Monmouth University/Gannett (pdf) (4/23-27, registered voters, 1/12-14 in parentheses):
Jon Corzine (D-inc): 35 (38)
Chris Christie (R): 39 (36)Jon Corzine (D-inc): 37 (45)
Steve Lonegan (R): 33 (29)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
These polls showing Jon Corzine losing to Chris Christie in the New Jersey governor’s race are getting pretty repetitive, but this one caught my eye because I can’t quite tell whether Corzine is coming or going. On the one hand, Monmouth’s trendlines show marked decline for Corzine, who went from winning by 2 in January to losing by 4 now against US Attorney Chris Christie, and barely beating former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan instead of stomping him. Corzine’s favorables are also down to 43/47, down from 49/38 in January.
On the other hand, Corzine didn’t start trailing in any polls until January, and a 4-point deficit is Corzine’s best showing in months among any pollster. (He was down by 7 in the mid-April poll from Quinnipiac, which actually was improvement over March’s numbers. And he was down by 9 in the early April poll from FDU.) So, I’m wondering to what extent Corzine’s fate is inextricably linked to the economy, and if he, like everything else around us, hit some sort of bottom in recent months and is slowly starting to tick up.
and will being climbing again.
I shutter to think of NJ in GOP hands.
More probable that folks are feeling less likely to support a Republican of any shape or form.
Here comes the extremely low turn out general election where the middle does not even vote or chooses a third party.
Time for Dick Codey to sweep in. . .
It could be that this could be a reflection of that more than anything else.
He’s pretty much dead in the water now. But he’s in a better position to make a comeback than Byrne in ’77 and Florio in ’93.