Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) (5/26-30, likely voters, early May in parens):
Dan Onorato (D): 29
Tom Corbett (R): 34
None/other: 4
Undecided: 32Arlen Specter (D-inc): 46 (42)
Pat Toomey (R): 37 (36)
None/other: 4
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±3.7%)
This is the first poll I’ve seen of the Pennsylvania governor’s race; it’s from Susquehanna, a Republican pollster (this poll doesn’t seem to be taken on anyone’s behalf, although the early May Senate trendlines are from a poll on behalf of pro-business PEG PAC), so take with salt as needed. As expected, it shows a very tight race, giving a slight edge to Republican AG Tom Corbett over Democratic Allegheny County Exec Dan Onorato. With very high undecideds, a lot of this seems to be about name recognition, and Corbett benefits by being a statewide official.
But, looking at geographical crosstabs, Onorato performs very well where he’s well-known, giving him a lot of room to pull into the lead once he’s better known. While Corbett actually leads 28/27 in the Dem-leaning Philadelphia suburbs, Onorato leads 51/29 in the Pittsburgh area, which is where both Corbett and Onorato are from. Also, bear in mind that this may not be the matchup in November 2010; on the Democratic side, there’s also Auditor Jack Wagner (also from the Pittsburgh area), while for the GOP, there’s former US Attorney Pat Meehan and Rep. Jim Gerlach (both from the Philly burbs).
On the Senate front, no surprises: Arlen Specter leads ex-Rep. Pat Toomey by a comfortable but not huge margin of 9, up from a gap of 6 in the previous Susquehanna poll. The most recent Quinnipiac poll from last week, as well as a month-old POS poll, both found a 9-point spread as well (although R2K and a month-old Quinnipiac found the margin over 20).
The poll also took a subsample of Democrats, and while they inexplicably didn’t ask about the possible Specter/Joe Sestak matchup, they did ask whether should face a primary challenge to earn his rightful place in the party. Dems approved of the primary challenge, 63%-28%.
Helps to give the lie to the idea that Corbett is the runaway favourite.
As for the Sestak omission, I suspect that’s because they know his name recognition is low enough that he’d still be down by 20 points at the least. Asking the question they did sticks the knife into Specter much more.
Are those the best numbers a Republican pollster could give A.G. Tom Corbett?! He just might be too much of a partisan Republican to be elected governor of Pennsylvania. The race will clearly be fought in the Philly suburbs. What else is new?
He seems to lack the qualities that made Tom Ridge and Arlen Specter such powerful, popular Pennsylvania Republicans. Even against a second-tier guy like Onorato, I think we’re favored.
For all the PA residents here, who would be the better candidate: Onorato or Wagner? Not being from PA, all I can say is that both look like strong candidates to me.