Rasmussen Reports (5/27, likely voters, mid-May in parens):
Chris Christie (R): 46 (39)
Steve Lonegan (R): 35 (29)
Undecided: 15 (29)
(MoE: ±5%)
The primary is tomorrow, June 2nd, and Chris Christie has led in every single public poll of the race:
Rasmussen has actually shown some of the closer results we’ve seen, and the trendline shows Lonegan closing a bit, but Christie still looks to be in command. The conventional wisdom says Corzine would be better off against the far-right Lonegan – the DGA went so far as to run ads bashing Christie in the hopes of bolstering Lonegan, Gray Davis/Crisitunity-style – but a win for the former Bogota, NJ mayor seems unlikely. Of course, it’s possible pollsters have badly misjudged the nature of Jersey’s likely GOP voters circa mid-2009, and indeed this same group has gone with wingers over moderates in the past (see Brett Schundler, 2001).
Either way, we’ll be here tomorrow to liveblog the results.
P.S. Daily Kos/Research 2000 polled the general and found exactly the results you’d expect.
UPDATE: A new FDU poll also shows a big Christie lead – 54-30.
It looks like Christie will hang on. There’s an FDU poll out today that has him ahead by over 20%. I expect the final margin will be under 10%.
Christie will hold on and the Governor’s house is lost.
I am voting tomorrow for Christie. I cannot stand Looneygan.