder if EMILY’s List will decide to make a bit of penance for its embarrassing support of Nikki Tinker against Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen earlier this summer by throwing their fundraising support to Kryzan. Might be a good idea for them.

Many have asked if Jon Powers can remove himself from the Working Families line on the November ballot. The short answer? He can’t. But if he endorses and campaigns for Kryzan, his votes should be minimal.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

NY-26: Clusterfudge Primary Gets Nuttier

With the ongoing meltdown in NY-13 in spectacular display, it’s easy to forget that there are at least three other GOP-held House seats in New York that are on the chopping block this year. In NY-26 (the seat being vacated by ex-NRCC chair/Mark Foley enabler Tom Reynolds), however, we have a crowded primary to get through before focusing our fire on the Republican, and that primary just got more crowded.

Erie County Legislator (a position equivalent to county council or county commission in most states) Kathy Konst has announced her intention to officially announce her campaign for this seat later this week. Designating petitions to get on the ballot begin circulating this week, so she’s a little late to the game, but she’s committed to spending at least $100,000 of her own funds on the primary.

“I’m beyond the exploration stage of this,” she said. “I’ll be making the decision shortly.”

There are already three candidates on the Democratic side of this primary. Jon Powers is a substitute teacher and Iraq War veteran who has already secured the endorsement of the local Democratic committees in all of NY-26’s counties and enjoys netroots backing (although I noted Matt Stoller voicing some misgivings about Powers last week).

Jack Davis was the 2006 candidate, and was basically responsible for wresting defeat from the jaws of victory against the scandal-plagued Reynolds with a tepid campaign that focused almost exclusively on trade issues and those damn kids who are always on his lawn. (Davis is in the news these days for his legal quest to overturn the “millionaire’s amendment,” in order to bring his plan to spend $3 million of his own money to win the primary to fruition.) No word on whether he plans to seek cross-endorsement from the Crazy Old Man Party this cycle. The other candidate, Alice Kryzan, is an environmental lawyer, which sounds good until you realize that she was an environmental lawyer on the side of the polluters in the Love Canal disaster.

I don’t know of anything to suggest where Konst falls in the liberal/conservative spectrum; the Buffalo News says she’s “proud of her independent reputation,” but, geez, everyone from Bernie Sanders to David Duke is proud of his independent reputation. Another question might be from whom she’ll draw votes: she’s the only elected official in the race, so she has that base of support to draw on, but the other three candidates are all also from nearby towns in the Buffalo suburbs portion of the district (she’s from Lancaster, Powers and Davis are from Clarence, and Kryzan is from Amherst), even though this district encompasses a lot of rural terrain and Rochester suburbs as well. She and Kryzan might well split the “women’s” vote, but I’m more worried about Powers and Konst splitting the “party establishment” and/or “sane” vote, allowing one of the other ones to slip through. Hopefully some polls soon will provide some clarity to this situation.

On the Republican side, Rothenberg is reporting that Iraq war vet David Bellavia will be dropping out of the race soon. This allows a clear path to the nomination for businessman Chris Lee.

NY-26: A great week for the Powers campaign

NY-26 Democratic candidate Jon Powers had a great week in his race for Republican Rep. Tom Reynolds’ House seat.

It all started with a fundraiser in Buffalo. Rep. Steve Israel from New York’s 2nd District attended the fundraiser to show his strong support for Powers.

Israel touted Jon’s military record, as well as his message of leadership by example. Following Israel, Powers spoke about the concerns of Western New Yorkers. Powers said that WNYers’ first concern is jobs. The second concern is jobs and probably the third is jobs as well. The jobs issue is an important one for people in the 26th district.  

But the week was far from over for Jon. Wednesday night, just hours after Rep. Israel’s support, Jon received the Livingston County Democratic Committee’s endorsement. At their committee meeting, the Livingston County Dems heard from not only Jon, but Alice Kryzan as well. After listening to both candidates message, the Livingston County Dems overwhelmingly endorsed Jon in his run to unseat Reynolds.

It was the third county Democratic endorsement Jon has received. Previously, the Orleans County Dems endorsed Jon and the Genesee County Democratic Committee was the first to endorse Jon. He’s also received endorsements from Sen. Bob Kerrey and Gen. Wesley Clark.

Speaking of Orleans County, Jon came to Orleans County for a house party on Sunday. (Note: I’m from Orleans County.) That was a great event and just from the feeling I got from everyone (about 35-40 people) in the room, he will have a lot of support in the rural areas of this district, including Orleans County.

Then last night, Jon capped off the last week by receiving the Town of Clarence Democratic Committee endorsement. Again, he went head-to-head with Kryzan and Clarence took Jon. Jon is from Clarence, so he had the home-field advantage and a clear message.

Jon is a great all-around candidate. I will write often about the news from his campaign. It should be a great 9 1/2 months.

Links:

Powers For Congress

Contribute to Jon Powers for Congress

Join Club 26

NY-26: Powers gaining momentum in race for Reynolds’ seat

Here in New York’s 26th congressional district, we have two interesting races developing: A Democratic primary which will decide who gets the right (and/or privilege) to challenge Rep. Tom Reynolds in the 2008 elections.

Those of you who attended YearlyKos know that Iraq War Veteran Jon Powers is one Democratic candidate. I met Jon at the Orleans County Democratic Party picnic in July. I conducted an interview with him at the time for the Journal-Register. It was at that time that I extended my hand and told him that I wanted to work on his campaign.

Powers declared in June and has since traveled throughout the 26th congressional district spreading his message to people. Thanks to his hard work, he already has netted two local endorsements plus a huge national endorsement.  

ENDORSEMENTS

This week, Powers received two local Democratic Committee endorsements. First, on Tuesday, he received the Genesee County Democratic Committee endorsement.

