Murphy on the Edge of Victory!!!

Check this link out, http://www.elections.state.ny…. .

I’m looking at it and can’t see how Murphy can lose in the end. He’s gained a total 39 votes so far in counties he didn’t even win in the election day results. Add in another 24 from Essex and 12 from Dutchess, subtract 18 for Otsego and Greene, but then add another 57 from Columbia.

Three counties have yet to report, Warren and Washington which were both overwhelmingly for Murphy, and Saratoga which saved Tedisco time and again last Tuesday. And none of this is taking into account the votes that Tedisco is frivlously challenging because they were cast by multiple home owning voters who are registered to vote in Columbia but live downstate mostly; there is a legal precedence for this. A Dkos diarist estimated through a little number crunching that this cost Murphy another 40 or so votes.

I’ve got my fingers crossed. Nate Silver’s called this for Murphy but I’m afraid of getting my hopes up too high.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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27 thoughts on “Murphy on the Edge of Victory!!!”

  3. Warren has reported at least some numbers, at the moment Tedisco leads on paper ballots there 34-30, a place Murphy won on voting day by a fairly large margin. Murphy probably can’t afford to fall behind in any counties, since he was behind before the start of counting of absentees. I’m just going to hope everything goes well but not accept anything yet.

    http://www.elections.state.ny….

  4. I certainly wouldn’t bet on Tedisco at this point.  One of the keys is Saratoga County which has yet to report absentees. Tedisco probably has to run up a big advantage there to have a chance.  Another key is Washington County which also has yet to report.  With the machine votes, this was actually Murphy’s best county, topping Columbia by 56.63% to 56.29.  Murphy need to do very well there with the absentees.

  5. As mentioned, Murphy has been doing much better than all the CW suggested, (much to our relief).

    A credible explanation is in this comment to TPM’s latest reporting on NY-20:

    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…

    Murphy’s campaign manager just finished managing Gillibrand’s re-election in this District and has access to the absentee voter turnout organization from last fall PLUS whatever is available from the NY State Democrats and allied groups–unions, NARAL, etc. Gillibrand’s opponent did not run much of a campaign and I doubt if there was much of an absentee voter effort plus there was none from the NY state Republicans or McCain in this district. You cannot put together an absentee voter campaign over night if you start essentially from scratch. Murphy had the advantage of being able to reactivate a solid organizational effort–and that can be done overnight when it comes just a few months later.

  6. 1) because of organization.  we’ve worked a lot harder to get them.

    2) enthusiasm – our voters were very enthusiastic in ’08 and wanted to make sure they got a chance to vote – the sooner the better.

    as the MN prtocess and this process has shown, you’re better off voting in person because someone can always find a reason not to count your absentee ballot.

    1. not to fall behind in any counties he won in election day, at least not by too much. If he loses Warren but makes up a significant amount more in Columbia, for example, then he could be all right.

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