CA-Gov: Brown Leads Primary Field

Tulchin Research (3/31-4/2, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jerry Brown (D): 31

Gavin Newsom (D): 16

Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 12

John Garamendi (D): 11

Jack O’Connell (D): 6

Other: 4

(MoE: 4.5%)

The rehabilitation of AG and former governor Jerry Brown continues apace; a new-ish poll from Tulchin Research gives Brown a 15-point lead over his nearest competition, San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom. (I’ve never heard of Tulchin before, so although this has the trappings of a public poll, I’m wondering where it originated.) This is a slightly better showing for Brown than other recent polls of this race; two previous polls from February of Dianne Feinstein-free trials runs on the Dem primary gave Brown leads of 4 and 7 (from Field and Lake, respectively).

The poll has some interesting geographical and age crosstabs. The Bay Area and Central Valley are the only areas where Newson is competitive with Brown (Brown leads Newsom 30-26 in the SF market). You might expect LA mayor Antonio Villaraigosa to be competitive with Brown in the Los Angeles area, but he doesn’t seem too popular on his own turf (Brown leads him 36-19 there), which explains his low numbers overall.

Also, as other polls have noted, this is all about age, and who remembers Brown from his first go-round. The youthful Newsom is kicking ass among the 18-39 crowd, beating Brown 29-16 (with Villaraigosa in second at 19). But Brown wins this on the backs of the 65+ demographic, where Brown beats Newson 38-8 (with John Garamendi at 16 and Villaraigosa at 13). With Garamendi’s apparent withdrawal from the race, his relative strength among seniors suggests that his votes may migrate disproportionately to Brown too.

45 thoughts on “CA-Gov: Brown Leads Primary Field”

  1. that California Democrats are far from sold on anyone in the primary field.  That said, most election pundits are putting CA-Gov in the lean-Dem category at least, and I agree.

  2. I remember when he defeated Hahn he looked like one of our brightest progressive stars.  I know about the whole marital affair issue, but that’s usually not enough to destroy a politician.  Has he just been a bad mayor?

  3. Y’know, with the whole not running thing.

    I kinda feel like Brown is riding on having the widest name ID, especially if his support is coming from the elderly, while the youth is not paying attention so much, what with the whole not being as likely to declare party allegiance.

    Overall though, I do favor Gavin Newsom for some reason, both from the standpoint of who I would like to see win and who I think will win. And no, there’s no reason why, just he seems the most telegenic and “real” of the candidates, including how he has not held statewide office before.

  6. Please not Brown again.  He’s moved back and forth on the political spectrum so often who knows what is latest reincarnation will be.

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