Genesee County Democratic chair Charlie Mallow said of Powers: “I have no doubt that Jon is the most qualified candidate in this race, and the only candidate that is in touch with issues that are important to voters in rural based counties such as ours.”

Then on Wednesday night, Powers visited Orleans County where he was endorsed by the Orleans County Democratic Committee. (NOTE: I am a Democrat in Orleans County. Oddly enough, at the same meeting I was appointed to the Town of Ridgeway Democratic Committee. The Democrats in Orleans County will continue to support Jon and do everything we can to get him elected.)



(Pictured, from left: Orleans County legislator-elect Gary Kent, 26th congressional district candidate Jon Powers, Orleans County Democratic Party chair Sally Rytlewski and former Legislature candidate and newspaper columnist Thom Jennings.)

Orleans County Democratic chairwoman Sally Rytlewski said of Jon: “I’m convinced that Jon Powers will bring a new kind of leadership to Washington,” said Rytlewski in reference to the endorsement. “The career politicians have failed to do the job. The only way for everyday people to bring about change in Washington is by changing who we’re sending to Washington.”

Last month, the Powers campaign announced that General Wesley Clark had endorsed Powers in the 26th district. This is a huge national endorsement for Jon and should say a lot about Jon and the company he keeps. Gen. Clark is an admirable figure and perhaps the smartest military man of our time.



(Pictured, from left: General Wesley Clark with Iraq War Veteran and Democratic candidate in the 26th district, Jon Powers.)

PRIMARY CHALLENGERS

When Jon declared in June, he was all by himself. Jack Davis, who ran against Reynolds twice (2004 and 2006), wasn’t in the race. No one else was in the race either.

Then, Alice Kryzan entered the race. Kryzan (pronounced CRY-ZEN), is an environmental lawyer who is running on such a platform. She associated herself with the local StepItUp group and is pushing for changes in climate change and using alternative energy sources to improve the local economy in Western New York.

But Kryzan also has some “skeletons in her closet,” so to speak. As acknowledged in a recent Buffalo News article about her candidacy, Kryzan defended Occidental Chemical and Hooker Chemical in the Love Canal disaster. In fact, in a 1998 article about a conference held regarding Love Canal, Kryzan was quoted as saying the Occidental and Hooker waste-disposal policies  “were entirely legal and well-ahead of the industry standards of the times.” She also called the Love Canal situation “hysteria” later on.

The other “skeleton,” is the fact that in 2000, she contributed $250 to the Tom Reynolds campaign. (Note: She will be the forth name down in that link.) The question many of us are asking is why, in 2000, did she think he was deserving of her money but here in 2008, she wants to replace him as our representative?

There is also a possibility that the aforementioned Jack Davis may enter the race as well. He has said that in early 2008, he will make a decision. If he enters the race, Davis would have the money (he’s a millionaire) to run a primary and general election campaign. The downside to Davis is that he doesn’t campaign and people don’t really get to know him. He also is a single issue (trade) candidate who was pretty similar to Reynolds when it came to other issues.

If you’re a progressive, Powers is your candidate.

TOM REYNOLDS

Reynolds is a flawed (and beaten) candidate. In 2006, Jack Davis could’ve (and perhaps should’ve) won against Reynolds. Reynolds had the Mark Foley scandal, which really hurt him locally. Davis was also hitting him hard on trade issues, since Reynolds is a free trader.

Reynolds has given people a strong case not to vote for him in 2008. Without fail, Reynolds voted against the State Childrens Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) three times. He also voted against the Employment Non-Discrimination Act of 2007, which prevents discrimination in the workplace based on your sexual orientation. Most recently, he voted against the energy bill put forth by the Democrats, even though he tells people on his website how to save energy!

Reynolds has served this district since 2003. In that time, he has had a very Republican voting record and has voted with the Republicans 91.7 percent of the time in this Congress.

WHY POWERS?

If you’re a progressive, Powers is a no brainer. He is an Iraq War veteran, he’s in touch with the netroots (he told me he wants to get a meeting of all the local bloggers so that we’re all in contact with each other, if we aren’t already) and he is a multi-issue candidate. It would be easy for Jon to be a single issue (Iraq) candidate, but he’s not. When Jon came online and conducted a Blue America chat on FireDogLake, he answered questions about alternative energy, health care, jobs and the economy, etc. In his first response in that chat , Jon said the following:

Thank you so much having me. I am excited to be here as I fully believe the netroots are returning our government to what Abe Lincoln explained as “of the people, by the people and for the people.”

Then, in his second response, he showed how versatile he is:

howieklein @ 6

Jon, welcome to FDL. It’s an honor to have you here. Can you tell us how you would have been different on specific votes than Tom Reynolds?

There are many votes that I would have voted differently than Tom Reynolds as he has voted with George Bush over 90% of the time. Reynolds for the pharmaceutical companies on reimportation of prescription drugs and he also voted against bulk rates for Medicare. Obviously we also stand on different ends of the spectrum over Iraq.

Powers won’t be the guy who is only an Iraq War candidate. He certainly has a lot to say about that issue, since he has seen it for himself, but he also has a lot to say about local and national issues that are affecting us.

Powers is the best candidate we could’ve dreamed of in New York’s 26th. He has been a superb fundraiser, but still could use your help. Club 26 is a group where if you pledge $26 per month until November 2008, you get the chance to take part in monthly conference calls and you get special campaign updates. You can join Club 26 here. If you don’t have deep pockets and want to pledge $5 or $10, go here to contribute.

Jon Powers will be a truly progressive candidate who will represent the ideals of the netroots very well in Congress. Please support him by contributing money to his campaign or by throwing your support behind his candidacy. He will need it for the primary and general elections next year.