It’s about time that we made another assessment of the House open seat picture, wouldn’t you say? Just like we did last time, let’s gather up all of the confirmed and potential retirements/vacancies in the House, as well as the seats that were once considered potentially open, but now are not. We’ve also created a perma-post which you can find here or in the right-hand sidebar under “SSP Resources.” Please note that “age” in our charts refers to the incumbent’s age on election day, 2010.
Let’s do it:
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-07 | Artur Davis | D | D+18 | Running for Governor |
| CA-10 | Ellen Tauscher | D | D+11 | Appointed to State Department |
| CA-32 | Hilda Solis | D | D+15 | Appointed Secretary of Labor |
| FL-12 | Adam Putnam | R | R+6 | Running for Ag Commissioner |
| FL-17 | Kendrick Meek | D | D+34 | Running for Senate |
| GA-09 | Nathan Deal | R | R+28 | Running for Governor |
| HI-01 | Neil Abercrombie | D | D+11 | Running for Governor |
| KS-01 | Jerry Moran | R | R+23 | Running for Senate |
| KS-04 | Todd Tiahrt | R | R+14 | Running for Senate |
| MI-02 | Peter Hoekstra | R | R+7 | Running for Governor |
| MO-07 | Roy Blunt | R | R+17 | Running for Senate |
| NH-02 | Paul Hodes | D | D+3 | Running for Senate |
| OK-05 | Mary Fallin | R | R+13 | Running for Governor |
| SC-03 | Gresham Barrett | R | R+17 | Running for Governor |
| TN-03 | Zach Wamp | R | R+13 | Running for Governor |
It’s only the end of April, and we already have 15 open seats (two of which will be resolved in special elections later this year). Compare today’s situation with our open seat watch from two years ago, when there were only three confirmed open seats (and one of those retiring Reps, Luis Gutierrez, later reneged!). Of course, the big difference is that this cycle is host to a few dozen gubernatorial races — providing ample opportunities for House members (particularly beleaguered Republicans) to escape the DC scene. Indeed, all of the open seats in the above list could be placed in the “movin’ on up” category.
We haven’t even seen any straight-up retirements yet. Last cycle, the dam broke in August with the retirements of Dennis Hastert, Charles Pickering, and Deborah Pryce — that batch was soon followed up with the likes of Rick Renzi, Jerry Weller, and Jim Ramstad. I’m sure we’ll see our share of retirements later this year (and even more statewide runs), perhaps of names from the following column:
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | Don Young | R | R+13 | 77 | Age/Legal issues |
| AZ-03 | John Shadegg | R | R+9 | 61 | Botched retirement attempt in 2008 |
| CA-24 | Elton Gallegly | R | R+4 | 66 | Botched retirement attempt in 2006 |
| CA-36 | Jane Harman | D | D+12 | 65 | Scandal/Possible primary |
| DE-AL | Mike Castle | R | D+7 | 71 | Possible Senate run/Strong challenge |
| FL-10 | Bill Young | R | R+1 | 79 | Age/Strong challenge |
| FL-13 | Vern Buchanan | R | R+6 | 59 | Possible Senate/Gubernatorial bid |
| FL-22 | Ron Klein | D | D+1 | 53 | Possible Senate run |
| FL-25 | Mario Diaz-Balart | R | R+5 | 49 | Possible Senate run |
| GA-01 | Jack Kingston | R | R+16 | 55 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| GA-08 | Jim Marshall | D | R+10 | 62 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| IA-05 | Steve King | R | R+9 | 61 | Possible gubernatorial bid |
| IL-06 | Peter Roskam | R | EVEN | 49 | Possible Senate run |
| IL-07 | Danny Davis | D | D+35 | 69 | Possible Senate run |
| IL-09 | Jan Schakowsky | D | D+20 | 66 | Possible Senate run |
| IL-10 | Mark Kirk | R | D+6 | 51 | Possible Senate/Gubernatorial run |
| IL-13 | Judy Biggert | R | R+1 | 73 | Age |
| IN-05 | Dan Burton | R | R+17 | 72 | Primary challenge |
| LA-03 | Charlie Melancon | D | R+12 | 63 | Possible Senate run |
| MD-06 | Roscoe Bartlett | R | R+13 | 84 | Age |
| MI-01 | Bart Stupak | D | R+3 | 58 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| MI-08 | Mike Rogers | R | R+2 | 47 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| MI-10 | Candice Miller | R | R+5 | 56 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| MI-12 | Sander Levin | D | D+12 | 79 | Age/Primary challenge |
| NC-07 | Mike McIntyre | D | R+5 | 54 | Possible Senate run |
| NV-02 | Dean Heller | R | R+5 | 50 | Possible gubernatorial/Senate run |
| NY-02 | Steve Israel | D | D+4 | 52 | Possible Senate run |
| NY-03 | Peter King | R | R+4 | 66 | Possible Senate run |
| NY-04 | Carolyn McCarthy | D | D+6 | 66 | Possible Senate run |
| NY-14 | Carolyn Maloney | D | D+26 | 62 | Possible Senate run |
| OH-18 | Zack Space | D | R+7 | 49 | Possible Senate run |
| OR-02 | Greg Walden | R | R+10 | 53 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| OR-04 | Peter DeFazio | D | D+2 | 63 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| PA-06 | Jim Gerlach | R | D+4 | 55 | Possible gubernatorial/Senate run |
| PA-07 | Joe Sestak | D | D+3 | 58 | Possible Senate run |
| PA-08 | Patrick Murphy | D | D+2 | 37 | Possible Senate run |
| PA-11 | Paul Kanjorski | D | D+4 | 73 | Age/Primary challenge |
| SC-01 | Henry Brown | R | R+10 | 74 | Age/Primary challenge |
| SC-04 | Bob Inglis | R | R+15 | 51 | Primary challenge |
| SD-AL | Stephanie Herseth | D | R+9 | 39 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| TN-09 | Steve Cohen | D | D+23 | 61 | Primary challenge |
| TX-04 | Ralph Hall | R | R+21 | 87 | Age |
| WI-01 | Paul Ryan | R | R+2 | 40 | Possible Senate run |
See anything we missed? Now is a good time to note that shortly after we posted our previous Open Seat Watch, a press flack for Illinois GOP Rep. Judy Biggert sent us the following email:
James-
I noticed your post “Swing State Project:: House Open Seat Watch (2/2/09)”, and I thought you might be interested to know that Congresswoman Biggert has already announced that she will be running for a seventh term. Hope you find this info helpful.
