Everything that you need to know about Ohio

Ohio is, in reality, a knife edge “purple” state. Voters here (as opposed to bloggers) are kitchen table Democrats (econ issues) but drift rightward on social issues and are extremely susceptible to crafty framing on wedge issues.

The world had to endure the last four years of hell because 118,000 Ohio voters put The Shrub back in office for two reasons. One was Tom Noe’s ill gotten booty (and it WAS MUCH more than what has been revealed) that he pumped into the GOP here and because they came out to vote for The Hate Amendment.

Recently, we have seen press speculation about Rep. Tim Ryan already working on running for Lt. Gov. with Ted Strickland and eventually becoming Gov.

Of course, there’s a back story. Let’s call it “Ted’s Grand Plan.”

Class, let’s review…

The Ohio House in the General Assembly is barely in Dem control but the Senate is an absolute disaster on every level and completely hopeless. We currently control the STATE redistricting board by one vote. If we lose either AG or SoS, (or the Ohio House) control would flip.

Richard Cordray would have been my choice for the US Senate but he agreed to Ted’s request to move into the state AG spot to replace the disgraced Marc Dann. (Thus eliminating one strong contender for the US Senate) Good move in terms of better government. He’ll do a great job.

You’ve gotta remember that Gov. Ted is all in for Lee Fisher as Senator, so with Cordray settled in at AG, that’s one less obstacle for Fisher.

Ryan was the other obstacle. So, Ted offers him the title of governor heir apparent. (Which is, in fact. all this discussion really means.) Ryan (and Ted) are taking the very long view.

Ryan’s current US House is District is one of four obscenely gerrymandered Dem “quarantine” districts that the GOP created at nearly 70% (or more!) Democratic turnout. This was to confine Dem voters to as few districts as possible in order to create as many GOP majority Districts as they could.

The strongly Dem districts are held by Marcy Kaptur, Dennis the Menace, Ryan and Marcia Fudge (formerly held by the late Tubbs-Jones) The latter district is the only one that will survive as such an overwhelmingly Dem district –on the grounds of minority representation.

Ohio will lose two House seats after the current census. Marcy, Dennis and Ryan’s districts will all have to lose some measure of Democratic majority in order to create more Dem majority districts, which cannot be done with these three districts running far too Democratic.

Which is what makes the specter of a Cafaro candidacy so nauseating. If that District becomes even vaguely competitive, she’ll blow it.

[Ed. Note: I would mention that that OH-14 is one of the most closely divided US House Districts to be represented by a GOPer. I say: “blow that sucker right off of the map!” Just eliminate it altogether.]

So here’s the plan: We control the Ohio redistricting process and threaten the GOP with… well… exactly what they did to us. And THAT is our leverage when, during US reapportionment, the Ohio House produces a Dem majority map and the Ohio Senate produces another one of their obscenities.

So had it not been for Judge Brunner’s decision to run for the US Senate, Ted had his plan all worked out. But now, if we lose control of Ohio SoS, the wheels completely come off. That’s why there is already a big hubub over who will run for SoS. Now the buzz is for Franklin County Commissioner Marilyn Brown. (Judge Brunner is supporting her, but I bet Ted was consulted.)

But if you look at the big picture, you can see why people are making these kinds of announcements which seem so far removed from when anything will actually happen.

OK, I’m going back to the real world now..