JMM Research for John Garamendi (dates unknown, likely voters):
John Garamendi (D): 24
Warren Rupf (R): 17
Mark DeSaulnier (D): 13
Joan Buchanan (D): 10
(MoE: ±5%)
Lt. Gov. John Garamendi has been shopping around for the just-right elected office for a long time now, and with Rep. Ellen Tauscher leaving behind an open seat in the U.S. House to head to the State Dept., he might just be ready to settle down. Garamendi got into the race late (after finally pulling the plug on his faltering 2010 gubernatorial campaign), with state Senator Mark DeSaulnier already having gobbled up many key endorsements. Still, Garamendi is in a strong position in his own internal poll, beating his two Democratic opponents combined, DeSaulnier and Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan. (The only other poll of this race was a Buchanan internal from late March which, not surprisingly, gave her the lead.)
Garamendi’s position is largely thanks to his high name recognition: 80% know him, with 35/12 favorables. DeSaulnier is known by 39%, with 16/13 favorables, and Buchanan is known by 45%, with 17/12 favorables. The Republican polled, Contra Costa County Sheriff Warren Rupf, is known by 20%, with 9/9 favorables.
Rupf has not announced for the race, and doesn’t really seem likely to run; he is, however, probably the strongest GOPer in the district. (San Ramon mayor Abram Wilson and former Assemblyman Guy Houston are other Republicans who’ve been linked to this race.) They were polled en masse because in the primary special election, all candidates are listed together in one pool, and if no one candidate receives more than 50% (unlikely with three top-tier Dems in the race), then the top vote-getter from each party advances to the general.
UPDATE: More discussion in californianintexas’s diary.
It’s likely that no one candidate will receive more than 50% of the vote in round 1.
John Garamendi is an experienced politician with proven vote-getting skills. He is also fairly progressive on some important issues without coming off as a wild-eyed lefty (example–he is a supporter of single-payer health insurance). If Garamendi is elected the vacancy in the LtGov position would be filled by appointment of the Governor, subject to approval of the Senate, I think. That seat would be up for election in 2010 (as are all the statewide offices) so we would have a temporary GOP officeholder (Bruce McPherson, maybe?).
If DeSaulnier or Buchanan is elected then there would be a vacancy in the legislature which would have to be filled by special election. In the meantime, we would be short a Democrat in dealing with the ongoing meltdown of CA government. This is importand because of the cockamamie two-thirds requirement to pass anything with revenues in the legislature. Buchanan’s election would have the additional problem of being a swing seat that we could possibly lose in a low-turnout special election. She is in her first term in the Assembly. I understand the appeal of a House seat with no term limits, but it is not her time for this one.
If I lived in this district I would vote for John G. in the special election.
24% is pretty underwhelming for Garamendi, especially since his name ID was 80%. The numbers of DeSaulnier and Buchanan are to be expected, given that both only represent part of the district. I expect DeSaulnier’s support to rise considerably when the campaign begins in ernest — so far, he’s the only candidate to receive ANY endorsements from elected officials in the district, and he’s got strong labor ties and he’s doing well in the money game. Garamendi, judging by his failed gubernatorial race, tends to be clunky on the stump and his numbers are unlikely to rise considerably.
that if Garamendi wins, Schwarzenegger will be able to appoint a replacement Lt. Governor. That’s a little concerning to me.
There was a very good post on the Progressive Connection earlier today discussing some of the flaws in the Garamendi poll. Among them:
1) Overly optimistic turn-out projection and over-representation of Decline-to-State voters as opposed to Dems
2) An unusually high 5% margin-of-error
3) Biographical information about DeSaulnier and Buchanan that was misleading or flat-out false
4) Claims that Garamendi has been endorsed by Bill Clinton
Conclusion: Instead of making a splash, this poll makes Garamendi look desperate.
http://www.theprogressiveconne…