I then followed this up with a request for a link to a press release or a news article on Biggert’s re-election announcement (something I could not find on The Google). We received the following reply:
I’ll have to check around. I’ll let you know.
After three months of radio silence from Camp Biggert, her name is staying on the list. A list of incumbents whose names have been removed from our open seat watch is available below the fold.
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-01 | Jo Bonner | R | R+14 | 50 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| CA-31 | Xavier Becerra | D | D+29 | 52 | Declined USTR/Commerce Sec’y |
| CT-03 | Rosa DeLauro | D | D+9 | 67 | Considered for Labor Sec’y |
| FL-02 | Allen Boyd | D | R+6 | 65 | Declined Senate run |
| FL-14 | Connie Mack | R | R+11 | 43 | Declined Senate run |
| FL-20 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | D | D+13 | 44 | Declined Senate run |
| FL-20 | Robert Wexler | D | D+15 | 49 | Declined Senate run |
| GA-03 | Lynn Westmoreland | R | R+19 | 60 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| KS-03 | Dennis Moore | D | R+3 | 64 | Declined Senate run/Won’t retire |
| KY-06 | Ben Chandler | D | R+9 | 51 | Declined Senate Run |
| MO-08 | Jo Ann Emerson | R | R+15 | 60 | Declined Senate run |
| NC-11 | Heath Shuler | D | R+6 | 38 | Declined Senate run |
| NH-01 | Carol Shea-Porter | D | EVEN | 57 | Declined Senate run |
| OH-17 | Tim Ryan | D | D+12 | 37 | Declined Senate/Lt. Gov. run |
| OK-04 | Tom Cole | R | R+18 | 61 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| PA-13 | Allyson Schwartz | D | D+7 | 62 | Declined Senate run |
| TN-04 | Lincoln Davis | D | R+13 | 67 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| TX-10 | Mike McCaul | R | R+10 | 48 | Declined AG run |
| TX-17 | Chet Edwards | D | R+20 | 58 | Declined VA Sec’y |
http://www.valdostadailytimes….
John Dingell will be 84. He lost his chairmanship and the auto industry issues looklike they will mostly be “solved” (for the worse) this term. He is easily the longest tenured House member having been around since 1955.
Howard Coble will be 79.
Ron Paul will be 75. He’s already retired from the House once. Seems like he might prefer a regular TV gig.
Sam Johnson (TX) will be 80.
Dan Burton will only be 72 but he’s used to being in the limelight and those days seem over.
Frank Wolf will be 79 and is coming off two fairly competitive races.
Zack Space’s chances of running for the Senate are metaphysical (“anything could happen”) and the link that you list doesn’t work.
Not sure why Marshall’s name is up there. That article was is from May of 2008. The Governor’s race has changed quite a bit since then.
I can’t remember where I heard it, but someone was speculating Rush wouldn’t run b/c of age/health issues and just generally having the blahs.
I know Danny Davis has speculated in the media about running for U.S. Senate. I don’t see it.
He hasn’t positioned himself for a U.S. Senate run. He’s not a good enough fundraiser.
If someone told me he was running for Cook County Board President, this I would find more credible.
would be have on the X-axis the point in the election cycle and on the Y-axis the percentage of retirements announced already averaged over the last 40 years (or some other amount of time that is “modern”).
This would allow for some projections of the total number of Congress critters who will ultimately retire.
Republicans averages 23 retirements in the house, Democrats averaged 11. If those are the final numbers for this cycle we would have an additional 14 Republican retirements and 5 Democratic retirements forthcoming.
At the end of April 2007, the same amount of time before the 2008 election Republicans had only ONE announced retirement in the house. They went on to have 29 retirements.
Allen Boyd has an announced primary challenge in the form of Al Lawson, the black Florida State Senate Minority Leader. I am not sure how credible this is since the district’s PVI is Republican leaning and Lawson would be running to Boyd’s left. Also, black turnout will be way down in 2010.
Not that I anticipated any electoral success for him, but whatever happened to earlier talk about Weiner running for New York City Mayor. Has that ever gotten beyond the rumor stage?