Quinnipiac (4/1-5, registered voters, 2/10-15 in parentheses):
David Paterson (D-inc): 18 (23)
Andrew Cuomo (D): 61 (55)Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 29 (24)
Carolyn McCarthy (D): 33 (34)
(MoE: ±3.8%)David Paterson (D-inc): 32 (43)
Rudy Giuliani (R): 53 (43)Andrew Cuomo (D): 53 (51)
Rudy Giuliani (R): 36 (37)Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 40 (42)
Peter King (R): 28 (26)
(MoE: ±2.5%)
David Paterson, like Wall Street, seems to be searching for a bottom to his free-fall… and it doesn’t look like he’s found his yet. In February, Quinnipiac found that Paterson would get demolished in a Democratic primary matchup against Andrew Cuomo 55-23, a blowout by any standards. But now that same race has plunged even further, to a 61-18 gulf, to the extent that Cuomo would barely need a flick of his wrist to take out Paterson.
And while Paterson’s favorability and approval ratings weren’t terrible last time, they’ve bottomed out too. His favorability is at 27/55, while his approval rating is 28/60 (down from 45/41 in February). Not only do only 22% think he deserves to be re-elected (63% say no), but only 39% think he should even bother running in 2010, while 53% think he should announce now that he won’t be running. These numbers — especially the self-fulfilling prophecy built into that last set of numbers — are just the type you don’t recover from.
This poll also sees Paterson losing convincingly to Rudy Giuliani, a major change from the tied game seen in February. Giuliani, however, hasn’t taken any visible steps toward running; Rudy is probably looking to jump in only if Cuomo doesn’t get in, as this poll shows that Giuliani would be only a slightly bigger speed bump for Cuomo than Paterson would be. Speed bump honors instead seem likelier to fall to ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, last seen running against Hillary Clinton in 2000. Lazio is exploring a candidacy and has been meeting with GOP powers-that-be upstate.
On the Senate side, Paterson’s appointee Kirsten Gillibrand is still struggling for name recognition, with a 24/11 favorable (with 64% still saying ‘haven’t heard enough’). She still trails Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (who has the advantage of being in the NYC media market) in a primary matchup, although it’s much closer than in February. It’s unclear, though, whether a matchup with McCarthy will ever happen; while McCarthy made the loudest noises at the outset, speculation lately has turned toward other NYC-area Reps. Steve Israel and Carolyn Maloney. Given that Gillibrand, already noted for her fundraising prowess, just released numbers showing that she raised $2.3 million in the first quarter, she may not draw any primary challengers at all.
I believe he said this a few weeks ago, so continuing to poll him against Paterson might be interesting info for us, but I don’t think it’ll budge him to change his mind.
Cuomo’s highest number against Paterson was 67%, and after that he announced he’s not running for Governor.
Suozzi has hinted that he might run, but that was if Paterson wasn’t running for re-election (though that could change). I wouldn’t be surprised either if Cuomo decides to run for GoV anyway despite his stated attention of running for re-election for AG
As for the Senate I don’t think McCarthy will run as as will make way for someone younger, either Israel or Maloney. It will be interesting to see what Israel’s fundrasing numbers are when they come out.
Do we have anyone else aside from Cuomo who could jump in and trounce Guiliani? If all else failed I wonder if Hillary could be prodded into leaving State early to run for Governor.
I don’t think David Paterson has done a bad job. He properly foresaw that this little recession was coming on strong and that it would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.
Now everybody hates him because services and jobs are being cut, and taxes and fees increased. Well, duh. If he had the legal leeway to run a monster deficit and print money in the face of a threatened depression like our team in D.C. is doing, Patterson might still be popular.
Meanwhile, as a liberal, or progressive if you prefer, I like him for presiding over a major advance in the progressiveness of the state income tax, raising the rates on those enjoying six-figure incomes.
And I love Patterson for reforming most of the horrible Rockefeller drug laws. We had to wait 40 years to get a [black] Governor who cared enough about the damage to lives from this racist law to get it undone, and I thank him for that accomplishment. I remember watching Mario Cuomo’s TV ads in his re-election campaign bragging about doubling — DOUBLING! — the number of prison cells in New York State. Not my kind of ‘liberal’, and I decided not vote for him. Unforgivable.
Now Andrew Cuomo has been getting good press for taking shots at some of the corruption on Wall Street. Noting wrong with that. But does it show leadership, or merely garden variety seizing of opportunity?
I’m not saying Patterson will recover politically. I’m not sure any incumbent governor can ride out this recession>depression as unemployment continues to rise, personal assets and incomes erode, state revenues continue to fall, and budget gaps open like the jaws of Hell. It’s been fun to watch the Governator in distress, but it may not be so much fun when the final count is in, given that 28 of the governors are Democrats. We could win Sacramento and still lose our majority of the governors’ mansions.
Sen. Gillibrand has also been demonstrating that she knows which way the wind blows, steering hard to port with her votes in the Senate. That recent New York Times article about her lawyerly hard work a few years back, helping Philip Morris hide its lying about what its executives knew about smoking and cancer, could have splattered her with mud. But it didn’t seem to make a splash, much less stick, due to her solid anti-smoking voting record in Congress. Unless she stumbles badly — and she doesn’t seem the kind to stumble — I’m betting that the ambitious Catholic school girl from Upstate will be nominated and elected in 2010.
Gov. Paterson was loudly booed at a Buffalo Bisons game yesterday. He was there to throw out the first pitch. WNY is developing a very anti-incumbent mood. Polls show Gov. Paterson and Erie County Executive Chris Collins in really bad shape. People are luke warm about Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown