A couple of slightly differing reports. The NY Post says:
Long Island Congressman Steve Israel will announce plans to challenge US Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in next year’s Democratic primary as early as tomorrow, several sources said yesterday.
The Suffolk County Democrat, who was first elected to Congress in 2000 and is a member of the Appropriations Committee, told several members of the state’s congressional delegation of his plans to challenge Gillibrand late Friday, congressional sources revealed.
Glenn Thrush at the Politico says Israel will form an exploratory committee rather than launch a formal challenge. These days, that seems to be a distinction without a difference – I haven’t crunched any numbers, but it sure feels like many if not most prominent exploratory committees turn into the real thing. An Israel spokesman, though, is denying that there is any sort of announcement planned for this week.
Supposedly, Carolyn Maloney will soon create an exploratory committee, too. I imagine if one or both of these folks get in, Carolyn McCarthy will bow out, citing her desire to see someone younger challenge Gillibrand (she’s older than both Maloney and Israel). But if either Israel or Maloney are to have any chance, I can’t imagine Gillibrand would be beatable in a three-way race. Someone’s gonna have to give.
Meanwhile, Chuck Schumer, who was busy declaring the other day there would be no primary, is now supposedly backing off. David Paterson is also apparently staying out of things, though if I were Kirsten Gillibrand, I’m not sure I’d want him within a hundred yards of the campaign van. If anything, suggests a canny Maloney confidant, Gillibrand might be forced to support Paterson, since he is her recent patron, after all.
Anyhow, open seat fans & worry-warts: Obama pounded McCain 56-43 in Israel’s suburban Long Island district (NY-02), but its PVI nonetheless fell to D+4 from D+8. Given how Long Island has turned over the last fifteen years, the Dems would have an advantage in any open seat race here. McCarthy’s NY-04, at D+6, would be fairly similar. Maloney’s NY-14, however, would be a mortal lock for the Dems (D+26).
She’s voted very well in the Senate. I don’t see the point of a primary, beyond the upstate/downstate thing, which I will never understand.
There is no need for a primary of Gillibrand.
for any incumbent Democratic Congressman.
She’s got buckets of money and the establishment behind her (though both the popular (Schumer) and unpopular (Paterson) parts). That’s not in and of itself insurmountable (see Lieberman, Joe) but she’s not giving prospective liberal challengers any openings in her Senate voting record (and I don’t forsee a great deal of traction making issue of her House record, which was calibrated to a much smaller constituency).
If nothing else, such a challenge to Gillibrand, assuming she made it through (which I think is pretty likely; she’s got the aforementioned money, and is very telegenic), wouldn’t damage her GE chances; no Republican is going to come at her from the left.
On the other hand, I’d be very concerned if Israel or whoever succeeded in upsetting her and it being perceived as NYC metro giving the finger to the upstate. That could be harmful to Democratic prospects there.
It’s hard to see how he would be any more appealing to the primary electorate than her.
Israel is the male, Long Island, version of Gillibrand. Maloney can provide a clear alternative to Gillibrand. Stay in your seat, Israel.
here in Queens is saying Israel’s threat to run is meant to split the vote and prevent a city Democrat from beating Gillibrand…which seems a little paranoid to me…especially considering Schumer has a ton of pull in Brooklyn and Queens and that, plus her supporters in gay rights groups, would only help Gillibrand in the city.
Other than that, I’m not sure what Israel brings to the table except he’s from downstate, which seems to be the only issue I’m hearing from Democrats about Gillibrand.
Check out her post on Daily Kos today in support of a public healthcare plan.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…
N.Y.’s Junior Senator Gains a Defender: The Senior Senator
I don’t think I’d bet against Schumer re a primary. Those NY pols would have to be pretty gutsy to go against him.
As if by magic, they’ll all probably find a reason to not jump into the Senate race.
Also, I hadn’t realized this, but way back in 2005, Schumer was a behind-the-scenes force in Gillibrand’s win over the Repub incumbent Sweeney:
Please no. Steve Israel would be an even worse senator.
Israel might dominate on Long Island, but I can’t see him making headway in NYC and since he’d be attacking from the right he’d have very little in the way of activist support.
Maloney, meanwhile, is a limousine liberal. LI would probably prefer Gillibrand to her and the same is true of some bits of the city (Weiner and MacMahon’s districts spring to mind). And Gillibrand hasn’t put a foot wrong, so she couldn’t corner the activist support either.
If there’s going to be a successful primary, it needs an issue and it needs the support of either progressive groups or big donors. All there is right now is geography, which might be enough for an open seat, but not for a challenge.
Israel is an ally of his. I take this an explicit threat to Maloney: Run, and the downstate vote will be fairly effectively split.
I think Israel would make a fine senator. He’s got political smarts, and he’s progressive enough. He’s very good on energy issues, which seem particularly important to him.
That’s not to say that Gillibrand would not or does not make a good senator. She has adapted some of her views to satisfy her new statewide constituency. One can argue about whether those those shifts should be characterized as as flips or as a proper function of someone in a representative democracy. I think Israel would have fewer changes in position. For some people, it may not matter as long as the voting outcomes are what voters prefer; others may want more consistency.
Also, I’m tired of the upstate/downstate, gender, ethnicity stuff. Should it really be so hard to just vote for the person who we think is going to do the best job? If it’s two people from downstate, fine. If it’s two people from upstate, that’s good with me too. Or two men. Or two women. Buy I’ll take actual or potential job performance over any of those other factors.
If Israel does decide to jump in, look the Majority Leader of the Suffolk County legislator, Jon Cooper, (D-Lloyd Harbor) who has also expressed interest in the Senate seat to set his sights on the open seat in NY-2. Cooper, btw is openly gay and recently married his longtime partner in Connecticut.