Research 2000 for the Great Orange Satan (6/1-3, likely voters, 5/18-20 in parens):
Terry McAuliffe (D): 26 (36)
Brian Moran (D): 27 (22)
Creigh Deeds (D): 30 (13)
Undecided: 17 (29)
(MoE: ±5%)
This is the third public poll (of the last four) to show Deeds grabbing the lead, but with the number of undecideds as high as they are and the primary voter ‘verse as uncertain as ever, the nomination is effectively a three-way jump ball right now. It would be quite the Cinderella story if Deeds could pull this off.
Meanwhile, McAuliffe is rolling out an endorsement from a surprising source: Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer… who is also serving as the chair of the Democratic Governors Association this cycle. The DGA, in case you’re not familiar, is the campaign and fundraising arm for Democratic gubernatorial candidates across the country. While Schweitzer’s people are claiming that he’s only making a personal endorsement, doing so while serving as DGA chair is misguided and unacceptable — especially when the chances are very real that McAuliffe won’t end up being the Democratic nominee on Tuesday. When you’re in the position that Schweitzer is in, the only smart and sensible move is to remain neutral until the nominee is decided by the primary electorate.
And I won’t even begin to get into the issue of McAuliffe being about as antithetical as possible to the populist, DC-despising image that Schweitzer has carefully crafted for himself over the years…
After reallocation of support.
I like Creigh but figured he never had a chance so I never considered voting for him (If I was a Virginia voter) and would have voted for Terry.
Now that it is ready to go and Deeds looks like he can win, I’d change my vote from Terry to Creigh.
Once again, anyone but Moran is my choice.
This last minute come from behind third-to-first in the polls by Deeds is quite exciting to be witnessing.
who has spent more than half of 2009 in VA for business reasons (SW of Richmond) I can tell you I was confident that if Creigh could get his message out he would win this thing. VA is almost a perfect shade of purple and everyone South of Richmond and West of Norfolk have a certain discomfort and unfamiliarity with “big city folk” (seriously, the folks I work with out there act like people like me, from the Bay Area, are from another country).
I have been supporting Creigh for a while (I sent him another $100 last week), but honestly never thought he would have the time or money to get his message out. I am thoroughly excited to see these latest polls. Everyone at work knows I am politically obessesed and Ive been pushing Creigh on all of them whenever they ask me a question about who I would vote for if I had the chance. I haven’t met the man yet, but if you ever get a chance to see him speak, its worth it. The man is seriously wonkish and just captivating enough to hold your attention.
I never had a problem with Terry or Brian’s politics, but their style on the stump and their campaigns immediately turned me off. Creigh is engaging and his folksiness works in the areas of VA with which Im most intimately familiar. I would probably never volunteer my time for Terry or Brian, but if I keep travelling out there and Creigh wins this thing I will definitely put in my 10 hours at work and go do another 8 for Creigh.
Im sure you guys have heard enough of my love for Creigh by this point, but I will say one last thing: Creigh is the real deal (so is Joe Abbey for that matter) and I am truly thrilled to see how this has developed.
GO CREIGH!
this race would have been if a few hundred people had voted the other way (or voted) in 2005; Deeds would be AG, and probably the presumptive nominee, and McDonnell might not even be running.
I’m filling out my absentee ballot right now. I am voting for Creigh Deeds. But I looked on his website and couldn’t determine who he was supporting for Lieutenant Governor. Does anyone know who is the best of the 3 candidates? I am trying to decide between Michael Signer and Jon Bowerbank. I am not voting for the woman because she is guaranteed to lose like the female Democrat LG nominee did in 2005 (VA voters won’t vote for women…see Hilary Clinton as well).
The Schweitzer endorsement reminds me that, although he was neutral during the Democratic primaries last year, he also seemed (at least to me) a bit more hostile towards Obama and more favorable towards Clinton, and I’d always wondered about why. At the time, I guess I thought that Schweitzer simply didn’t like Obama (for political or personal reasons) but couldn’t actually endorse him for fear of annoying the Democratic electorate in Montana (Obama would ultimately go on to win Montana by close to 20 points in the primary).
This has me thinking that, for whatever reason, Schweitzer seems to be fond of Clinton (and perhaps, by extension, Clinton’s people). But that’s just a passing thought on my part.
…McAuliffe.
Is he trying to win a primary election, or just collecting friends to brag about how much the cool kids love him?
I’m a Virginia Dem primary voter and a campaign activist (albeit not volunteering for the Gov primary), and even if I weren’t I have enough political sense to know that these endorsements from other states’ Governors, who are not even in neighboring states, only rub some voters the wrong way and are completely ignored by the rest.
Terry should’ve told Schweitzer “just write me a fat check and keep quiet.”
I’m a Deeds voter now after having been undecided until a month ago and still only leaning until this week, and crap like this only reinforces my view that McAuliffe doesn’t understand the Virginia electorate.
I can see Virginia from my house (in the winter anyway, when the leaves are off the trees); a street in my neighborhood is named “Virginia View Court.” Even though I’m not a Virginian, I’ve followed the campaign closely.
At the start of this race, I had ranked my preferences as (1) Moran, (2) MaAuliffe and (3) Deeds. Now, if I were a Virginia voter I’d go with McAuliffe. Moran has just run a horrible campaign, and Deeds is just too conservative for my taste.
Crafted image or not, I’ve always seen him as one of the good ones. Leaving aside the McAuliffe’s history and his myriad problems, I just hate the idea of these party honchos playing kingmaker, whether it’s in this race, on either side of the Pennsylvania Senate keruffle… heck, I even understand the complaints of Marco Rubio’s followers in Florida. Let the people decide. If things are getting hard, cowboy up and get the job done already. That’s how you become a better general election candidate…
On the other hand, it would be classic Terry not to have learned that lesson from 2008. Hey, if he wins the nomination, maybe he’ll bring in Mark Penn as his polling guru! Awesome.