Siena College (PDF) (4/13-15, registered voters, March 2009 in parens):
David Paterson (D-inc): 11 (17)
Andrew Cuomo (D): 64 (67)
Tom Suozzi (D): 8
Undecided: 17 (17)
(MoE: ±5.5%)David Paterson (D-inc): 29 (33)
Rudy Giuliani (R): 56 (56)
Undecided: 15 (11)Andrew Cuomo (D): 53 (51)
Rudy Giuliani (R): 39 (41)
Undecided: 8 (9)
(MoE: ±3.8%)
After Siena’s last poll, you might have thought David Paterson had hit rock bottom. Not so. With numbers like these, it would almost be political malpractice if Andrew Cuomo didn’t get into the race – he’ll never have a better shot. It would also be mostly suicidal for Paterson to stay in, but he hasn’t given any indication that he plans to bail – indeed, he even hired campaign staff.
And one of those hires, pollster Stan Greenberg, probably already told Paterson something which Siena now tells us: Gay marriage is popular in New York State. In fact, it’s supported by a 53-39 margin (and 59-35 among Dems). Those numbers likely explain why Paterson has been pushing this issue hard of late, even though same-sex marriage legislation has little chance of passing the state Senate. It also helps to change the conversation away from the economy and, well, everything else.
(From the Anecdotal Evidence from Queens Dept., I was lucky enough to attend the Mets’ home opener at their new stadium a week ago. A few “distinguished” guests were introduced over the PA. I had never heard boos as loud as those I heard for Paterson – except until they announced Shelly Silver, who even I booed. Mayor Mike, incidentally, was half booed, half cheered.)
Oddly enough, despite the strong pro-gay marriage numbers, Rudy Giuliani (who I still don’t think will run) has decided to aim his first shot across the bow… against gay marriage:
“This will create a grass-roots movement. This is the kind of issue that, in many ways, is somewhat beyond politics,” said Giuliani, a two-term mayor who unsuccessfully sought the GOP presidential nomination last year.
“I think gay marriage will obviously be an issue for any Republican next year because Republicans are either in favor of the position I’m in favor of, civil unions, or in many cases Republicans don’t even favor civil unions,” he continued.
Who even knows who Giuliani is listening to these days. His strategy during the GOP presidential primary was so insane and non-viable that I’m not surprised to see him spouting nonsense. I almost hope he does run, in fact. I’d love to see him get his ass whooped.
(Hat-tip: Political Wire)
I want this thing locked up as a hold for 2010.
has to do little more than extend his hand and the prize will be thrust into it.
Still thinks he’s running for president, doesn’t realize the massive hits to his popularity he’s taken in New York.
Against him, I think Paterson might actually win. I’m not blind, I can read polls, but in a Paterson/Giuliani race I’m not sure whose negatives are going to be worse 19 months from now.
I think a lot of these people telling pollsters they’d vote for Giuliani are just supremely pissed at Paterson. I think many of them would have second thoughts if it actually turned out that Giuliani might be governor.
not to be mean, but what if they both have the same fear of success? who’s left? i’m worried that spitzer might be trying a comeback. him and blago are the only two who have egos possible to contemplate it. also, i hear that fran dreshure still wants into ny-politics, and it doesn’t have to be the senate. none of these sound good.
He’s making tough and unpopular decisions to balance the budget. The economy is bad. And he’s made a blunder or two. Which actually doesnt make him all that different from most of other governors many of whom are having their own awful poll numbers. Patterson has also had labor unions running tv ads for month criticizing some of his cuts.
If they economy starts to turn the corner he does have a real shot at making a comeback. If not as much I dislike Andrew Cuomo we’ll need him in the race.
Can’t say I’m paying much attention to the statewide races until the citywide races in 2009 are over. And by then we should have a clearer picture whether he’ll sink as he’s appearing to do now or swim.
Saying he’s in favor of civil unions doesn’t appeal to the GOP base since I think most Republicans even consider them to be much different from gay marriage. So he’s alienating everybody. Trademark Rudy!
Would have a chance against him in a primary, i bet. Especially since hes been getting some not-so-hateful press lately. But he wont run. In fact he even praised Paterson in that big Newsweek interview Spitzer did.
Was definitely stupid. But, in reality, he didnt stand much of a chance in those key early states IA, NH, SC, FL and MI. Too socially moderate for IA, SC, too pro-gun control for NH (and perhaps too ‘law and order’ given NH’s libertarian nature), and hed split the moderate vote, with McCain, in FL and MI which otherwise might vote for a moderate (i.e. McCain in 2000 in MI and Gov. Crist in FL in 06). And even though he was friends and obviously very fond of McCain he should have went after him the hardest. He was the only other “moderate” in the race. To have any chance at all he had to make McCain irrelevant before any of the caucus/primaries. McCain was, for a time, before he rebounded, but it wasnt because of anything Rudy did.