For a few days there, it was looking like PA-Sen had turned from a coup for Democrats to a giant exploding cigar. Not just because Arlen Specter was having great trouble adjusting to Democratic, uh, behavioral norms, but also because GOP pollsters had former Governor and DHS Secretary Tom Ridge not only beating Pat Toomey in the primary, but also beating Specter in the general.
Ridge threw cold water on that idea this morning, issuing this following statement:
“After careful consideration and many conversations with friends and family and the leadership of my party, I have decided not to seek the Republican nomination for Senate,” Ridge said in a statement.
“I am enormously grateful for the confidence my party expressed in me, the encouragement and kindness of my fellow citizens in Pennsylvania and the valuable counsel I received from so many of my party colleagues.”
Without Ridge, GOP efforts to find an anti-Toomey may turn back to Rep. Jim Gerlach, who is looking to bail out of the increasingly blue PA-06 and has launched a gubernatorial exploratory committee, but has been publicly open to switching to the Senate race.
I could see Ridge defeating Toomey, but I don’t know about Gerlach. Can Gerlach defeat Toomey?
The real race is in the Democratic primary now.
Ridge never had the slightest interest in running. The Republicans were just so desperate. I think McConnell and Cornyn started circulating talking pts for members to tout Ridge to the media and then they commissioned that poll fast to try to show Ridge he would be strong. But in the end, this guy was never interested in being one of 40 members in the Senate, and this episode shows just how desperate the NRSC is.
… getting his party’s recruiting together. But with Kirk and Ridge demurring, it’s not going to be terribly impressive. His best recruit is costing his party a larger prize (FL-Guv), and may not even make it out of the primary. I’m guessing that Castle ends up demurring (when a pol talks about either running for a higher office or retirement, that’s not a good sign – see Hagel, Chuck), and Sununu is not looking like he gets in.
Grayson, OTOH, is probably in. Simmons was a fine get. And he has decent second tier recruits in OH and MO (but clear underdogs compared to ours).
To summarize things:
Schumer>Menendez>Cornyn>Ensign>>Dole
Even more reason for Sestak to run now. With the threat of Ridge removed.
Specter may have felt that Ridge and the general election was more of a threat to his reelection than the D primary. With Ridge removed from the equation, the Rs best chance of winning is gone. Thus, Specter may feel more inclined to protect his left flank. All just speculation.
It seems Gerlach is their only real option. I doubt AG Corbett could be persuaded to jump into the Senate contest instead.
The man is a pretty savvy politican, voting just moderately enough to hold his Dem-leaning district, and nuking his 2008 opponent early on (despite him being underfunded and not considered a serious candidate) so he held on despite the Obama wave in Pennsylvania. He’d have a tough time winning a primary, but if he can get through he would have a good chance of winning the general.