California Special Election Preview

One nice thing about writing for a blog that focuses on downballot issues is that you’re never that far away from an Election Day. Today it’s California’s turn; the marquee event is the race in open CA-32 to replace the new Secretary of Labor, Hilda Solis. There are also six of ballot measures dealing with various budgetary issues, almost all of which are unpopular across the political spectrum and headed for defeat.

The two heavyweight contenders in CA-32 are Board of Equalization Chair (and former Assemblywoman) Judy Chu, and state Senator Gil Cedillo. Both are reliably liberal, so the election is more a question of tone, and what sort of coalitions the candidates can cobble together. This district, located in the San Gabriel Valley in the suburbs immediately east of Los Angeles, has a Latino majority (63%) but a large Asian bloc (22%, with non-Hispanic whites making up 11%).

Despite the district’s demographics, Chu has taken on something of frontrunner status in recent weeks in the eyes of observers at The Hill and NPR. Chu has a fundraising edge and some of the most valuable endorsements. This includes the endorsement of the state Democratic Party, as well as United Farm Workers co-founder Dolores Huerta and some key Latino politicians, such as LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and Rep. Loretta Sanchez. (Cedillo has the endorsements of most of the other Latino Reps. in the area, such as Xavier Becerra, Joe Baca, and Linda Sanchez, as well as the LA County Young Democrats.)

In addition, Cedillo having gone significantly negative in the last few weeks indicates he may be feeling a loss in momentum… not just negative against Chu, but also likely third-place candidate Emanuel Pleitez, a 26-year-old rising star who was a member of the Obama transition team, suggesting that Pleitez is eating into Cedillo’s Latino base.

Besides the district’s ethnic composition, Cedillo has one other ace in the hole. The main Republican opposition in the race is also named Chu: Monterey Park City Councilor Betty Tom Chu (who apparently has some sort of grudge with the other Chu, and may be in the race at least partly as an attempted spoiler). Cedillo’s main hope, though, is to maximize Latino turnout, so this race (in the prohibitively expensive LA media market) is being fought entirely on the ground.

This election is run as an all-party primary, with all candidates listed together (with party ID) in one big pool. If no candidate breaks 50% total (which, with 12 candidates in the race, seems unlikely), the top finisher from each party advances to a July 14 runoff. In a D+15 district, though, any Republican opposition in the runoff would be a formality for Chu or Cedillo (although that could wind up prolonging the Chu vs. Chu confusion).

Finally, there are also six statewide ballot measures, Propositions 1A through 1F. A SurveyUSA poll released yesterday indicates that five of the six are headed toward defeat by wide margins; the only one in danger of passing is 1F, which blocks pay raises for legislators when the state budget is running a deficit; ‘yes’ is up 48%-38%. 1A is the nefarious one that especially deserves to go down, creating a TABOR-style spending cap. (1B is an education funding measure that is made irrelevant if 1A fails; 1C allows the sale of state bonds secured by lottery revenues; 1D and 1E re-allocate funds intended for childhood and mental health programs. None are good.)

As if that weren’t enough, there’s also an election in the vacant 26th Senate District, a safe Democratic seat in Los Angeles where Curren Price is expected to win. We’ll put up an open thread with links to returns as it gets closer to poll closing time. In the meantime, if you have predictions, feel free to have at it in the comments.