• MN-Sen: After the court-ordered opening of the 351 previously rejected absentee ballots, Al Franken’s lead just grew to 312 votes (up from 225 votes after the hand recount). Although the Minnesota Supreme Court still has to rule on some miscellaneous issues (the possibility of some double-counts), these questions affect fewer than 300 ballots, meaning that it is now mathematically impossible for Norm Coleman to prevail.
• RI-Gov: After backing off and saying he wouldn’t decide anything until May, it seems like Lincoln Chafee has turned around again and has officially formed his exploratory committee. He will be “putting together a plan that will lay the groundwork for an Independent campaign for governor in 2010.”
• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter has come out firing against Pat Toomey’s likely primary challenge… and he’s already shooting blanks. He had to pull down and revise his attack ad for a factual error. He had accused Toomey of having traded credit default swaps while a Wall Street trader in the 80s (turns out CDSs hadn’t been invented yet at that point). Trying a new tack on today’s Morning Joe, Specter said that Toomey is too conservative to win statewide, accusing him of being “to the right of Rick Santorum.”
• AR-Sen: Looks like Wal-Mart may have sent Blanche Lincoln a cheap Chinese-made horse head for her bed. Lincoln, who supported the Employee Free Choice Act last time it came up, has announced she won’t be supporting it this time around, at least “in its current form.” Even if Franken gets seated and Specter flip-flops again, this probably defers EFCA until after 2010 (unless it passes in a gutted form).
• NV-Sen: John Ensign is making his first speaking appearance in Iowa later this spring. Signs of a presidential run? Possible, considering the paltry lot the GOP has on tap so far. This is of SSP interest primarily because Ensign is up for re-election in 2012 and would leave behind an open seat in this newly blue seat in order to run.
• IL-Sen: Big first-quarter haul for Treasurer (and Friend of Barack) Alexi Giannoulias, the only announced candidate for IL-Sen so far. He pulled in $1.1 million, none of which was from corporate PACs.
• FL-Sen: When asked for his assessment of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s job performance, Democratic Senate candidate Kendrick Meek dodged the question, telling the St. Petersburg Times that “I haven’t yet reviewed his work”. Sharp answer! (J)
• FL-Gov: Hey, pallie – you better watch it! Charles Bronson says he’s going to run for governor of Florida if Charles Crist runs for the Senate. And you thought Charles Bronson was dead! Wrong again, pallie! (D)
• FL-02: State senator Al Lawson, who’s primarying Allen Boyd from the left, seems like he won’t be pulling punches in going after Boyd. Lawson (who’s said a few Blue Doggish things of his own in the past) says “From my perspective, a Blue Dog is just a closet Republican,” and is “committed to being a true Democrat.”
• LA-Legislature: There were three special elections in Louisiana legislative races over the weekend (a Democratic senate seat in Opelousas, a Democratic house seat in New Orleans, and a GOP house seat in Baton Rouge suburbs). Despite the GOP contesting all three seats, Democrats held the line in their two open seats (including one to replace Don Cravins, who’s moved to Washington). The candidates in both runoffs will be Democrats, meaning Dems will hold their 4-seat edge in the senate and 1-seat edge in the house.
• IL-05: It’s special election day in the dark, dark blue 5th. Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley faces off against GOP activist (and Minutewoman) Rosanna Pulido and a Green party candidate. In a big surprise, SSP will not be liveblogging the results.
But Ted Stevens conviction has been thrown out, as it was expected to, due to prosecutorial misconduct.
I sort of felt that the self-imposed May deadline was still there for Linc. Lotta dudes create exploratory committees that go nowhere (though I’d bank on Linc running).
I am not comfortable going after incumbents in swing districts absent exceptional circumstances. FL-02 has an SPVI of R+5.5. http://www.swingstateproject.c… It’s to the right of NY-20, which is basically a 50-50 district for us in an open seat race and a united party. This strategy hurt Republicans and I hope the party does not go down the same road.
looks like the Dems actually have a 23-16 majority in the state senate.
btw, it is supremely satisfying to see that Ensign is looking to bail. A failed presidential run is an easy way to gracefully depart the scene.
http://www.politickerny.com/ta…
would look like Winston Churchill compared to the lame Republicans currently making noise about running. We’d likely pick up a seat, which would be great, but it could also be great for Obama if a rational mainstream conservative is attacked in the primaries by the more wingnutty candidates.
Also wanted to say Im very happy that Vermont now has same sex marriage, as the legislature overrode Douglas’s veto. I use to only be pro-gay marriage if it was the voters who approved of it in a referendum but im now for it whether its the courts who rule in favor of it or the legislature.
Bunning loses to any Democrat.
PPP tests him against Mongiardo and Conway, as well as potential candidates Chandler and Luallen, and finds Bunning goes down to all of them. Moreover, the incumbent senator has a 28% approval rating.
Actual results to be released tomorrow apparently. Again, I’m worried he is imploding too fast. If he weakens any further, he invites primary challengers. Starting to remind me of Alaska Gov. Frank Murkowski back in 2005. I thought we had that one in the bag, and then well…things changed.
As I posted yesterday, Dubose Porter (D-Dublin) the GA House Minority leader announced he will be running for Governor in 2010.
Very folksy guy who has served since 1983 from a tough rural GA district in middle Georgia.
Is that in the GOP state lege race in LA, the candidate backed by Bobby Jindal got crushed:
http://www.nola.com/news/index…
Oops, I didn’t notice the story in this thread when I commented in the thread below.
Taking
betspredictions here. Which race will be resolved first?