Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/20-22, registered voters, no trendlines). First up, the gubernatorial race:
Tom Schieffer (D): 37
Rick Perry (R-inc): 52
Undecided: 11Tom Schieffer (D): 35
Kay Bailey Hutchison(R): 57
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4%)
Tom Schieffer’s favorables are at 26-11, Rick Perry’s at 51-43 and KBH’s 64-29. Obviously we’ll want to face Perry if we hope to have much if any chance here. But even though R2K didn’t test the Republican primary, the favorability ratings among the GOP show what other polls have – KBH soars at 86-8 among members of her own party, while Perry sits back at a 76-19 rating. Still, I’m not willing to write Perry off for dead just yet.
And the Senate race:
John Sharp (D): 36
Greg Abbott (R): 43John Sharp (D): 37
David Dewhurst (R): 44John Sharp (D): 37
Michael Williams (R): 34John Sharp (D): 37
Florence Shapiro (R): 33Bill White (D): 36
Greg Abbott (R): 42Bill White (D): 37
David Dewhurst (R): 43Bill White (D): 38
Michael Williams (R): 34Bill White (D): 38
Florence Shapiro (R): 33
(MoE: ±4%)
As you can see, it doesn’t much seem to matter who is paired against whom – the two Dems pull 36-38, while the better-known Rs (Abbott and Dewhurst) get 42-44 and the lesser-knowns (Williams and Shapiro) take 33-34. And this race, of course, might not ever happen, or at least, might not happen for a long time.
You probably also saw the delightful finding that fully half of Texas Republicans want Texas to be an independent nation, and more than half approve of Perry’s secessionist comments. Maybe he’s found a winning campaign issue! Anyhow, who wants to help `em pack?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
Poll-wise, that seems like a pretty decent place for our hypothetical top-tier candidates to start out in in our hypothetical Senate race; given that we haven’t won a statewide race here in some time, this’ll be a tough slog, but this state is slowly trending our way.
for the foreseeable future.
It’s not an accident that no Democrat has won statewide since 1994.
could go a long way in making TX a swing state.
His shot at Perry’s secessionist talk did my heart good. I’m sure he’s a pretty conservative guy, but I’m starting to think his heart’s in the right place and his head is screwed on right (which is more than could be said for the Evan Bayh crowd). He’s not my candidate yet but he very well could be.
Technically correct but misses the bigger picture. First, there’s likely no Senate race unless Hutchison wins the R primary. Second, although Hutchison would be a much stronger general election candidate than Perry, Perry would still be the heavy favorite to win the general if he won the primary. Third, some of us live in Texas and would prefer the lesser of two evils as governor. The worst scenario is Perry as Governor and Hutchison as Senator, which is the likely outcome if Perry wins the R primary. The best realistic scenario is Hutchison as Governor and Sharp/White as Senator.
It’s only 48%.
I saw this today, I’ve watched it repeatedly, and I have laughed everytime!